The Political Puzzle Of Power Distribution In Afghanistan

Afghanistan is a landlocked country in Central Asia, bordered by Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and China. It is a highly centralised presidential system with a weak central government. The country has endured over 40 years of conflict, from the 1978 Communist coup and 1979 Soviet invasion, to the civil war in the 1990s and the US-led war to topple the Taliban.

The country's political institutions have been undermined by an insurgency waged by the Taliban, violence, corruption, and flawed electoral processes. The Taliban overthrew the elected government in 2021 and closed the country's political space, demonstrating their intolerance for political opposition and severely restricting the rights of women and minority groups.

Determining how power is distributed in Afghanistan is a major challenge to peace. The Biden administration's strategy for Afghanistan involves the rapid formation of a new coalition government, with power-sharing between the Taliban and elements of the previous administration. However, this concept is met with scepticism, given the Taliban's history and deeply conservative ideology.

To achieve peace, a democratic and decentralised system of governance has been proposed, with power distributed more evenly to avoid a resort to violence in the contest for control. This would involve strengthening the parliament and creating a prime minister position, as well as empowering local governments and allowing for direct elections for governor and mayor positions.

Vertical power-sharing

Some support a highly centralized system, where power is concentrated in the hands of a strong central government. They argue for further strengthening the current system, which gives significant authority to the president, including control over the military and legislative affairs.

On the other hand, there are calls for greater regional and provincial autonomy. Proponents of this view advocate for elected governors and locally controlled administration of policing, taxes, resources, and the judiciary. They believe that devolving more power to the subnational level while retaining Afghanistan's unitary character can address decentralization and center-periphery tensions.

A third perspective suggests limited decentralization or "de-concentration," acknowledging the constraints in local capacity and resources but seeking to attenuate control from the central government.

The debate around vertical power-sharing in Afghanistan is part of the broader discussion on how to establish a sustainable peace and address the country's diverse and complex political landscape.

Horizontal power-sharing

Afghanistan's highly centralised presidential system has been criticised for concentrating too much power in the office of the president, creating a "winner-take-all" dynamic that makes the position a "too-valuable prize".

To avoid this problem, some have suggested implementing horizontal power-sharing by creating a prime minister position and thereby establishing three official centres of power: the president, the prime minister, and the speaker. One of the first two positions might be selected by a Ulema Council to ensure religious involvement in the government, with the other position and the speaker being elected. Any new law would require the support of both the legislative and executive branches of government.

Other suggestions for horizontal power-sharing include strengthening the parliament and allowing for direct elections for governor and mayor positions.

Economic power-sharing

Afghanistan has a highly centralized presidential system, which has led to a sense of "winner-take-all" politics. While efforts have been made to include various ethnic, geographic, and political groups through appointments, there is a lack of formal mechanisms to share power. This has resulted in too much power being concentrated in the presidency.

Employment and Investment Opportunities: The state controls a significant amount of employment and investment opportunities. Those in power can use the distribution of jobs as a form of patronage. While this can lead to corruption, it can also be a legitimate policy tool to boost employment and promote economic development.

Procurement Processes: Transparent and rule-based procurement processes are essential to prevent corruption. However, there may be opportunities to direct and restrict these processes to achieve specific policy objectives and benefit various groups. For example, providing loans to former combatants from opposing sides to start small businesses together.

Economic Development and Foreign Investment: Afghanistan has sought to attract foreign investment to improve its economy, particularly in the agriculture, energy, and mining sectors. The country holds over one trillion dollars in proven untapped mineral deposits. However, continuous war and political instability have deterred business investors.

Natural Resources and Trade: Afghanistan is rich in natural resources, including extensive deposits of minerals, natural gas, and oil. The country has established trade routes with neighbouring and regional countries, such as Pakistan, Iran, India, China, and Central Asian nations.

Infrastructure and Development Projects: Afghanistan has several ongoing national mega-projects, such as the Qosh Tepa Canal project and the New Kabul City development. There are also smaller development projects in various cities, including Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Jalalabad.

Banking and Finance: Afghanistan has a central bank, Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB), and several local banks. The country's currency is the Afghani (AFN), which has an exchange rate of around 70 afghanis to 1 US dollar.

Tourism: Afghanistan's tourism industry is gradually increasing, despite the country's reputation for danger. The country has several tourist attractions, including historical sites, natural parks, and cultural landmarks. However, tourists are advised to avoid areas where armed criminals may be present.

To promote economic power-sharing in Afghanistan, it is essential to address the concentration of power in the presidency and encourage the distribution of economic resources and opportunities among diverse groups. This can be achieved through various reforms and initiatives, such as strengthening the parliament, creating a prime minister position, and promoting local economic development.

Women's rights

Since the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, women's rights have been severely restricted, with the country experiencing the most serious women's rights crisis in the world. Women and girls have been banned from attending secondary school, working in most sectors, appearing on TV, or even going to a park. They are also prohibited from travelling more than 75 km without a male chaperone and are forced to adhere to a strict dress code.

Under the Taliban, women and girls are discriminated against and denied their fundamental rights and freedoms, including the rights to education, work, health, freedom of movement, and freedom from fear and want. The Taliban's restrictions on women's employment in the private sector, including the closure of beauty salons, have resulted in the loss of thousands of jobs for Afghan women. The ban on women working in most roles in aid agencies is also putting more women and girls in crisis, as they often go without aid if women are not there to deliver it.

Women who protest these violations face enforced disappearance, arbitrary detention, and torture. The Taliban continue to commit severe abuses against women's rights defenders, including widespread detention of women and girls accused of not wearing a "proper hijab".

The situation for women in Afghanistan has deteriorated significantly since the Taliban's previous rule from 1996 to 2001. During that time, women and girls were banned from going to school, leaving the house without a male chaperone, showing their skin in public, accessing healthcare delivered by men, and being involved in politics or speaking publicly. Domestic violence against women was common, and women who suffered rape and other forms of violence could be accused of 'moral crimes' and punished by stoning.

Despite international intervention and progress towards equality in the years following the Taliban's ouster in 2001, discrimination against women remained widespread in Afghanistan. The country was named 'the most dangerous country' for women in 2011. With the Taliban's return to power, hard-fought gains in equality and human rights for women are being steadily dismantled.

Legislative power

Afghanistan's legislative power has been unstable for decades, with frequent coups, civil wars, and violent transfers of power. The country has been governed by various systems of government, including a monarchy, republic, theocracy, dictatorship, and a pro-communist state.

The legislative process in Afghanistan has changed significantly since the Taliban took control in 2021. The Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GoIRA) was established under the 2004 Constitution, which defined the powers and functions of the executive, judiciary, and legislative branches. The legislative process for a law proposed or drafted by the government or executive branch during the GoIRA comprised several steps. First, entities belonging to the executive branch of the government, such as the ministries, had the authority to draft a law. The legislative process during the GoIRA included several steps, such as drafting, review, confirmation, approval, endorsement, publication, and enforcement. The legislative process under the Taliban, however, is less clear and largely uncertain. The Taliban have issued decrees and made administrative changes, but the status of laws adopted under the GoIRA is unclear. The Taliban have neither confirmed nor rejected the enforceability of the previous laws.

The legislative process under the Taliban appears to be more centralized and opaque. The Supreme Leader has issued decrees and made appointments within the administrative branch. The legislative process now involves a government entity requesting a law, forming a committee, and referring the initial draft to the Ministry of Justice for review. The Ministry of Justice then produces a final draft, which is reviewed by an independent commission before being presented to the Supreme Leader for endorsement. The legislation is then enforced by the executive branch. However, the Taliban legislative process does not include consultations with the private sector or civil society organizations, which has caused uncertainty and concerns about the country's economic growth and foreign investment.

The Taliban's views on a new constitution suggest that the previous dastur, or basic law, was never intended to be permanent. Influential Taliban members have indicated that a new constitution would be drafted through an open consultative process rather than being imposed unilaterally. While they have stated that it would outline an Islamic state, there is room for negotiation, and some interviewees have left the door open to a constitution similar to the 2004 Constitution. An exploratory committee on drafting a new constitution was formed in early 2022, but no updates have been provided.

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