The Conflict Between Armenia And Azerbaijan: War Explained

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in conflict over the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh to Armenians, for decades. The region is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but its 120,000 inhabitants are predominantly ethnic Armenians, who have their own government. The conflict has its roots in the collapse of the Soviet Union, of which both countries were members, and has resulted in two wars and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. The most recent escalation, in September 2023, saw Azerbaijan launch a military operation to retake the territory, leading to a ceasefire and the eventual dissolution of the breakaway republic. The conflict has the potential to escalate further, with both sides remaining at odds over issues such as border demarcation and transport links.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

In April 2016, intense fighting at the line of separation killed hundreds on both sides. In September 2020, full-fledged war resumed, ending in November with a ceasefire brokered by Russia. Azerbaijan regained control of the seven districts adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh and a substantial part of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. The rest is patrolled by a Russian peacekeeping force but still governed by self-proclaimed local authorities.

The front line after the 2020 war became longer and more volatile, with opposing military positions separated by only 30-100 metres. The Russian peacekeeping mission’s outposts were deployed along the main roads in Armenian-populated areas of the conflict zone and the main traffic artery between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, including inside the Lachin corridor.

In December 2022, Azerbaijan began blockading Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to severe shortages and rationing for residents. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive, resulting in a ceasefire agreement and the dissolution of Artsakh on 1 January 2024. Most ethnic Armenians fled, and Baku plans to “reintegrate” the region and its remaining population into Azerbaijan.

Ethnic and territorial tensions

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians. The region was established by the Soviet Union in 1923 as an autonomous oblast within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic, despite its population being 95% ethnically Armenian.

Throughout the Soviet period, Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast faced heavy discrimination from Soviet Azerbaijani authorities. Armenian culture and identity were suppressed, and Armenians were pressured to leave the region, while Azerbaijanis were encouraged to settle within it. Despite this, Armenians remained the majority population.

In 1988, the region's legislature voted to join the Republic of Armenia, and a referendum was held to transfer the region to Soviet Armenia, citing self-determination laws in the Soviet constitution. This was met with a series of pogroms against Armenians across Azerbaijan, and violence was committed against both Armenians and Azerbaijanis. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, resulting in tens of thousands of refugees and casualties.

The war was won by Armenia and the breakaway Republic of Artsakh, leading to the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding regions. A ceasefire was signed in 1994, resulting in two decades of relative stability. However, tensions escalated again in the 2010s, leading to a large-scale Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 that resulted in a significant Azerbaijani victory and the capture of one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive and regained full control of the region, leading to the dissolution of the ethnic Armenian enclave in January 2024. The conflict has resulted in deep-seated ethnic tensions and a ongoing border crisis between the two countries.

International mediation

In 2020, the European Union (EU) stepped up its involvement in the region, particularly as Russia shifted its focus to the war in Ukraine. The EU has acted as a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with high-level tripartite meetings organized under the auspices of the President of the European Council, Charles Michel. The EU has also intensified its presence through the active involvement of the Special Representative for the Caucasus and the deployment of a civil monitoring mission in Armenia, known as the European Union Advisory Mission (EUAM).

Despite these efforts, the EU's mediation faced challenges due to the differing goals and approaches of the conflicting parties. Azerbaijan showed no intention of reaching a negotiated deal and pursued a military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, while Armenia was ready for a peaceful resolution. The EU's stance as a neutral facilitator between the two countries was also called into question as Azerbaijan made irredentist claims to Armenian territory.

In September 2022, violent clashes, including an incursion by Azerbaijan into Armenian territory, prompted the EU to further increase its presence in the region. A new civilian mission, EUMA Armenia, was deployed in February 2023. Under EU mediation, complemented by US talks, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on a longer-term negotiation plan for a comprehensive peace agreement in May 2023. However, experts have differing views on the potential outcome of these talks, with some seeing it as a breakthrough and others warning of potential costs for the population of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.

The ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been the longest-running in the post-Soviet space, with two major bloody war episodes in 1992 and 2020. International mediation efforts, led by various actors, continue to seek a comprehensive political settlement that can bring sustainable peace to the region.

Refugee crisis

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh has resulted in a refugee crisis. The First Nagorno-Karabakh War, which lasted from 1988 to 1994, led to the displacement of approximately 700,000 Azerbaijanis. This figure includes around 500,000 people from Nagorno-Karabakh and the previously occupied surrounding regions, as well as 186,000 from Armenia. Civil unrest in Nagorno-Karabakh in 1987 led to Azeris often being harassed and forced to leave Armenia. On January 25, 1988, the first wave of Azeri refugees from Armenia settled in the city of Sumgait, and another major wave occurred in November 1988 as Azeris were either expelled by nationalists and local or state authorities or fled out of fear.

The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, resulting in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. By 1993, Armenia had gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied 20% of Azerbaijan's geographic area. A ceasefire was signed in 1994, but intermittent clashes and violations have occurred since then, with the most intense fighting since 1994 taking place in early April 2016, leading to hundreds of casualties along the line of separation.

In September 2020, heavy fighting broke out along the Azerbaijan-Nagorno-Karabakh border, resulting in thousands of casualties. A ceasefire was eventually brokered by Russia, France, and the United States, ending the six-week Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. However, periodic violations of the 2020 ceasefire escalated into a two-day conflict in September 2022, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of people and the evacuation of more than 2,700 civilians.

The most recent escalation occurred in September 2023, when Azerbaijan launched a one-day military operation to retake Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in the exodus of almost the entire population of the region in just a few days. Over 100,000 people fled to Armenia, and many have since moved deeper into the country, away from the border and the Azeri forces stationed there. The Armenian government has pledged to fully integrate Karabakh refugees and has provided financial assistance, but it lacks funds and a long-term plan, leaving the displaced people exposed and facing an uncertain future. The refugee crisis has also led to concerns about social friction and homelessness, as well as increased pressure on Armenia's infrastructure and services, such as schools, police, and hospitals.

Border demarcation

In April 2024, Armenia and Azerbaijan initiated the process of demarcating their shared border based on Soviet-era maps, marking a significant step towards a potential peace agreement. This followed an agreement reached in October 2022, where both countries acknowledged that Soviet-era borders should form the basis of border delineation, in line with the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991.

The first concrete step in the demarcation process occurred on April 19, 2024, when Armenia returned four villages within Azerbaijan's de jure border, which had been under Armenian control since the 1990s. This concession by Armenia was met with backlash and protests within the country. Subsequently, on April 23, joint Armenian and Azerbaijani teams commenced surveying a section of the border, and the first boundary markers were simultaneously placed by both countries.

The border demarcation efforts are part of broader negotiations aimed at establishing a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The process has been challenging due to the complex history and ongoing tensions between the two countries, with both sides accusing each other of ceasefire violations and border attacks.

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