Un Peacekeepers In Afghanistan: A Complex History And Future Outlook

The United Nations (UN) has been present in Afghanistan since 1949. In March 2002, the UN Security Council established the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). UNAMA's mandate, which extended until 17 September 2021, stressed the importance of a comprehensive and inclusive Afghan-led and Afghan-owned political process to achieve sustainable peace.

The Taliban's increasing dominance in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of US military forces have led to calls for the UN to deploy a peacekeeping operation in the country. However, no official discussions about a potential peacekeeping operation have taken place. While some analysts and civilians have proposed different types of missions, they face serious challenges and risks. The Taliban's consent and cooperation are crucial, but even with their support, the presence of other hostile groups in Afghanistan poses significant dangers.

Proponents of a UN peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan argue that it could help avert a civil war, facilitate evacuations, and provide humanitarian relief. They highlight the success of peacekeeping operations in other countries and the potential for impartial peacekeepers to de-escalate tensions and monitor the Taliban's commitments. On the other hand, critics point out the political and operational complexities, the risks to peacekeepers, and the possibility of legitimizing an authoritarian regime.

As of now, there is no clear consensus or official plan for a UN peacekeeping operation in Afghanistan.

The Taliban's desire for international legitimacy and aid

The Taliban's desire for international recognition is the Security Council's only leverage to press for inclusive government and respect for rights, particularly for women, in Afghanistan. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said that it is very important for the international community to be united and use the only leverage that exists, which is the interests of the Taliban for legitimacy and recognition.

The Taliban's desire for recognition is driven by pressing economic needs and the desire to see funds unfrozen and various forms of assistance delivered. They have a record of seeking international credibility, and their leaders have a history of placing a high priority on the removal of sanctions against them. They have also made clear their desire for foreign aid to rebuild their country after two decades of grinding war.

The recognition of the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan is a highly contested issue. No country has yet recognized the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan, or explicitly announced that they intend to do so. Several countries have maintained some contact with the group, often clarifying that such communications do not imply recognition of governmental status.

The possible existence of a constitutionally legitimate alternative government may present a greater barrier to the acceptance of the Taliban's governmental status. If a constitutional claim to power exists, states may follow contemporary practice and endorse the constitutionally valid claim. This suggests that only that entity may be lawfully treated as the government of Afghanistan.

In the absence of a constitutional claim to power, states will be faced with deciding whether or not to recognize a Taliban government. Their reactions to the Taliban government, and in particular, if they refuse to recognize the Taliban on the basis of their human rights record, might indicate that international law is moving towards rendering relevant certain other forms of "legitimacy" to the enjoyment of governmental status.

The potential for a civil war in Afghanistan

Afghanistan has been at war for several generations, and the country's future remains uncertain. The Taliban's swift rise to power was partly due to the war-weariness of rural communities, but their hold over the country is tenuous. The Taliban does not represent a majority of Afghans and is struggling to govern, facing challenges from within its ranks and from other armed groups. The National Resistance Front, for example, has vowed to continue its resistance and has sought military support from the United States and other international actors.

Afghanistan has a large population of people under the age of 25, low economic development, rough mountainous terrain, climactic pressures, territorialized ethnic fractionalization, and a recent history of civil war. These are all structural conditions that increase the likelihood of civil war. Additionally, the economy of Afghanistan is near collapse, and rebel groups are actively seeking third-party military support, both of which are predictors of civil war.

The consequences of a civil war in Afghanistan would be devastating for human and regional security. Civilians suffer from armed conflict, and displacement camps are breeding grounds for extremist and child soldier recruitment. Refugee flows could also destabilize neighbouring countries, including those in Europe.

To prevent civil war, the international community should support a durable peace in Afghanistan through a peace agreement and an international preventive peacekeeping mission. A peacekeeping mission could help prevent civil war by shining a spotlight on actions that violate peace and security and by mediating to de-escalate tensions in the region. A large, multinational observer mission could be organized by the U.N.'s Department of Peace Operations, with troops from dozens of countries patrolling in mixed-nation units to remain impartial.

However, there are challenges to implementing a peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan. The Taliban has a longstanding desire to remove all foreign forces from the country, and even if they were to consent to a peacekeeping mission, there would still be the threat of fighters from al-Qaida, the Islamic State-Khorasan, and other hostile groups. Additionally, Afghanistan's political context is not well-suited to U.N. peacekeepers, as there is no viable peace process to help implement and no recognized host government to support.

Despite these challenges, history has shown that peacekeeping missions are effective at preventing conflict, protecting civilians, and maintaining peace and security. Afghanistan's complex situation calls for creative solutions, and a U.N. peacekeeping mission could be a crucial step towards averting civil war and establishing a lasting peace in the country.

The role of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA)

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) was established in March 2002 by the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1401. It is a UN Special Political Mission tasked with assisting the Government and people of Afghanistan in laying the foundations for sustainable peace and development in the country.

UNAMA's mandate, which is reviewed annually, has been altered over time to reflect the needs of the country. The mandate extends until 17 March 2025, expressing the UN's long-term commitment to support the people of Afghanistan. The mission has around 1,164 staff, with headquarters in Kabul, and maintains a field presence across Afghanistan, as well as liaison offices in Pakistan and Iran.

UNAMA is headed by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Afghanistan, who is responsible for all UN activities in the country. Two deputy Special Representatives oversee the main pillars of the mission – political and developmental issues. The Deputy SRSG (political) has specific responsibility for political affairs, including political outreach, conflict resolution, and regional cooperation. The Deputy SRSG (humanitarian) is expected to manage UN support for development efforts in Afghanistan, including capacity building and coordination of humanitarian assistance from international bodies.

UNAMA promotes the human rights of all Afghans and has expressed deep concern over detentions of Afghan women and girls. It has also reminded the de facto authorities of their human rights obligations. In addition, UNAMA has called for an immediate end to fighting in urban areas as civilians bear the brunt of the violence. The mission is committed to assisting Afghans in achieving sustainable peace and development.

The challenges of peacekeeping in Afghanistan

Political and operational prerequisites

Deploying a UN peacekeeping operation in Afghanistan requires consultations among the relevant actors in the UN system, the relevant parties in Afghanistan, and regional organizations. The UN secretary-general would then request a strategic assessment to clarify the options for UN engagement, followed by a technical field assessment to assess the security situation and sketch out the options, modalities, and financial dimensions for a potential UN operation. The Security Council must then formally authorize the mission in a resolution, outlining its mandate, size, and configuration. The secretariat must also appoint senior personnel to lead the mission and orchestrate the complicated force generation process to find and prepare the right type and number of peacekeepers. These steps require time and a large degree of political consensus, which have not yet been met or discussed by the relevant parties.

Taliban consent and cooperation

The Taliban's consent and active cooperation are essential for the success of a UN peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan. While the Taliban has indicated a willingness to explore multilateral solutions in the past, their longstanding desire to remove all foreign forces from Afghanistan persists. Even with their consent, significant risks remain in the form of fighters from al-Qaida, the Islamic State-Khorasan, and other hostile groups. Without the Taliban's support and active cooperation, Afghanistan is not a suitable environment for UN peacekeepers.

Political context

Afghanistan's political context poses another challenge for UN peacekeeping efforts. UN peacekeeping works best when there is a viable peace process to implement and a host government to support. However, Afghanistan currently resembles a bloody and messy ending to a civil war, with one dominant side (the Taliban) imposing its order on the country. There is no peace deal to implement, no clear peace process to support, and no ceasefire in place. Additionally, the de facto Taliban-led government lacks international recognition.

Risk of peacekeeper casualties and hostages

UN peacekeepers in Afghanistan would face a high risk of casualties and hostage situations. Lightly armed UN observers would be vulnerable to attack by armed groups, and even large and robust peacekeeping missions have had their personnel taken hostage in the past. Experts warn that peacekeepers operating in small formations would be confined to cities and their bases, limiting their ability to conduct patrols and monitor the situation effectively.

Troop-contributing countries

Securing troop-contributing countries for a UN peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan has been challenging. Suggested countries include South American states (Brazil and Colombia), African states (Senegal and Egypt), Indonesia, Bangladesh, and China. However, none of these countries have offered to participate, and China, with its 8,000-strong peacekeeping standby force, has focused more on the need to keep peacekeepers safe rather than on civilian protection.

Alternative approaches

Instead of a large, robust peacekeeping force, the UN's longstanding Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) can play a crucial role in effectively operating in Afghanistan's difficult circumstances. UNAMA was established in March 2002 by the UN Security Council and has a mandate extending until September 17, 2021, stressing the importance of a comprehensive and inclusive Afghan-led and Afghan-owned political process for achieving sustainable peace.

The potential benefits of peacekeeping in Afghanistan

Afghanistan has been at war for several generations, and it is likely that the next generation will not see peace unless UN member states unite to prevent an intra-Afghan war. A UN peacekeeping mission could help avert civil war and bring a durable peace to Afghanistan.

Stability and conflict prevention

Firstly, a peacekeeping mission could help to stabilise the country and prevent further conflict. Afghanistan has been ravaged by decades of war and instability, and a peacekeeping presence could provide a much-needed buffer between warring factions and help to enforce a fragile peace.

Humanitarian aid and protection

Secondly, peacekeepers could facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to those in need and protect vulnerable civilians, including women and minorities, from human rights abuses and violent reprisals.

Countering terrorism

Thirdly, a peacekeeping mission could help to counter the presence and influence of international terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan, such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State-Khorasan.

Support for the Taliban

Fourthly, a peacekeeping mission could provide support and assistance to the Taliban-led government in governing the country effectively and making credible commitments to Afghanistan's minority populations.

Regional stability

Finally, preventing civil war and maintaining stability in Afghanistan has regional implications. Refugee flows, for example, could threaten to destabilise neighbouring countries, including those in Europe. Therefore, a peacekeeping mission could have a stabilising effect on the region as a whole.

In conclusion, a UN peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan has the potential to bring numerous benefits, including increased stability, humanitarian aid, counter-terrorism efforts, and regional stability. However, it is important to recognise that such a mission would also face significant challenges and risks, as outlined by Paul D. Williams in "The Pitfalls of UN Peacekeeping in Afghanistan".

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