The Complex Dynamics Of Azerbaijan-Iran Relations

Azerbaijan and Iran's relationship has been strained for years, with the two countries sharing a tumultuous history. The two countries share a border and a mutual past, with Azerbaijan having the second-largest Shi'i population in the world after Iran. Both countries are members of Muslim and regional organisations, such as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. However, their relationship has been marked by conflict, with Iran supporting Armenia in the first Nagorno-Karabakh war, resulting in Armenia occupying a sixth of Azerbaijan's territory.

Azerbaijan has accused Iran of sending oil and other goods, and even weapons, to separatist authorities in Karabakh. Iran, on the other hand, is anxious about the proposed Zangezur Corridor, which could cut off its access to Armenia and other destinations. Iran is also wary of Azerbaijan's growing friendship with Israel, which has provided Baku with military support.

Despite the tensions, there are signs that the two countries are working towards normalising their relationship. In October 2023, Iran's road and urban planning minister, Mehrdad Bazrpash, stated that Azerbaijan's embassy in Tehran could soon resume its work. Additionally, the two countries are working together on a transit corridor and have taken steps to improve embassy security.

Azerbaijan and Iran's relationship is at an all-time low

Azerbaijan has accused Iran of favouring Armenia in the decades-long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. In January 2023, a gunman attacked the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, killing one embassy staffer and wounding two others. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev directly blamed "some branches of the Iranian establishment" for the attack and demanded that those responsible be brought to justice before normalising relations. This incident marked a significant deterioration in the already strained relationship between the two countries.

Another source of tension is Azerbaijan's growing friendship with Iran's arch-rival, Israel. Israel has supplied Baku with weapons, including drones, and other military equipment, which were used to recapture the Nagorno-Karabakh region from Armenian control. Israel has also opened an embassy in Baku, signalling a strengthening of diplomatic ties between the two countries. Iran does not officially recognise Israel and has accused it of having designs on sabotage and unrest within its borders.

The proposed "Zangezur Corridor", which would connect mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave, is another point of contention between the two countries. Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey aim to develop east-west infrastructure and trade routes, which Iran believes will cut it off from the South Caucasus and land routes to Russia. Iran, on the other hand, is keen on maintaining north-south trade routes and has opposed the Zangezur Corridor.

Additionally, Iran is concerned about Turkey's expanding geopolitical influence along its northern border, particularly the strengthening of relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. This has further strained relations between Iran and Azerbaijan, as Iran feels encircled by Turkish influence.

Despite the tensions, there have been recent efforts to defuse the situation and normalise relations. Both countries have expressed a desire to boost bilateral ties and have taken steps such as constructing a cargo terminal in Astara, exchanging news agency correspondents, and pledging to improve embassy security. However, given the ongoing mistrust and geopolitical competition, it remains to be seen whether these efforts will lead to a sustainable improvement in the relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran.

Azerbaijan and Iran share a border and have cultural similarities

Azerbaijan and Iran share a border of 618 kilometres (or 689 kilometres according to another source) and have cultural similarities. The two countries share values from their mutual past and elements of a common culture. For example, Azerbaijan has the second-largest Shi'i population in the world, after Iran. Both countries are members of Muslim and regional organisations like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and ECO.

The two countries also share similarities in their languages. Iranian Azerbaijanis are Iranians of Azerbaijani ethnicity, and most are bilingual in Azerbaijani and Persian. Iranian Azerbaijanis are native to the Iranian Azerbaijan region, including the provinces of East Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan, and West Azerbaijan, and they constitute a significant minority in Tehran, Karaj, and other regions.

The two countries' shared border consists of two non-contiguous sections separated by the Armenia-Iran border. The border starts in the north-west at the tripoint with Turkey on the Aras River and continues along this river southeastwards. Crossings between mainland Azerbaijan and Iran are at Bilasuvar and Astara.

Despite the shared border and cultural similarities, the relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran has been strained. In January 2023, Azerbaijan evacuated its embassy in Tehran after a gun attack that left one staffer dead and two wounded. However, there are signs that tensions are abating. In October 2023, Iran's road and urban planning minister, Mehrdad Bazrpash, said that Azerbaijan's embassy in Tehran could resume its work soon.

Azerbaijan's ties with Israel are a source of tension with Iran

Azerbaijan's close ties with Israel have been developing since the early 1990s, with Israel providing military and security support to Azerbaijan, including during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. Azerbaijan is also a major oil supplier to Israel.

In recent years, Azerbaijan has opened an embassy in Tel Aviv, and Israeli President Isaac Herzog has visited Baku, triggering alarm bells in Tehran. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has also discussed the "regional security structure that is threatened by Iran" with Herzog.

The strengthening of Azerbaijan-Israeli relations has caused a strain in the relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran, with the latter launching large-scale military exercises along its border with Azerbaijan, and the former conducting military exercises along the Iranian border in response.

The two countries have also engaged in a series of tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, and there have been attacks on each other's embassies, with Azerbaijan evacuating its embassy in Tehran following a deadly gun attack in January 2024.

Iran is concerned about being cut off from the Caucasus region

The Zangezur Corridor would also open a long-sought trade route to Turkey and beyond, bypassing Iran entirely. This would diminish Iran's role as a potential regional transit hub and make it excessively dependent on Ankara and Baku for the security of its northern borders. Furthermore, Iran is concerned that Baku could forcibly seize territory in southern Armenia to create territorial continuity with Nakhchivan, which would further isolate Tehran.

In response to these concerns, Iran has conducted war games and drills near the Azerbaijani border and has openly criticized the Zangezur Corridor project. Tehran's reaction stems from the strategic importance of the corridor's location, as it borders Iran, and the potential impact on its influence in the region.

The establishment of the corridor is not just a matter of trade and transit routes but also has geopolitical implications, with Moscow supporting the project as a way to reclaim influence in Armenia. The corridor is seen as a threat to Armenian sovereignty and has contributed to Yerevan's efforts to strengthen ties with the West and distance itself from traditional ally Russia.

While there have been efforts to de-escalate tensions, such as Baku dropping its demand for the corridor from peace talks, the situation remains fragile. Iran's growing influence in the region, coupled with Russia's reliance on Tehran, has created a complex dynamic that could lead to further instability if not carefully navigated.

Azerbaijan and Iran have a history of conflict

The roots of the conflict can be traced back to the early 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The newly independent Republic of Azerbaijan and Iran share a border, and up to a third of Iran's population is made up of ethnic Azerbaijanis. Despite sharing cultural and religious ties, the two countries have been in conflict over territorial disputes and differing geopolitical interests.

One major source of tension is the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which has been the subject of a decades-long conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Iran has supported Armenia in this conflict, as it fears that Azerbaijan, together with its ally Turkey, aims to cut off its access to the Caucasus region and Russia. In 2020, Azerbaijan recaptured the region with the help of Israeli- and Turkish-made drones, further straining relations with Iran.

Another point of contention is the proposed "Zangezur Corridor", which would connect mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave. Iran opposes this corridor as it believes it will cut off its access to Armenia and other destinations to the north. It also views the growing friendship between Azerbaijan and its arch-rival, Israel, with concern.

In January 2023, a deadly attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran further escalated tensions. Azerbaijan accused Iran of being behind the attack and evacuated its embassy staff. Reciprocal expulsions of diplomats have also taken place.

While there have been recent efforts to defuse tensions and improve bilateral ties, the relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran remains complex and fraught with challenges.

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