Azerbaijan's Blockade: Understanding The Tension With Armenia

Azerbaijan has been blocking Armenia's access to the Nagorno-Karabakh region since December 2022. This blockade has resulted in severe shortages and the displacement of thousands of ethnic Armenians. The conflict between the two countries is an ethnic and territorial dispute over the region, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has a predominantly ethnic Armenian population.

The roots of the conflict can be traced back to the Soviet era, when Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast faced heavy discrimination and suppression of their culture and identity. After the fall of the Soviet Union, a referendum was held in 1988 to transfer the region to Soviet Armenia, which led to violence and the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994). A ceasefire was signed in 1994, but tensions remained, and in 2020, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in a significant Azerbaijani victory and an armistice.

Since then, there have been ongoing border clashes and violations of the ceasefire agreement, with Azerbaijan accused of occupying internationally recognised Armenian territory and instigating cross-border fights. The blockade of the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, has been a critical issue, with Azerbaijan justifying it under the guise of environmental protests. The lack of Russian support during this crisis has also prompted Armenia to reevaluate its security alliances.

The conflict has had a significant impact on the region, with thousands of lives lost and displaced, and ongoing tensions threatening further escalation.

Azerbaijan's anti-terrorist activities in Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijan's anti-terrorist activities in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which it launched on 19 September 2023, were part of a military offensive against what it called "terrorist provocations" by Armenian forces. The operation, which Azerbaijan's defence ministry said targeted only military structures, was aimed at "disarming and securing the withdrawal" of Armenian troops and "neutralising their military infrastructure".

The offensive included shelling parts of the mountain enclave, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but controlled by ethnic Armenian authorities backed by Armenia. Azerbaijan's foreign ministry said peace could only be achieved once Armenian troops left and the separatist local authority was dissolved.

Azerbaijan said it was using high-precision weapons to target only legitimate military targets and that it had created humanitarian corridors for civilians. However, the operation prompted thousands of civilians to flee the region, with more than 100,000 people, almost the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh, escaping to Armenia in just one week.

The offensive marked a major escalation of hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which have fought several conflicts over the region. The two countries have a long history of ethnic tension, and the Nagorno-Karabakh region has been at the centre of that conflict, resulting in two wars and a series of intermittent clashes since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The most recent large-scale conflict prior to the 2023 offensive was in 2020, when Azerbaijan, with military support from Turkey, launched a 44-day military operation that resulted in a resounding victory and a significant expansion of Azerbaijani-controlled territory. A Russian-brokered ceasefire ended the fighting, but tensions remained high, with Azerbaijan accusing Armenia of fuelling separatism and refusing to recognise its sovereignty.

In the lead-up to the 2023 offensive, Azerbaijan had imposed a blockade on the region, cutting off the flow of people and goods between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan claimed it was preventing weapons smuggling, but the move sparked a humanitarian crisis, with food, fuel, and medicine shortages affecting the region's residents.

The anti-terrorist activities of the 2023 offensive were part of Azerbaijan's broader campaign to "reintegrate" Nagorno-Karabakh and its remaining population into Azerbaijan, despite warnings from human rights organisations and genocide scholars that the blockade and military operations could amount to ethnic cleansing.

The region's disputed status

The region of Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh by Armenians, is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan. However, the region's 120,000 inhabitants are predominantly ethnic Armenians, who have their own government, close to Armenia, but not officially recognised by Armenia or any other country. Armenians, who are Christian, claim a long presence in the area, dating back to several centuries before Christ. Azerbaijan, whose inhabitants are mostly Turkic Muslims, also claim deep historical ties to the region, which over the centuries has come under the sway of Persians, Turks and Russians.

Under the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh became an autonomous region within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. However, Armenians in the region were heavily discriminated against by Soviet Azerbaijani authorities, who worked to suppress Armenian culture and identity in Nagorno-Karabakh, pressuring Armenians to leave the region and encouraging Azerbaijanis to settle within it.

As the Soviet Union crumbled, the First Karabakh War (1988-1994) erupted between Armenians and their Azeri neighbours. About 30,000 people were killed and more than a million displaced. Most of those were Azeris driven from their homes when the Armenian side ended up in control of Nagorno-Karabakh itself and swathes of seven surrounding districts.

In 2020, after decades of intermittent skirmishes, Azerbaijan began a military operation that became the Second Karabakh War, swiftly breaking through Armenian defences. It won a resounding victory in 44 days, taking back the seven districts and about a third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

The use of drones bought from Turkey and Israel was cited by military analysts as one of the main reasons for Azerbaijan's victory. At least 6,500 people were killed.

In December 2022, Azerbaijani civilians identifying themselves as environmental activists began blocking the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Artsakh to Armenia and to the outside world. In April 2023, Azerbaijan set up an official checkpoint, saying it was preventing weapons smuggling. The flow of people and goods between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh was largely cut off.

Azerbaijan further tightened access to Nagorno-Karabakh, banning even Red Cross convoys from passing through the Lachin Corridor to the region over alleged smuggling of unsanctioned products. Azerbaijani security forces also detained an individual passing through a checkpoint for medical care in Armenia, leading to a suspension of medical evacuations for critically ill patients.

On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched an "anti-terrorist" offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, saying it wanted to restore constitutional order and drive out what it said were Armenian troops. Karabakh officials said at least 200 people died in the operation, which Azerbaijan said was aimed at neutralising Armenian military installations. Within two days, Azerbaijan claimed to have regained full control over the region.

Azerbaijan has since rescinded its offer of special status or autonomy to its ethnic Armenian residents and instead insisted on their "integration" into Azerbaijan. In 2023, Azerbaijani President Aliyev said that Armenian residents of Nagorno-Karabakh must be "reintegrated" as "normal citizens of Azerbaijan" and that "the [special] status [for Armenians] went to hell. It failed; it was shattered to smithereens. It is not and will not be there. As long as I am president, there will be no status."

Despite being offered Azerbaijani citizenship, Artsakh residents did not trust Azerbaijan's guarantees of security due to the country's history of human rights abuses, Armenophobia and lack of rights for ethnic minorities. Various human rights observers, scholars specialising in genocide studies, and politicians considered the blockade of Artsakh a form of ethnic cleansing and warned of the risk of genocide.

The border crisis

In addition to the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, there is also an ongoing border crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan. On May 12, 2021, Azerbaijani soldiers crossed several kilometres into Armenian territory in the provinces of Syunik and Gegharkunik, occupying between 50 and 215 square kilometres of internationally recognised Armenian territory. This was followed by significant incursions along the Armenia-Nakhchivan border in July 2021 and in the Gegharkunik-Kalbajar area in November 2021.

In August 2021, Azerbaijani forces blockaded southern Armenia by closing the main north-south highway, effectively isolating Armenia from Iran and forcing the creation of alternative transportation routes. The most severe confrontation took place in September 2022, marking the largest attack by Azerbaijan on Armenia in the history of their conflict, resulting in casualties on both sides.

Azerbaijan has not withdrawn its troops from internationally recognised Armenian territory despite calls to do so by the European Parliament, United States and France – the latter two of which comprise two of the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group.

Azerbaijan argues that it cannot be accused of occupying Armenian lands without official border demarcation. However, critics argue that Azerbaijan's actions undermine its official narrative of "territorial integrity", noting that the country has increasingly promoted expansionist territorial claims against sovereign Armenian territory, distinct from Nagorno-Karabakh.

The role of Russia and other international actors

Russia has a defence treaty with Armenia and is ostensibly Armenia's security guarantor. However, Russia's war in Ukraine has distracted it from its role as a guarantor of security in the South Caucasus, and many in Armenia feel betrayed by Russia's failure to intervene in the conflict with Azerbaijan.

In June 2024, Armenia announced its withdrawal from the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), which was established in 1992 and includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as members. Armenia has since been forced to fill the gap in security by forging new friendships, with India emerging as its top weapons supplier, followed by France.

Armenia has also been diversifying its foreign policy beyond mere security, signing a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU in 2017 and agreeing to deepen this cooperation via a new EU-Armenia Partnership Agenda in February 2024. Armenia is also trying to deepen its cooperation with the US, with President Joe Biden announcing plans to upgrade the existing bilateral strategic dialogue into a strategic partnership.

However, for a former Soviet satellite, things are never so simple. The Kremlin is clearly concerned by Armenia's perceived Western tilt, prompting a Russian foreign ministry spokesperson to warn in March 2024 that Yerevan's current course may "create serious risks for the sovereignty of the republic".

The search for a peaceful resolution

Negotiation and mediation efforts, primarily led by the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), have failed to produce a permanent solution to the conflict. The Minsk Group was created in 1994 to address the dispute and is co-chaired by the US, France and Russia. Although the group has successfully negotiated ceasefires, territorial disputes remain as intractable as ever.

In July 2024, European Council President Charles Michel urged Armenia and Azerbaijan to finalise a peace agreement amid rising tensions, following Azerbaijan's recent offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and ongoing border disputes.

The risk of further

The role of peacekeepers

However, the effectiveness of the peacekeepers has been called into question on multiple occasions. In December 2022, Azerbaijan initiated a blockade of the Lachin corridor, cutting off the flow of people and goods between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Despite criticism and calls for intervention, the peacekeepers did not take active measures to resolve the blockade. This inaction has been a source of tension and criticism, with some accusing the peacekeepers of failing in their duties and being unable or unwilling to fulfil their mandate.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in a mass exodus of the Armenian population. The peacekeepers were once again criticised for their inaction during this offensive, with reports suggesting that they stood idly by as Armenians were forcibly expelled from the region. This has led to a loss of trust in the peacekeepers' ability to ensure security and maintain stability in the region.

Additionally, there have been allegations of the peacekeepers being pro-Armenian or pro-Azerbaijani, with both sides accusing them of favouring the other. These accusations have further eroded confidence in the impartiality and effectiveness of the peacekeeping mission.

The presence of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh is also influenced by broader geopolitical dynamics. Russia's war in Ukraine has distracted its attention and reduced its ability to project power in the region. Additionally, Armenia's decision to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine and conduct joint military drills with the United States has strained its relationship with Russia. These factors have contributed to a perception that Russia's commitment to peacekeeping in Nagorno-Karabakh may be wavering.

In conclusion, the role of peacekeepers in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has been complex and controversial. While the peacekeepers were intended to maintain stability and prevent further conflict, their inaction during critical incidents has led to criticism and doubts about their effectiveness and impartiality. The broader geopolitical context, including Russia's war in Ukraine, has also impacted their role and raised questions about their long-term presence in the region.

The impact on civilians

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has had a devastating impact on civilians in the region, with both sides suffering casualties and displacement. Here are some key ways in which the conflict has affected civilians:

Displacement and Refugees:

The conflict has resulted in significant displacement of civilians, with many fleeing their homes to seek safety. In December 2022, Azerbaijan imposed a blockade on the Nagorno-Karabakh region, leading to a humanitarian crisis. Over 100,000 Armenians were forcibly expelled, and those who remained faced severe shortages of food, medicine, and essential supplies. The blockade also disrupted education, with schools being closed due to the lack of resources.

Fear and Trauma:

Civilians on both sides have experienced fear and trauma due to the conflict. Many refugees, even those who have found safety in Yerevan, continue to live in fear of future attacks. Gayane Movsisyan, a 55-year-old former army worker, recounted how Azerbaijani soldiers told her, "Where are you going? We are going to attack Armenia soon. Do you think you're escaping?" The constant threat of violence has left deep psychological scars on the affected populations.

Loss of Life and Injury:

The conflict has resulted in the loss of civilian lives and injuries. During the September 2022 attacks by Azerbaijan, at least 105 Armenian soldiers and 71 Azerbaijani military personnel were killed, with many others wounded. Additionally, the use of heavy weaponry and drones has resulted in civilian casualties, with reports of children being among the victims.

Limited Access to Essential Resources:

The conflict has disrupted access to essential resources for civilians. The blockade imposed by Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh severely impacted the region's access to food, fuel, and medicine. The disruption of supply chains has led to shortages and rationing, affecting the most vulnerable members of society.

Economic Impact:

The conflict has had a detrimental effect on the economies of both countries, which has, in turn, impacted the livelihoods of civilians. The disruption of trade, transportation, and normal economic activities has resulted in unemployment and financial hardship for many.

Human Rights Violations:

There have been reports of human rights violations committed by both sides during the conflict. Azerbaijani security forces have been accused of kidnapping, torture, rape, and executing Armenian civilians in border regions. These actions have created an atmosphere of fear and insecurity among the civilian population.

Destruction of Cultural Heritage:

The conflict has also resulted in the destruction of cultural heritage sites and infrastructure. Schools, homes, and other civilian buildings have been damaged or destroyed during the fighting, affecting the social fabric and sense of community for civilians.

International Travel Advisories:

Due to the ongoing conflict, several foreign embassies, including those of France, Britain, and the United States, have issued travel advisories against visiting southern Armenia and border areas. This has impacted the tourism industry and further isolated the region economically.

The impact of the conflict on civilians has been profound, and the consequences will likely be felt for years to come. The displacement, trauma, and economic hardship endured by civilians will require long-term support and recovery efforts to help them rebuild their lives and communities.

The international response

The international community has responded to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in various ways, with some countries and organisations taking a more active role in attempting to resolve the dispute and others being more passive.

The United Nations

The United Nations has been involved in attempts to resolve the conflict, with the UN General Assembly adopting a resolution in 2008 that reaffirmed Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and demanded the immediate withdrawal of Armenian forces from occupied territories. However, this resolution was opposed by several countries, including Armenia, Russia, the United States, and France.

The United States

The United States has provided military aid to both Armenia and Azerbaijan, although the amount of aid has varied over the years. Between 2005 and 2016, Azerbaijan received significantly more military aid from the US than Armenia. However, in recent years, the Trump administration increased military aid to Armenia, and the Biden administration has announced plans to upgrade the bilateral strategic dialogue between the two countries to a strategic partnership. The US has also provided humanitarian aid to the region, although this has been criticised by Azerbaijan as legitimising the "illegal regime" in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The European Union

The European Union has also been involved in the conflict, with the EU sending a civilian monitoring mission to Armenia to contribute to stability along the border and deter offensives by Azerbaijan. The EU has also signed agreements with Armenia, such as the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement and the EU-Armenia Partnership Agenda, to deepen cooperation and establish more links for trade and investment.

Russia

Russia has played a significant role in the conflict, as it has a defence treaty with Armenia and also maintains good relations with Azerbaijan. Russia brokered a ceasefire in the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1994 and again in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. However, Russia's role as a mediator has been called into question, as some accuse it of favouring Armenia. In recent years, Armenia has sought to distance itself from Russia and forge new friendships, particularly with Western nations. This has prompted concern from Russia, which has warned that Armenia's current course may create risks for its sovereignty.

Other Countries and Organisations

Other countries and organisations have also been involved in the conflict to varying degrees. Turkey is widely considered to be Azerbaijan's main supporter, providing diplomatic and military support. Iran has officially maintained a neutral position but has expressed support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Several other countries, such as Ukraine, Georgia, and Pakistan, have also offered explicit diplomatic support to Azerbaijan. On the other hand, Greece and Cyprus have adopted a pro-Armenian position in international forums.

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