Lexi Webster
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been high since Baku recaptured the Armenian-populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh in a 2020 military offensive. In 2023, a skirmish on the border left four Armenian troops dead, and the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, warned that Azerbaijan was planning a full-scale war against Armenia. This fear of invasion is exacerbated by Azerbaijan's demand that Armenia change its constitution, which currently calls for the unification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. While Azerbaijan has denied having any intention of invading Armenian sovereign territory, its actions, including joint military exercises with Turkey, have caused concern among the international community.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Date of invasion prediction | 2023, October |
| Possibility of invasion | High |
| Reason for invasion | To seize an extraterritorial corridor through Armenia's southernmost Syunik province, which has been branded as the so-called Zangezur corridor |
| Reason for high possibility | Azerbaijan's use of deadly force and coercive diplomacy against Armenia, at least since Baku's 2020 military successes in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh |
| Armenia's proposal to avoid invasion | Withdrawing troops from the border areas and establishing a demilitarized zone while the demarcation takes place |
| Countries supporting Armenia | The West, including the European Union and the United States |
| Countries supporting Azerbaijan | Russia and Turkey |
What You'll Learn
Azerbaijan's extraterritorial corridor demands
Azerbaijan's demand for an extraterritorial corridor, also known as the Zangezur corridor, has been a significant point of contention in the ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This corridor would cut through Armenia's southernmost Syunik province, providing a direct link between mainland Azerbaijan and the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan, which borders Turkey and Iran.
The demand for this corridor has heightened tensions between the two countries and raised concerns about a potential invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan. The corridor would require militarization to ensure its security, and Armenia fears that it would become a haven for illicit activities and trade. Furthermore, it would represent a shift in strategic geography in the Eurasian continent, potentially impacting the interests of Western powers.
The idea of the Zangezur corridor is not new. It was first mentioned in the 2020 trilateral Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement, brokered by Russia, which stipulated that Armenia would "guarantee the security of transport connections" to Nakhchivan. However, the interpretation of “unobstructed movement” has been a point of dispute, with Azerbaijan insisting on no checkpoints or customs controls, while Armenia argues that passport and customs controls are necessary.
The dispute over the Zangezur corridor has been further complicated by the involvement of other regional powers. Russia, Turkey, and Iran have all taken positions on the matter, with Russia and Turkey supporting Azerbaijan's demands, while the European Union and the United States support Armenia's proposal for broader regional connectivity within the framework of international law.
In August 2024, there were reports that Azerbaijan had dropped its demand for the extraterritorial corridor from normalization talks. However, the situation remains volatile, and the potential for a military escalation between Azerbaijan and Armenia persists.
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France's military aid to Armenia
France has agreed to provide military aid to Armenia in the form of military equipment to strengthen its defence against Azerbaijan. This decision comes after Azerbaijan's capture of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which caused more than 100,000 people to flee to Armenia. France's Foreign Minister, Catherine Colonna, announced that "France has given its agreement to the conclusion of future contracts with Armenia, which will allow the delivery of military equipment to Armenia so that it can ensure its defence." However, Colonna declined to provide specific details about the military aid, stating that there are already agreements in place between the two countries.
France's support for Armenia is significant due to its large Armenian diaspora and its traditional role in mediating the territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Additionally, France has provided 12.5 million euros in humanitarian aid to Armenia and has backed the idea of imposing EU sanctions on Baku.
The decision to send military aid to Armenia has been criticized by Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, who warned that France's actions could trigger a new conflict in the region. Aliyev pulled out of an EU-brokered meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and criticized France's position, stating that the provision of weapons to Armenia was intended to inflate a new conflict.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has expressed concerns about Azerbaijan's intentions, warning that Azerbaijan is planning a "full-scale war" against Armenia. Tensions between the two countries remain high, with Armenia accusing Azerbaijan of launching military operations with the aim of turning them into a large-scale war.
France's agreement to deliver military equipment to Armenia is aimed at ensuring the country's defence and maintaining stability in the region. However, the specifics of the military aid remain undisclosed, and the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan continues to be a source of tension and concern.
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The role of the West in peace talks
The West, including the European Union and the United States, has played a significant role in supporting peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In an effort to de-escalate tensions, Armenia proposed withdrawing troops from the border areas and establishing a demilitarized zone, which was supported by the West. Unarmed EU monitors currently patrol the Armenian side of the border at Yerevan's invitation, despite accusations of pro-Armenian bias from Azerbaijan.
The EU has taken on a prominent mediation role in the negotiations, with the United States also engaging in talks. Under EU mediation, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on a longer-term negotiation plan for a comprehensive peace agreement in May 2023, committing to the 1991 Almaty Declaration and their respective territorial integrity. This was seen by some experts as a potential breakthrough in the peace talks.
The United States, specifically the Biden administration, has been urged to intensify its support for the negotiations to achieve a breakthrough ahead of the COP29 summit in Baku, which could be an opportunity for Azerbaijan to enhance its global image. A successful resolution would also be a diplomatic win for the US President and an opportunity to strengthen ties with a challenging NATO ally, Türkiye.
The West's role in the peace talks is crucial, as the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has resulted in a significant humanitarian toll and has been ongoing for almost four decades. The latest escalation in February 2024 resulted in the deaths of four Armenian soldiers and heightened fears of an imminent Azerbaijani invasion.
While Armenia tends to prefer Western facilitation in the peace talks, Azerbaijan would rather see Russia and Turkey as mediators. Despite this disagreement, both sides agreed to a prisoner exchange in January 2024 without formal external mediation.
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The impact of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has had a significant impact on the region, with consequences for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The conflict has resulted in a large-scale humanitarian crisis, with thousands of people displaced and seeking refuge in neighbouring countries. The region has also suffered economically, with infrastructure damage and a disruption of trade and supply chains.
The conflict has also led to increased militarization in the region, with both sides investing heavily in their military capabilities and engaging in arms races. This has resulted in a buildup of weapons and an increased risk of further escalation and violence. The conflict has also caused a breakdown in diplomatic relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with little progress made in peace talks despite international mediation efforts.
The ongoing conflict has had a significant impact on the stability and security of the South Caucasus region, with fears that it could escalate further and lead to a wider regional conflict. The conflict has also had a profound impact on the people living in the region, with human rights abuses, ethnic tensions, and a sense of uncertainty and instability prevailing.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been a source of tension and instability in the region for decades, and despite efforts to reach a peaceful resolution, the conflict continues to simmer with occasional flare-ups of violence and tensions along the border.
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Turkey's involvement in the region
Turkey has no diplomatic relations with Armenia, and in 1993, it sealed its border with Armenia in a show of solidarity with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The tense relationship between Turkey and Armenia is further exacerbated by the mass killings and deportations of Armenians by Ottoman Turks a century ago, which scholars consider to be the first genocide of the 20th century, although Turkey denies this. In 2009, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan conditioned establishing formal ties with Armenia on its withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkey's military has been training Azerbaijani officers for decades, and in August, their armed forces conducted large-scale military exercises in Azerbaijan. Turkey is also Azerbaijan's third-largest supplier of military equipment, known to have sold drones and rocket launchers. Turkey may have sent military drone operators to aid Azerbaijan in the current conflict.
Turkey has repeatedly vowed to support Azerbaijan, both on the battlefield and the negotiating table, if needed. However, there is no evidence of Turkey's active involvement in the conflict so far, and Ankara has asserted that Azerbaijan has the capacity to fight without Turkish support. Turkey has denied sending Syrian mercenaries to aid Azerbaijan, contrary to reports by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Additionally, Turkey has dismissed as "propaganda" Armenia's claims that a Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down an Armenian SU-25 jet.
Turkey's involvement in the conflict is currently considered more rhetorical than substantial. Experts believe that Turkey's hardline rhetoric against Armenia is part of its aspirations for global and regional leadership and its increasing reliance on "gunboat diplomacy" to resolve disputes. Turkey has flexed its military muscle in Syria, Libya, and the eastern Mediterranean to pursue its interests.
With the conflict potentially drawing in Russia, experts predict that Azerbaijan will act with caution and limit any Turkish intervention. Turkey's support for Azerbaijan is seen as a way to boost its international clout, and its involvement is limited to providing humanitarian assistance and some military aid.
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Frequently asked questions
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been high since Baku recaptured the Armenian-populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2022. There have been reports of border skirmishes, with both sides accusing each other of opening fire. In October 2023, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken informed lawmakers that the State Department was monitoring the situation due to concerns about an Azerbaijani invasion of Armenia. However, a spokesperson later denied this report. The possibility of an invasion has also been denied by Azerbaijan, which claims it has no intention of threatening Armenian sovereign territory. Nevertheless, the Armenian government and international observers have expressed concerns about Azerbaijan's military actions and rhetoric.
The primary source of tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia is the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is ethnically Armenian but was recaptured by Azerbaijan in 2022. There are also disagreements over border delimitation and demarcation, with Azerbaijan demanding the return of enclaves controlled by Armenia since the First Karabakh War in the early 1990s. Additionally, Azerbaijan has insisted that Armenia change its constitution, which calls for the unification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. Armenia, on the other hand, has proposed demilitarizing the borders and withdrawing troops from border areas.
The international response to the possibility of an Azerbaijani invasion of Armenia has been mixed. The European Union (EU) and the United States have supported Armenia's territorial integrity and sovereignty, with the EU deploying unarmed civilian monitors to the Armenian side of the border. France has also agreed to provide military aid to Armenia, which has been criticized by Azerbaijan. On the other hand, Russia has maintained a military presence in the region and has been accused of tacitly endorsing Azerbaijan's attacks on Armenia's borders. Turkey has also provided extensive political, military, and operational support to Azerbaijan, including in its plans for the Zangezur corridor, a proposed extraterritorial corridor through Armenia.
