Who Backs Armenia? Global Support And Geopolitics

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has been ongoing since 1988, with the two countries engaging in multiple wars and experiencing rising tensions in recent years. The conflict has resulted in thousands of casualties and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. While both countries have received support from the international community, the extent and nature of this support have varied.

Armenia has traditionally been supported by Russia, which is a treaty ally and has provided military aid, including ballistic missiles and fighter jets. Armenia is also a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led military alliance. However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has distracted and reduced its capacity to support Armenia effectively. Armenia has sought to diversify its military procurements and has received support from other countries, such as India, which secured a $40 million defence deal with Armenia.

On the other hand, Azerbaijan has received support from Turkey and Pakistan, who have backed its position in the conflict. Turkey has provided military assistance and joint drills, while Pakistan has supported Azerbaijan's right to self-defence and its position on Nagorno-Karabakh. Additionally, Israel has been a long-standing partner of Azerbaijan, despite tense relations with Turkey and Pakistan.

The European Union (EU) has also played a role in the conflict, with high-level EU officials visiting Baku and Yerevan and facilitating peace talks. The EU has announced a new civilian monitoring mission to Armenia's border with Azerbaijan, aiming to contribute to stability and build confidence between the two countries. The United States, a member of the OSCE Minsk Group mediating the conflict, has also been engaged in preventing existential threats against Armenia.

The US's role in supporting Armenia

The US has a long history of diplomatic relations with Armenia. It recognised the country's independence in 1991 and opened an embassy in the capital, Yerevan, the following year. The US has also provided significant financial assistance to Armenia, with nearly $2 billion in aid delivered since 1992.

In recent years, the US has played an increasingly active role in supporting Armenia, particularly in relation to the ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan. In 2020, the US, along with Russia and France, attempted to broker a ceasefire between the two countries, although these efforts ultimately failed to stop the fighting.

The Biden administration has taken a more assertive stance on the issue, with the President recognising the Armenian Genocide in 2021 and meeting with Armenian diplomats in 2024 to pledge increased bilateral ties. The US has also initiated numerous meetings with Armenian and Azerbaijani officials to try and de-escalate tensions.

In addition to diplomatic efforts, the US has also provided military support to Armenia. In 2019, the US Department of Defense praised the "selfless contributions" of Armenian armed forces to international operations and peacekeeping missions. Armenia has also participated in joint military exercises with NATO, of which the US is a leading member.

However, the US has to tread a fine line in its support for Armenia, particularly due to the region's complex geopolitics. Armenia is formally part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance led by Russia. The US has to be careful not to provoke Russia, which has its own interests in the region.

Overall, the US's role in supporting Armenia has been characterised by a combination of diplomatic, military, and economic efforts, aimed at strengthening Armenia's position and promoting regional stability.

The EU's role in supporting Armenia

The European Union has been working to strengthen its relationship with Armenia and support the country in its conflict with Azerbaijan. After almost three decades of remaining on the sidelines, the EU has stepped in to act as a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the conflict over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. The EU has facilitated negotiations and hosted summits between the two countries, with the aim of achieving a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The EU's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict represents a shift in the region's geopolitical dynamics, particularly with Russia's declining influence due to its involvement in Ukraine. The EU has deployed civilian monitoring missions to Armenia, contributing to stability along the border and deterring further offensives by Azerbaijan. Additionally, the EU has provided financial support and aid to Armenia, with a focus on economic development and security sector reform.

The EU and Armenia have also strengthened their bilateral ties through agreements such as the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which aims to deepen political and economic cooperation. Armenia has expressed its desire to enhance relations with the EU and has indicated its intention to apply for EU membership in the future. The European Parliament has passed resolutions recognising Armenia's eligibility for EU membership and affirming the shared values and interests between the two parties.

The EU's support for Armenia extends beyond the conflict with Azerbaijan. The EU is Armenia's biggest provider of financial support and a key reform partner. The EU assists Armenia in various sectors, including economic development, security, and democratic reforms. The EU has also contributed to the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Turkey and supported Armenia's integration into European organisations and initiatives.

In summary, the EU's role in supporting Armenia against Azerbaijan involves mediation, conflict resolution, and the promotion of regional stability. Additionally, the EU seeks to strengthen its bilateral relationship with Armenia through political and economic cooperation, while also providing financial and technical assistance to the country.

Russia's absence in the region

Russia has historically been Armenia's primary arms supplier and the two countries are military allies. However, Russia has sought to play the role of a mediator in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, officially maintaining a neutral stance. Despite this, there is a perception that Russia has "consistently supported the Armenian side", and some commentators argue that Russia has "played both sides in the conflict".

Russia has a security pact with Armenia and has cultivated warm ties with Azerbaijan, and has attempted to implement ceasefires in the conflict. In 2020, Russia brokered a ceasefire between the two countries, which quickly fell apart. This tested the Kremlin's position in the region, and Moscow has since faced pressure to take a harder line against Azerbaijan.

Russia has long been Armenia's primary arms supplier, and smaller suppliers include China, India, Ukraine, Greece, Serbia, Jordan, and Belarus. However, in 2022, Russia suspended arms deliveries to Armenia, and signed a "Declaration of Allied Interaction" with Azerbaijan, which elevated military ties between the two countries. This agreement included provisions for joint military operations and mutual defence. Despite this, Armenia purchased Russian weaponry at a discount until 2022, while Azerbaijan has always paid full price.

In June 2024, Russian peacekeepers completed their withdrawal from the Nagorno-Karabakh region. This followed an agreement between President Putin and his Azerbaijani counterpart Aliyev.

Turkey's support for Azerbaijan

Turkey has historically supported Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Both countries refer to their relationship as "two states, one nation," owing to their strong ethnic, cultural, and historic ties. Turkey was the first country to recognize Azerbaijan's independence in 1918 and again in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Turkey has provided military support to Azerbaijan, including training, arms sales, and joint military drills. In 2020, Turkey provided military support to Azerbaijan during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, although it denied direct involvement in the conflict. Turkey has also supported Azerbaijan diplomatically, backing Baku's efforts to build peaceful relations with Yerevan.

The strong Turkey-Azerbaijan relationship is further bolstered by economic ties. Turkey is the main conduit for Azerbaijan's oil and gas exports, and Azerbaijan has become a significant investor in Turkey.

Iran's support for Armenia

Iran's relations with Armenia are cordial, and the two countries are strategic partners in the region. They share cultural and historical ties that go back thousands of years, and there are no border disputes between them. Additionally, the Christian Armenian minority in Iran enjoys official recognition. Of particular importance is the cooperation in the field of energy security, which reduces Armenia's dependence on Russia and could potentially supply Iranian gas to Europe through Georgia and the Black Sea.

During the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Iran denied allegations of supporting Armenia and termed them "baseless rumours". Iranian state television broadcast footage showing that the military equipment in question was being transported by Russian trucks purchased by Armenia before the conflict. Iran has also offered mediation to resolve the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Despite their close ties, there have been instances of tension between Iran and Armenia. In 2020, Iran recalled its ambassador from Baku after objecting to Azerbaijan hosting the Eurovision Song Contest, claiming it would host a "homosexual parade". In the same year, there were protests in Iranian cities, including Tehran and Tabriz, in support of Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Additionally, Iran has expressed concern over Armenia's growing proximity to Israel, which is a red line for Iran's hardliners.

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