Azerbaijan: Unrest, Protests, And A Country's Future

Azerbaijan has been in the news recently for several reasons. The country hosted the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, with a focus on enhancing ambition and enabling action for climate change. In addition, there have been recent developments in the country's long-standing conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. A Russia-brokered truce ended six weeks of fighting in November 2020, with Armenia ceding several territories to Azerbaijan without defining the political status of Nagorno-Karabakh. More recently, in September 2023, Azerbaijan announced it had gained full control over the breakaway region, resulting in an exodus of ethnic Armenians. There have also been protests in Armenia's capital, Yerevan, with people demanding the resignation of the prime minister over territorial concessions to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan's ruling party wins majority in snap parliamentary elections

Azerbaijan's ruling party, the New Azerbaijan party, led by President Ilham Aliyev, has won a majority in the country's snap parliamentary elections. The election, which took place on September 1, 2024, was called by President Aliyev nine months ahead of schedule, with the stated aim of consolidating his authority and accelerating economic reforms.

The New Azerbaijan party was projected to win 63 to 67 out of 125 seats in the parliament, according to exit polls and the Central Election Commission's initial results, based on 91% of the vote count. This result is slightly lower than the 69 seats the party held in the outgoing parliament.

The snap election was the first parliamentary vote in Azerbaijan since the country's lightning offensive to recapture the breakaway territory of Karabakh from ethnic Armenians, who had enjoyed de facto independence since the collapse of the Soviet Union. This victory paved the way for President Aliyev to secure a fifth presidential term in February 2024, winning over 92% of the vote.

The opposition Musavat party participated in the snap election for the first time in 15 years, although they were not expected to win any seats, according to exit polls. The party's leader, Arif Gadzhili, expressed doubts about the fairness of the election, citing a lack of democratic conditions and persecution of opponents outside parliament. International monitors also reported widespread procedural violations, raising doubts about the honesty of the election.

The snap parliamentary election in Azerbaijan occurred against a backdrop of ongoing tensions with neighbouring Armenia, with whom Azerbaijan has fought two wars over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Despite recent moves towards normalising relations and establishing a peace deal, Armenia has faced mass protests over territorial concessions to Azerbaijan, and the two countries have traded accusations of troop build-ups and ethnic cleansing.

Armenia and Azerbaijan agree to return of villages

Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed on the return of several villages in a move towards a peace deal. The agreement was reached at a meeting on the two countries' border, chaired by their deputy prime ministers. Armenia will return four villages near the shared border that had been "under occupation" since the early 1990s, according to Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aykhan Hajizada. He called it a "long-awaited historic event".

The villages in question are Baghanis Ayrum, Asagi Eskipara, Heyrimli and Kizilhacili, all of which were occupied by Armenia during the First Karabakh War of 1988-1994. The handover in practice involves only "two and a half villages" as Azerbaijan already partially controlled some of the settlements. Nevertheless, the demarcation of the border is a significant step towards peace.

The villages are strategically important as they are close to Armenia's main highway north towards the border with Georgia, facilitating much of the country's trade. They are also located near the pipeline through which Armenia receives gas from Russia.

The agreement is a positive development after decades of conflict centred on the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azerbaijan had been demanding the return of these villages as a precondition for a peace deal. In September 2023, Azerbaijan's forces regained control of Nagorno-Karabakh, causing the ethnic Armenian population of 100,000 to flee to Armenia. Russia, which had posted peacekeepers in the region after the last major war in 2020, has begun withdrawing its troops, risking a loss of influence in the Caucasus region. The US and the EU have also been pushing for a peace agreement between the two countries.

Azerbaijan reopens embassy in Iran

Azerbaijan has reopened its embassy in Iran as the two countries work to ease tensions. The embassy in Tehran resumed operations on Monday 15 July 2024, following over a year of negotiations.

The diplomatic mission will work from new premises, with Iran pledging to ensure adequate protection. Baku closed its embassy in January 2023 after an armed attack on the building. The attacker killed the mission's security chief and wounded two other security officials. The suspect was detained, tried in court for a year, and sentenced to death, according to Iran's Justice Ministry.

The incident strained relations between the two countries, with Baku accusing Tehran of supporting hard-line Islamists trying to overthrow its government. In the following months, the countries exchanged the expulsion of diplomats.

Azerbaijan's decision to open an embassy in Israel, Iran's archenemy, also contributed to the deterioration in ties. However, the recent death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash may have been a catalyst for improved relations. Raisi, who forged a close relationship with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, had described the bond between the two countries as "unbreakable".

Armenia announces plan to leave Russia-dominated security alliance

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been high since Azerbaijan took control of the Karabakh region in September 2023, ending three decades of ethnic Armenian rule. Armenia has accused Russian peacekeepers, who were deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh after a previous round of hostilities in 2020, of failing to stop Azerbaijan's onslaught.

In June 2024, amid a widening rift with Russia, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared his intention to pull out of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-dominated security alliance of several ex-Soviet nations. Pashinyan cited the CSTO's failure to protect Armenia, alleging that some of its members had sided with Azerbaijan. He stated that Armenia would leave the CSTO altogether, with the government deciding on the timing of the final move.

Armenia's decision to leave the CSTO comes as the country faces a wave of large protests demanding the prime minister's resignation over the government's decision to turn over four border villages to Azerbaijan as part of peace negotiations. Violent clashes have occurred between protesters and police, resulting in injuries on both sides.

Pashinyan's efforts to deepen Armenia's ties with the West and distance the country from Moscow-dominated alliances have angered the Kremlin. Russia was particularly displeased with Armenia's decision to join the International Criminal Court, which indicted Russian President Vladimir Putin for alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

In response to the announcement, Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan emphasized that Pashinyan hadn't officially announced a full withdrawal from the CSTO yet, attempting to soften the blow to Moscow. There was no immediate comment from Moscow following the statement.

Azerbaijan's Aliyev wins a landslide in restrictive election

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has secured another term in office, winning 92.12% of the vote in the country's recent election. While Aliyev's victory was expected, the election has been criticised by monitors as restrictive, with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) noting the stifling of critical voices and the absence of real political competition.

Aliyev's win comes as no surprise, as his popularity surged following his forces' swift reclamation of the Karabakh region from ethnic Armenian separatists in September 2023. This military success led to Aliyev calling an early election, capitalising on his bolstered image. The election will extend Aliyev's time in office by another seven years, adding to the more than 20 years he has already served as Azerbaijan's leader.

The OSCE's special coordinator and leader of the election observer group in Azerbaijan, Artur Gerasymov, stated that the election "took place in a restrictive environment" and was "marked with the stifling of critical voices". He further noted that Aliyev was "not meaningfully challenged" due to limitations on independent media, civil society, and the marginalisation of other political parties. Gerasymov also highlighted the lack of analytical reporting in the Azerbaijani media, impairing voters' ability to make fully informed choices.

The election results have sparked celebrations among Aliyev's supporters, with people waving national flags and gathering in Baku to commemorate his victory. Aliyev has also received congratulations from various world leaders, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and Iran's leader Ebrahim Raisi.

However, the election was not without controversy. Azerbaijan's two prominent opposition parties, Musavat and the People's Front of Azerbaijan, boycotted the vote, and some opposition members alleged that the election may have been rigged. The decision to hold the election early, soon after the success in Karabakh, has been interpreted as a strategic move by Aliyev to capitalise on his heightened popularity.

Aliyev's tenure has been marked by the introduction of increasingly strict laws curbing political debate and the arrest of opposition figures and independent journalists, even in the lead-up to the recent election.

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