Russia-Azerbaijan Relations: A Complex Dynamic In Eurasia

Azerbaijan's relationship with Russia is complex and multifaceted. While the two countries share a border and have a history of diplomatic and military ties, there have also been tensions and conflicts between them. In recent years, Azerbaijan has sought to balance its relations with Russia, the West, and its regional neighbours.

Historically, Azerbaijan was part of the Russian Empire and later the Soviet Union, gaining independence in 1991. Despite this shared history, relations between the two countries have not always been warm, with a particularly tense period in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Azerbaijan's victory in the 2020 Karabakh War resulted in the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces in the region, but tensions remained, with Azerbaijan accusing Russia of supplying weapons to separatist forces.

In the context of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Azerbaijan has become an essential partner for Russia in terms of energy exports and maintaining a transport corridor to Iran. Just two days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the two countries signed an alliance agreement, which included intelligence-sharing and hydrocarbon trade. This has allowed Azerbaijan to help Russia evade Western sanctions by shipping Russian oil and gas to Europe. However, Azerbaijan has also supported Ukraine's territorial integrity and sent humanitarian aid, demonstrating a delicate balancing act between the two powers.

In summary, while Azerbaijan and Russia maintain a de jure alliance and share certain interests, their relationship is complex and multi-layered, with a history of tensions and competing interests.

Azerbaijan's role in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)

Azerbaijan is a key player in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km multi-mode transportation network established in 2000 to promote trade cooperation between member states. The corridor connects the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea via Iran and then to St. Petersburg and Northern Europe via the Russian Federation.

Azerbaijan's role in the INSTC is significant. The country is actively involved in the project, currently building new train lines and roads to complete missing links in the corridor. The route through Azerbaijan allows for transport connectivity between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Kazakhstan.

The INSTC has the potential to be a game-changer for trade in the region, offering an alternative to the traditional Suez Canal route with reduced transit times and freight costs. However, the project has faced delays due to sanctions on Iran, one of the founding members, and other geopolitical issues.

The corridor through Azerbaijan is expected to increase trade connectivity between major cities such as Mumbai, Moscow, Tehran, Baku, and Bandar Abbas. It will also provide India with easier access to resource-rich Central Asian nations, bypassing Pakistan, and improve bilateral relations between member countries.

The INSTC is of strategic importance to India, providing an alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative and improving its access to Central Asian markets and resources. For Russia, the corridor offers an opportunity to reach new markets in the Global South via the Persian Gulf and escape the constraints of Western sanctions.

Overall, Azerbaijan's participation in the INSTC is crucial for the successful implementation of this ambitious transportation initiative, which has the potential to reshape trade patterns and enhance connectivity across Eurasia.

Azerbaijan's stance on the Ukraine-Russia conflict

Azerbaijan and Ukraine have enjoyed close relations since gaining independence from the Soviet Union. They established diplomatic ties in 1992 and have cooperated strategically, politically, economically, and culturally. Ukraine is one of Azerbaijan's main import partners, and Azerbaijan grants exclusive conditions for oil supply to Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine is a significant military partner of Azerbaijan, providing training for Azeri officers and supplying technical assistance. This military cooperation continued even before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, with Azerbaijan transferring three MiG-29 jets to Ukraine for repairs.

On the other hand, Azerbaijan and Russia have a complex relationship, with both countries being de facto and de jure allies in various aspects, including the military. Russia has been a long-time supplier of arms to Azerbaijan, and their economic cooperation is on the rise, with trade turnover increasing annually. However, there have been breakdowns in relations, such as Azerbaijan's criticism of Russia's weapons transfers to Armenia in 2008 and disagreements over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Despite these tensions, Azerbaijan has carefully navigated its relationship with Russia, especially in the context of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

With the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Azerbaijan has become an essential partner for Russia in terms of energy exports and maintaining a transport corridor to Iran. Russia relies on Azerbaijan's position on north-south transit routes to circumvent Western sanctions. Additionally, Russian exports of oil and gas through Azerbaijan have increased significantly after Russia's loss of access to the European market due to the invasion of Ukraine. This dynamic has made Azerbaijan a strategic partner for Russia, despite their differences.

Azerbaijan has provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine, with the first shipment reaching the country just three days after the Russian invasion in 2022. The volume of humanitarian aid from Azerbaijan to Ukraine has exceeded one thousand tons and 20 million US dollars as of June 2023. Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, has expressed support for Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty, stating that Azerbaijan understands occupation and violation of territorial integrity. However, Azerbaijan has also been accused of evading sanctions against Russia.

In conclusion, Azerbaijan's stance on the Ukraine-Russia conflict is nuanced. While it has provided humanitarian aid and expressed support for Ukraine, it also maintains a delicate relationship with Russia due to economic and strategic interests. Azerbaijan's position is influenced by its desire to manage its affairs without external interference and its rising clout in the region following the Ukraine war. The country's role in the conflict has been shaped by its complex historical relations with both Ukraine and Russia, as well as its strategic location and natural resources.

Azerbaijan's relations with Armenia

Azerbaijan and Armenia have had a tumultuous relationship since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The two countries have fought five wars in the past century, and there is no diplomatic relationship between the two.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War took place from 1988 to 1994, resulting in a de facto Armenian occupation of former Azerbaijani territories. A ceasefire was agreed upon in 1994, but this did not stop intermittent clashes and violations from both sides.

In 2016, clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan resulted in an estimated 350 troops and civilian deaths. Azerbaijan declared a unilateral ceasefire after launching strikes to regain control of territory occupied by Armenia-backed separatists.

In 2020, heavy fighting resumed along the line of contact between Armenian and Azeri troops, leading to both sides declaring martial law and mobilizing their forces. Despite calls for a ceasefire by the UN, the US, and Russia, the fighting continued, with both sides employing longer-range artillery and heavy weaponry. After several failed attempts, Russia successfully brokered a deal on November 9, 2020, ending the six-week Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Azerbaijan reclaimed most of the territory it had lost, and a Lachin corridor was established, monitored by Russian peacekeepers, to serve as a transit route connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh.

In 2022, Azerbaijan tightened its access to Nagorno-Karabakh, even blocking Red Cross convoys, which led to severe shortages and rationing in the region. This move, along with repeated efforts to restrict Armenia's access, eroded trust in Russia as a viable security guarantor.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched an "anti-terrorist" offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, claiming full control of the region within two days. This sparked negotiations mediated by Russia over the disarmament of Armenian separatists and the reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan.

Despite the ongoing conflict, there have been recent signs of progress towards normalization between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In 2023, the two countries made a joint statement without an intermediary for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, agreeing to exchange prisoners. This was welcomed by ordinary citizens on social media, who called for peace.

In October 2022, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met during the European Political Community summit in Prague and confirmed their commitment to upholding the United Nations Charter and recognizing each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty. This led to the deployment of an EU mission on the Armenian side of the border.

In June 2023, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Moscow and agreed to recognize each other's territorial integrity within Soviet-era administrative borders. This was followed by further discussions at the EPC summit in Brussels, focusing on transport infrastructure, border delimitation, security, and the rights of the ethnic Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh.

While there have been positive developments, the relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains strained due to ongoing border clashes, territorial disputes, and mutual distrust.

Azerbaijan's relations with Iran

Azerbaijan and Iran share a 765 km border and have historically been closely connected. The territory of what is now Azerbaijan was separated from Iran in the first half of the 19th century through the Russo-Persian Wars. The two countries have strong historical, cultural, and religious links. Both are majority Shia Muslim nations, with the highest and second-highest Shia population percentages in the world, respectively.

However, the two countries are not natural allies. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, relations between the two countries have generally been cold. Iran was one of the first countries to recognize Azerbaijan's independence in 1991, and diplomatic relations were established in 1992. However, Azerbaijan has become increasingly pro-Western-aligned, while Iran is largely pro-Russian and pro-Chinese due to its hostility towards the US. Azerbaijan has strong connections with Turkey, Israel, and the US, and is an ally of Israel and Turkey (both NATO members).

In recent years, there have been several incidents that have escalated tensions between the two countries. In 2006, an Iranian newspaper published a cartoon that sparked protests by Azerbaijanis in both Azerbaijan and Iran, as it allegedly compared Azerbaijanis to cockroaches. In 2007, Azerbaijan's minister of communications and information technology and the head of the Iranian State Broadcasting Agency signed a Memorandum of Understanding on bilateral media cooperation, with Azerbaijan urging Iran to cease broadcasting "anti-Azerbaijani propaganda" aimed at destabilizing the southern regions of the country. In 2012, Azerbaijan arrested 22 people on suspicion of plotting attacks on the US and Israeli embassies in Baku on behalf of neighboring Iran. In 2020, Iran was accused of supplying fuel to Armenian-held Nagorno-Karabakh, provoking a sharp reaction from Azerbaijan.

In January 2023, there was an attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, which further escalated tensions. Azerbaijan closed its embassy in Tehran and expelled four Iranian diplomats from the country. However, in March 2023, the Iranian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers met and declared that the two neighbors opened "a new chapter" in bilateral relations with many prospects for cooperation. In May 2023, a new bridge and checkpoint were opened on the Azerbaijan-Iran border to expand the transit capacity of this route.

Azerbaijan's relations with the West

Azerbaijan maintains diplomatic relations with many Western countries and is a member of several international organisations, including the United Nations, the Council of Europe, the World Health Organization, and the International Monetary Fund. The country has embassies in Washington, DC, and Los Angeles in the United States and is a member of NATO's Partnership for Peace. It also has diplomatic relations with several European countries, including France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Sweden. Additionally, Azerbaijan has an Eastern European Neighbourhood Policy with the European Union, with which it has an agreement on trade, economic, and political cooperation.

However, Azerbaijan's relations with the West have been strained at times, particularly due to its complex web of relationships with Russia and Iran. Despite its support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, Azerbaijan has simultaneously developed burgeoning financial and political engagements with Moscow. For example, Azerbaijan entered into a strategic partnership with Russia, including intelligence-sharing and hydrocarbon trade, which has allowed the country to bypass Western sanctions by shipping Russian oil and gas to Europe. Azerbaijan has also endorsed Russian mediation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan while rebuffing initiatives from the US and the EU.

In recent years, there has been a shift in Azerbaijan's geopolitical stance, with a tilt towards Moscow. This was evident in the signing of the "`alliance` agreement" between Azerbaijan and Russia just two days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Additionally, Azerbaijan's victory in the 2020 war in Karabakh resulted in the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces in the region, further complicating its relations with the West.

While Azerbaijan maintains its ties with the West, the country's leadership has demonstrated a willingness to "balance" its relations, particularly in the context of its good relations with both Russia and Ukraine. However, its recent actions, such as the September 2023 attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, have angered Western countries, including the US, France, and others. As a result, Azerbaijan's relations with the West may be facing new challenges and uncertainties.

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