Belarus-Ukraine Conflict: Why Belarus Didn't Invade

While Belarus has supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, it has not invaded Ukraine itself.section>

section>Belarus allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Belarusian opposition and Ukrainian military sources also reported that Belarusian troops were in Ukraine fighting alongside Russians. However, Belarus's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, denied these claims and asserted that the Belarusian Armed Forces would not participate directly in the conflict. Lukashenko also stated that he would not send soldiers into Ukraine unless attacked first.

There are several possible reasons why Belarus chose not to invade Ukraine directly:

- Public opposition: According to surveys,section> Belarusian society is overwhelmingly against the country's participation in the war, with more than 90% rejecting the idea of joining on Russia's side. Sending Belarusian soldiers to fight in Ukraine could provoke a serious wave of discontent and potentially threaten the stability of the Lukashenko regime.

- Military capabilities: The Belarusian army is relatively small, with the most combat-ready segment not exceeding 15,000 troops. It lacks the capacity to significantly alter the outcome of the war in Russia's favour.

- Strategic considerations: Invading Ukraine from western Belarus would extend Russian supply lines and bring Russian forces closer to Poland, a NATO member country. This could trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, posing a significant risk to both Russia and Belarus.

- Geopolitical implications: Belarus's direct participation in the war could further destabilise the region and provoke another uprising against Lukashenko. It could also lead to stronger pushback from the European Union and NATO, which have already imposed sanctions on Belarus for its involvement in the conflict.

Belarus's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has stated he will not send troops to Ukraine unless attacked first

Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko has stated that he will not send troops to Ukraine unless attacked first. Lukashenko's stance has been interpreted as a sign of resistance to pressure from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is believed to be running out of conventional options in the Ukraine conflict. Lukashenko's decision to keep Belarussian troops in Belarus may be due to the understanding that Belarussian society is largely against the country's participation in the war, with over 90% rejecting the idea of joining Russia in the conflict. Sending Belarussian soldiers to fight in Ukraine could provoke a serious wave of discontent within the country and potentially lead to an uprising against Lukashenko's regime.

Lukashenko's decision to not actively engage Belarussian troops in the conflict, however, does not mean that Belarus has not been involved in the war. Belarus has supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine by allowing Russian forces to perform military drills on its territory and providing access to military airbases and army installations for attacks on Ukraine. Additionally, there have been reports of Belarussian troops in Ukraine fighting alongside Russian forces, although Lukashenko has dismissed these claims.

The relationship between Belarus and Russia is complex, with Belarus being a close ally and neighbour of Russia. Belarus has benefited economically from its relationship with Russia, especially in the face of Western sanctions. At the same time, Lukashenko's dependence on Russia has led to concerns about the loss of military sovereignty and the potential for Russian interference in Belarussian decision-making.

Lukashenko's statement that he will not send troops to Ukraine unless attacked first indicates a cautious approach to the conflict, likely influenced by domestic and international pressures. However, as the war progresses, the situation may change, and the potential for Belarussian troops to join the conflict cannot be ruled out.

Belarus's involvement in the war is unpopular among its citizens, with over 90% against joining Russia

The prospect of sending Belarusian troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine is deeply unpopular in Belarus and could threaten President Alexander Lukashenko's hold on power. According to surveys conducted by the Belarusian Analytical Workshop (BAM) and Chatham House, a majority of Belarusians are against their country's troops joining the war effort, with only a small percentage expressing support. This opposition to the war may be even higher than reported, as independent sociological polls are banned in Belarus, and these surveys had to rely on telephone and internet interviews.

Belarusians have a strong anti-war mentality, influenced by the traumatic collective memory of World War II, which cost the country a significant share of its population. This anti-war sentiment is evident in the protests against the invasion, acts of sabotage targeting Russian military infrastructure, and the participation of Belarusian volunteers fighting alongside Ukraine.

Lukashenko's decision to support Russia in the invasion while avoiding direct involvement in the fighting reflects his dependence on the Kremlin. Following mass protests in 2020-2021, Lukashenko's regime became isolated internationally, making it reliant on Russian political and economic support. However, further involvement in the war could erode his grip on power as it goes against the wishes of the Belarusian people, who do not want their soldiers to fight and do not support decisions imposed on them from abroad.

There is a risk of a serious wave of discontent and an uprising against Lukashenko if Belarus enters the war

The Belarusian army does not have the capacity to turn the tide of the war in Russia's favour. Firstly, it is too small, with the most combat-ready segment not exceeding 15,000 troops. The remainder are about as efficient as Russia's ragtag bunch of new conscripts. Moreover, the Ukrainian armed forces are now much better prepared for an attack from the north: they have mined the roads and fields on the border with Belarus, destroyed the relevant bridges, and modern Western weapons such as HIMARS anti-tank missiles could prevent troops from even crossing the border.

The involvement of Belarus in the war has been unpopular among the general population. Protests were held on 27 February 2022, the day of the constitutional referendum which asked to revoke Belarus's non-nuclear country status, but were quickly dispersed.

It is believed that a deployment of Belarusian soldiers in a full-fledged war would represent a radical break with Lukashenko's cornerstone ideology of peace and stability and would raise the question of Lukashenko's support from a critical part of Belarusian society that has thus far been hesitant to openly oppose the regime.

According to Rosemary Thomas OBE, former British Ambassador in Minsk between 2009 and 2012, "Ordinary Belarusians see Ukraine as a brother nation. They don't want war at all but especially not with Ukraine." Julie D. Fisher, U.S. Special Envoy for Belarus, Ambassador since 2020, has also stated that it is obvious that "Belarusians do not want their soldiers to fight, Russian troops to invade Ukraine from Belarus, Russian soldiers to stay in Belarus. The Belarusian people do not want decisions to be made for them from abroad."

Belarus's military is too small to turn the tide of the war, with no more than 15,000 combat-ready troops

Belarus's military is small, with a force of around 48,000 to 49,000 troops, and nearly 350,000 reserves. The majority of soldiers are conscripts, serving for a period of 18 months, although there is an alternative service option. The Belarusian military still holds many Soviet military laws and maintains high numbers of reserve personnel as a high priority.

Belarus's military consists of Ground Forces and the Air Force and Air Defence Forces, all under the command of the Ministry of Defence. As a landlocked country, Belarus has no navy, but the Belarusian military does have control over some small Soviet-inherited naval vessels in its rivers and lakes.

In 2020, Belarus's military size was 158,000, a 1.94% increase from 2019. This number includes active-duty military personnel and paramilitary forces.

While Belarus has allowed Russia to invade Ukraine from its territory, and has supported Russia in other ways, its own military forces have not directly participated in the conflict. Belarus's leader, Aleksander Lukashenko, has stated that there would be "no way" he would send soldiers into Ukraine unless attacked first.

The small size of Belarus's military, with no more than 15,000 combat-ready troops, means that it would be unlikely to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine has mined the roads and fields on the border with Belarus and destroyed relevant bridges

Ukraine has heavily fortified and mined areas along its border with Belarus, making any attack extremely difficult. The border region is a heavily forested area full of forbidding wetlands, as well as the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been preparing for any potential Russian offensive, and the entire border has been mined. They have also built trenches and settlements along the wetlands of the northern border, with numerous defensive lines in case of an enemy advance from Belarus.

The Ukrainian government has stated that any violation of its border by the regime in Minsk will be met with a response of self-defence, as guaranteed by the UN Charter. All troop concentrations, military facilities, and supply routes in Belarus will become legitimate targets for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The build-up of troops and weapons from Belarus has caused concern in Ukraine, with the country's foreign ministry noting the proximity of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant as an additional hazard. The amassing of troops, which included mercenaries from the Wagner Group, was said to be taking place "under the guise of exercises".

Belarus has allowed Russia to use its territory as a staging post for attacks on Kyiv and has also permitted the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons, adding to speculation about its future role in the war. However, defence analyst Konrad Muzyka suggested that it was unlikely Belarus was considering any offensive action against Ukraine "at this stage", as its armed forces would require a significant increase in manpower through mobilisation.

The presence of Belarusian troops on Ukrainian soil has been a source of tension between the two countries, with Ukraine closing border checkpoints leading into Belarus except in special cases. While Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has avoided direct involvement in the conflict, he has allowed Russia to use its territory and provided other support, such as allowing Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory to shoot at Ukrainian targets.

The use of landmines by both Russia and Ukraine has been widely condemned by human rights organisations and international treaties. The extensive use of mines and other explosive devices has resulted in numerous civilian casualties, including children, and has hindered agricultural work and export efforts, aggravating the economic crisis in Ukraine.

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