Trump's Afghan Conundrum: A War Of Attrition And Lost Opportunities

The war in Afghanistan was the longest war in American history, lasting 20 years and costing the lives of 2,216 American military personnel and tens of thousands of civilians. It also cost the American taxpayers an estimated $714 billion. Despite this, the U.S.-backed Afghan government controls less than 60% of its own country. After becoming President, Joe Biden was severely constrained by the decisions of his predecessor, Donald Trump, who had signed a deal with the Taliban to remove U.S. troops by May 1, 2021. Trump had also reduced U.S. troops in Afghanistan to 2,500, and his administration was unable to come up with a new strategy for the war.

Trump's exit deal with the Taliban

In February 2020, the Trump administration negotiated a deal with the Taliban that excluded the Afghan government. The deal was simple: the Taliban wouldn't kill Americans, and the US wouldn't attack the Taliban. In return, the US agreed to withdraw all US forces by May 1, 2021.

The deal also included the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners held by the Afghan government, which was not a party to the agreement. The Taliban also agreed to start peace talks with the Afghan government and consider a ceasefire.

The deal laid out an explicit timetable for the US and NATO to pull out their forces: in the first 100 days, they would reduce troops from 14,000 to 8,600 and leave five military bases. Over the next nine months, they would vacate the rest.

The Taliban's end of the deal was criticized for asking a lot from the group, without any enforcement mechanism. They were required to ensure that nowhere in the country harbored a terrorist cell and to be responsible for any individual who might want to attack the US from Afghanistan, including new immigrants.

The deal was perceived as a sweet one for the Taliban, and critics argued that it was a naked attempt by Trump to get out of Afghanistan. It was a campaign promise that would make him the president who finally ended America's longest war.

Biden ultimately chose to follow through with the deal, despite having the option to withdraw from the accord if Afghan peace talks failed. He delayed the complete pullout from May to September, and the Taliban took over the country in a matter of days.

The US's failure to curb Afghanistan's drugs trade

The US has spent billions of dollars on reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan since 2002, with a significant amount dedicated to counter-narcotics measures. Despite these efforts, the US has failed to curb Afghanistan's drugs trade, which remains a major source of income for the Taliban.

The rise of the Afghan drug trade

During the Cold War, the US intervened in Afghanistan, backing Muslim militants who were fighting to expel the Soviet Red Army. The CIA provided these guerrillas, known as the mujahideen, with an estimated $3 billion in arms. This funding, along with an expanding opium harvest, sustained the Afghan resistance for a decade until the Soviet withdrawal in 1989.

Throughout the 1980s, opium production in Afghanistan grew from about 100 tonnes annually to 2,000 tonnes. By 1984, Afghanistan supplied 60% of the US heroin market and 80% of the European market.

US counter-narcotics efforts

Since 2002, the US has spent over $8 billion on counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan, including poppy eradication, interdiction raids, alternative crop programs, and airstrikes on suspected heroin labs. Despite these efforts, Afghanistan remains the world's biggest illicit opiate supplier.

One reason for the failure of US counter-narcotics policies is that they often alienated local communities, driving economic refugees into the hands of the Taliban and generating political capital for the insurgents. Eradication efforts were frequently plagued by corruption, with powerful elites able to bribe or coerce their way out of having their opium poppy fields destroyed.

The Taliban's role in the drug trade

The Taliban has profited significantly from the Afghan drug trade, collecting taxes from farmers who grow opium poppies and from independent drug traders. The group has also provided protection to traffickers and owned or sponsored poppy fields.

The impact of the drug trade on Afghanistan

The drug trade has had a devastating impact on Afghanistan, contributing to insecurity, corruption, macroeconomic distortions, and substance abuse disorders. It has also fuelled the Taliban insurgency, providing a vital source of funding and simplifying procurement and logistics for the group.

The way forward

To effectively address the Afghan drug trade, there is a need for a comprehensive and well-sequenced counternarcotics strategy that takes into account the complex political, economic, and social dynamics of the country. This includes addressing the structural drivers of the drug trade, such as insecurity, political struggles, and a lack of economic alternatives.

Demand reduction measures, such as treatment and prevention, should also be prioritized and adequately funded. Efforts to improve Afghanistan's economy and develop legal economic opportunities must go hand in hand with security improvements and stable governance.

The US's failure to prevent the resurgence of the Taliban

• Lack of a clear strategy and goals: The US's strategy in Afghanistan was often criticised for lacking clear goals and being overly focused on military objectives rather than political and diplomatic solutions. This was reflected in the US's heavy investment in the Afghan military and security forces, which were unable to prevent the Taliban's resurgence.
• Inadequate understanding of Afghanistan's context: The US failed to tailor its programs and interventions to the specific cultural, social, and political dynamics of Afghanistan. For example, their efforts to promote women's empowerment were not aligned with the local context and led to limited success.
• Misallocation of resources: The US spent billions of dollars on reconstruction and development efforts in Afghanistan, but these efforts were often mismanaged and failed to address the root causes of instability. The US also prioritised counterterrorism over counter-corruption efforts, which allowed corruption to flourish and undermine the legitimacy of the Afghan government.
• Lack of coordination and coherence: The US's efforts in Afghanistan were characterised by a lack of coordination between different agencies and organisations, leading to duplication of efforts and a lack of coherence in their overall strategy.
• Short-term political considerations: US policy in Afghanistan was often driven by short-term political considerations, such as election cycles, rather than long-term strategic goals. This led to frequent changes in strategy and a lack of consistency in their approach.
• Inadequate oversight and accountability: There was a lack of oversight and accountability for US spending in Afghanistan, with billions of dollars wasted or stolen due to fraud and corruption. This undermined the effectiveness of US programs and contributed to the resurgence of the Taliban.
• Failure to address corruption: The US failed to adequately address corruption within the Afghan government and security forces, which undermined their legitimacy and effectiveness in combating the Taliban.
• Withdrawal of US troops: The decision by President Biden to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan created a power vacuum that the Taliban was able to exploit, leading to their rapid resurgence and the collapse of the Afghan government.

The US's failure to rebuild Afghanistan

The US has spent over two decades and hundreds of billions of dollars trying to rebuild Afghanistan. However, the US's efforts have been largely unsuccessful, with the country's infrastructure projects being unsustainable and the Taliban retaking control of the country.

The US has struggled to develop a coherent strategy for rebuilding Afghanistan. The US government has continuously underestimated the amount of time and resources required to rebuild the country, creating unrealistic timelines and expectations. This has increased corruption and reduced the effectiveness of programs.

The US has also failed to tailor its efforts to the Afghan context, imposing Western technocratic models, advanced weapon systems, and formal rule of law on a country with an ancient, tribal society. This included building schools that were not wanted by locals, who preferred their children to herd goats, and a police headquarters with a glass facade and an atrium that the police chief couldn't open.

The US has also struggled with staffing its reconstruction projects, with unqualified workers and construction efforts that were often abandoned before completion. The constant rotation of staff has also led to a lack of continuity.

The US's nation-building efforts in Afghanistan have been further undermined by the endemic corruption of the Afghan government, which was fuelled by the vast amount of American money flowing into the country.

Overall, the US's failure to develop and implement a coherent strategy for rebuilding Afghanistan, its underestimation of the time and resources required, and its failure to tailor its efforts to the Afghan context have contributed to its unsuccessful attempt to rebuild the country.

The US's failure to prevent civilian harm

Strategic Decisions and Flawed Tactics

The US military's strategy in Afghanistan often prioritized short-term gains over long-term stability, which contributed to the failure to protect civilians. One example is the "Kill-or-Capture" policy, which targeted Taliban and al-Qaeda leaders. While this approach may have seemed appealing in theory, it resulted in the scattering of terrorist networks and the rise of new leaders, prolonging the conflict and putting civilians at risk.

Another strategic failure was the US military's reliance on air strikes and drone attacks, which often led to civilian casualties. Between 2006 and 2013, at least 14,000 Afghan civilians were killed, and the numbers have continued to rise. These strikes were often based on faulty intelligence or misinformation provided by Afghan leaders, resulting in tragic mistakes.

Lack of Understanding of Local Context

The US military's failure to understand the cultural and social dynamics of Afghanistan also contributed to civilian harm. They partnered with local warlords and militia commanders with records of human rights abuses, which fueled resentment and undermined efforts to foster good governance. Additionally, their attempts to impose Western-style institutions and governance models were often ill-suited to the Afghan context and led to further instability.

Inadequate Training and Support for Afghan Security Forces

The US-led training and support for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) were inadequate and failed to create a sustainable security apparatus. The ANSF was designed to be dependent on foreign contractors and enablers, and when those contractors left, the ANSF quickly collapsed. This highlights a critical failure to build a self-sustaining security sector.

Failure to Address Corruption and Human Rights Abuses

Widespread corruption and human rights abuses by both US-backed Afghan forces and the Taliban contributed to civilian harm. Abuses by US-backed warlords and security officials fueled resentment and provided fertile ground for Taliban recruitment. The US military often turned a blind eye to these abuses or failed to hold their partners accountable, undermining their credibility and legitimacy.

Impact on Civilians

The consequences of these failures have been devastating for Afghan civilians. They have endured decades of violence, displacement, and a constant fear of harm. The psychological impact of living in a war zone, with constant raids and special operations, cannot be overstated.

Frequently asked questions