Exploring Azerbaijan's Border Policy With Armenia

The status of Armenians in Azerbaijan is a complex and contentious issue, with a history of conflict and tension between the two groups. Armenians were once the third-largest minority in Azerbaijan, with a population of 120,300 in the 2009 census, but that number has since dwindled due to mass displacements and conflicts over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The conflict over this region first arose in 1988 when Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians campaigned for reunification with Armenia, and it has since been a site of violence and tension, with human rights violations committed by both sides. In 2023, Azerbaijani forces launched a military offensive that resulted in the mass exodus of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the region, and the situation remains precarious for those who remain.

Armenians in Azerbaijan are at great risk due to the ongoing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

The conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region first emerged in 1988 when the region's Armenians campaigned for reunification with Armenia. The area has been claimed by both Armenians and Azerbaijanis, who argue for their historic right to the territory. The campaign for secession from Azerbaijan sparked demonstrations and heightened tensions between the two groups. The violence escalated, and direct rule was imposed by Moscow, with Soviet troops deployed in the region. Despite attempts to calm the situation, the conflict persisted, and Nagorno-Karabakh declared its secession from Azerbaijan in 1991.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991 further complicated the situation, as Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent states with conflicting claims over Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict turned into outright war in 1992, resulting in human rights violations and the large-scale displacement of civilians. Mediation efforts by various parties, including international organizations and neighbouring countries, have been largely unsuccessful. The key stumbling blocks in negotiations include the continued occupation of Azerbaijani territories by Armenian forces, the return of displaced Azerbaijanis, and the status of disputed territories.

The conflict has had a devastating impact on the Armenian population in Azerbaijan. Pogroms against Armenians in cities like Baku and Sumqayit caused an estimated 300,000 Armenians to flee the country in the early 1990s. More recently, in 2020 and 2023, the conflict escalated again, with Azerbaijan launching military offensives and regaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding territories. As a result, tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians were forced to flee the region, fearing persecution and ethnic cleansing. The mass exodus left behind religious sites, cultural heritage, and a small number of Armenians who chose to remain or were unable to leave.

The ongoing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has created an extremely unfavourable situation for Armenians in Azerbaijan. They face discrimination, hate speech, and physical attacks. Official and media discourse often portrays Armenians negatively, perpetuating animosities and contributing to a climate of fear and mistrust. Despite assurances from the Azerbaijani government and calls for the protection of Armenian residents by the International Court of Justice, Armenians in Azerbaijan continue to be at great risk as long as the conflict remains unresolved.

The number of Armenians in Azerbaijan has decreased significantly, with most fleeing to Armenia

In 2009, Armenians were the third-largest minority in Azerbaijan, with a population of 120,300, mainly in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, by the 2019 Census, the official tally for the Armenian minority had reduced to approximately 200 people, with the number in Nagorno-Karabakh uncertain. This drop in numbers reflects the mass displacements that occurred due to conflicts over the region. Further declines in the Armenian population occurred in 2020 and 2023.

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh first emerged in 1988 when the region's Armenians campaigned for reunification with Armenia. The area has historically been designated as Armenian, but these decisions were often revoked, and the area was handed over to Azerbaijan. By 1988, the territory was 75% Armenian, and the campaign for secession sparked demonstrations and violent protests. Attempts at mediation by various parties, including the OSCE Minsk Group, failed to resolve the conflict.

The conflict escalated in 2020 when Azerbaijan won a decisive 44-day Second Karabakh War, regaining control over parts of the region. This was followed by a nine-month blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan, which restricted access to essential goods and services. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched another offensive, resulting in a mass exodus of Armenians from the region. Over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled to Armenia, with the Armenian government reporting that 30,000 of these were children and elderly people.

The Armenian authorities and international observers have characterised this exodus as ethnic cleansing, with Armenians fearing persecution and loss of freedom to practice their language, religion, and customs under Azerbaijani rule. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, has denied these accusations and pledged to respect the rights and ensure the security of the Armenian population. However, the history of conflict and the adversarial narratives perpetuated by both sides have created an environment of distrust and insecurity for the Armenian minority in Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan has pledged to respect the rights of Armenians and protect them from violence and intimidation

Azerbaijan has a history of conflict with Armenia, and the status of Armenians in Azerbaijan is precarious. Armenians have lived in great numbers in Azerbaijan, and its precursor Soviet Azerbaijan, but the ongoing conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has resulted in mass displacement and a sharp decline in the Armenian population in Azerbaijan.

In 2023, Azerbaijan captured the internationally recognised Azeri territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which had been controlled by a break-away state known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic since 1991. This military takeover resulted in almost all Armenians leaving the region, with most fleeing to neighbouring Armenia. The conflict has resulted in human rights violations, indiscriminate shelling, the taking of hostages, summary executions, and the large-scale displacement of civilians.

Azerbaijan's foreign ministry has stated its commitment to upholding the human rights of Armenian residents of Karabakh on an equal basis with other citizens of Azerbaijan. However, many ethnic Armenians who fled the region doubt their safety if they return under Azerbaijani rule. There are concerns about the impact of the conflict on the Armenian minority's cultural heritage, as they have left behind numerous religious sites.

There is widespread hate speech and adversarial narratives against Armenians in Azerbaijani media and society

There is a long history of anti-Armenian sentiment in Azerbaijan, also known as anti-Armenianism and Armenophobia. This has manifested in various ways, from hate speech and discrimination to organised pogroms and state-sanctioned genocide.

Armenians are considered "the most vulnerable group in Azerbaijan in the field of racism and racial discrimination". The word "Armenian" is widely used as an insult in Azerbaijan, and the media often portrays Armenians in a negative light. A 2012 opinion poll found that 91% of Azerbaijanis perceive Armenia as "the biggest enemy of Azerbaijan". This anti-Armenian sentiment is also prevalent in schools, with textbooks labelling Armenians as "bandits", "aggressors", "treacherous", and "hypocritical".

The conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has further fuelled anti-Armenian sentiment in Azerbaijan. In 2023, Azerbaijan forcibly retook the region, causing almost all Armenians living there to leave. This was preceded by a nine-month siege that restricted access to essential goods. Despite the Azerbaijani government's assurances that it is "committed to upholding the human rights of the Armenian residents of Karabakh", many ethnic Armenians who fled doubt that they will be safe if they return.

The opening of the Baku War Trophy Park in 2021, which portrayed Armenian military personnel and equipment in a negative light, raised a lot of criticism and was considered a manifestation of Armenophobia. Additionally, the Azerbaijani government's decision to block entry to foreign citizens who have visited Nagorno-Karabakh without their permission has been criticised as a violation of freedom of movement and a form of discrimination against Armenians.

The widespread hate speech and adversarial narratives against Armenians in Azerbaijani media and society have been condemned by international organisations such as the European Commission against Racism and Intolerance (ECRI) and the United Nations (UN). The ECRI expressed concern about the "constant negative official and media discourse" against Armenia, which fosters "a negative climate of opinion regarding people of Armenian origin". The UN's International Court of Justice (ICJ) has also issued rulings and provisional measures to protect the safety and security of Armenians in Azerbaijan.

Despite these efforts, anti-Armenian sentiment remains prevalent in Azerbaijan, and the country's policies and actions continue to be influenced by a history of conflict and tension between the two nations.

Armenians fear a new war with Azerbaijan despite ongoing peace talks

In September 2023, more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani troops moved in, reclaiming all the lands it had lost in a war triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union. This mass displacement left behind approximately 400 churches, monasteries, and other religious sites.

While Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has spoken of being close to a peace deal, Armenians are worried that their neighbour wants more. They have heard Aliyev refer to Armenia as "Western Azerbaijan" and see it as a sign of imminent invasion. In addition, Azerbaijan has demanded a free railroad corridor through Armenian territory to its exclave of Nakhchivan, and its leader has threatened to take the corridor "by force" in the past.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has extended beyond Karabakh, with clashes occurring along Armenia's recognized border. Cities deep inside Armenia's territory were shelled for the first time in 2022, and Azerbaijani forces advanced into and remain in Armenian territory. An increasing number of civilians in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, are taking up military training run by volunteer organizations.

While both countries are trying to reach a peace agreement and have established a bilateral delimitation commission tasked with agreeing on borders, the history of enmity and war between the two neighbors makes a warm peace seem unlikely. Independent foreign policy expert Zaur Shiriyev believes that all the talk about "Western Azerbaijan" was nothing more than "a tactical manoeuvre aimed at compelling the Armenian side to relinquish claims regarding the rights and security of Karabakh Armenians".

The sense of insecurity among Armenians is also fueled by disillusionment with Russia, traditionally seen as Armenia's security guarantor. Both Russia and the Russian-led CSTO military alliance, of which Armenia is a member, stayed neutral and refused to intervene in the most recent conflict with Azerbaijan. Additionally, Moscow failed to deliver $200 million worth of Russian-made weapons that Yerevan had already paid for. As a result, Armenia has been looking West, hosting joint military exercises with the US and securing weapons sales and officer training from France.

Despite the ongoing peace talks and efforts to normalize relations, the fear of a new war with Azerbaijan persists among Armenians, given the history of conflict, ongoing tensions, and the extension of clashes beyond the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Frequently asked questions