Poland's Invasion Of Belarus: Is It Happening?

Tensions have been rising between Poland and Belarus, with both countries deploying troops to their shared border. Poland is a NATO and European Union member, while Belarus is an ally of Russia in its war with Ukraine. In 2021, Belarus pushed thousands of migrants from the Middle East and Africa across its border with Poland, causing Poland to build a wall to reduce the inflow. Poland has also been supporting Ukraine with military equipment, political backing, and humanitarian aid, including hosting more than 1.2 million refugees. Belarus has responded by forming the Patriotic Force Command, which has accused Polish politicians of igniting the fire of war. Russia has also moved some of its short-range nuclear weapons into Belarus and thousands of Russian Wagner mercenaries are now stationed in the country. Poland has responded by relocating military units closer to the border and beginning work on a defensive line, known as the East Shield, as part of NATO's eastern flank defence infrastructure plan.

Poland's support for Belarus's opposition

Poland has been supporting the Belarusian opposition since the 2020 presidential elections, in which pro-Russian leader Alexander Lukashenko won a sixth term in a vote that Poland and the wider Western community saw as rigged. Poland has been pushing the EU to take action against the authoritarian government in Belarus, and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has called for a new and fair election and the release of all political prisoners. Poland has also offered financial support to Belarus, pledging 11.3 million euros in support of civil society in the country.

Poland's support for the Belarusian opposition is not just about geopolitics. The two countries share a long border and centuries of shared history, including several writers who wrote in both Polish and Belarusian. There is also a substantial Polish minority in Belarus and a Belarusian community in Poland, which has been growing due to increasing numbers of Belarusians seeking work.

Poland has a long history of supporting democratic movements and victims of repression in Belarus. In the mid-2000s, Poland initiated a university admission program for expelled Belarusian students and founded the Belarusian-language TV channel Belsat TV. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski was also one of the masterminds of the EU’s Eastern Partnership policy, which included Belarus. However, Poland's credibility with the Belarusian opposition has been tarnished in recent years due to its own problems with the rule of law and democratic values.

Despite this, Poland remains a vocal proponent of decisive measures against the Belarusian authorities and has offered practical support to the opposition, including treating injured activists in Polish hospitals and offering exile to opposition leaders.

Belarus's migrant crisis

The Belarus migrant crisis refers to a series of events that began around July 2021, when Belarus's president, Alexander Lukashenko, threatened to "flood" the EU with "drugs and migrants". This threat was followed by a coordinated influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, to the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia, with the apparent encouragement of the Belarusian government. The crisis was seen as a form of hybrid warfare in response to deteriorating Belarus-EU relations following the disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which was widely considered rigged by Western democracies and independent observers.

The crisis resulted in tens of thousands of unauthorized border crossing attempts, with migrants receiving instructions, tools, and false advertising from Belarusian authorities and state-controlled entities to facilitate their journey into the EU. The EU responded by sending supporting officers and patrol cars to Lithuania and expressing support for physical barriers along the border. Poland and Lithuania, facing criticism for their handling of the crisis, constructed border walls and increased border security.

Human rights organizations raised concerns over the treatment of migrants, including pushbacks, denial of asylum claims, and inadequate food, water, and shelter. The crisis also led to increased tensions between Belarus and its neighbouring countries, with Poland deploying thousands of troops to its border with Belarus and expressing concerns about Belarusian military drills and the presence of Russian mercenaries.

The crisis has continued to escalate, with reports of violence and border clashes. The EU has accused Belarus of instrumentalising irregular migration as part of hybrid actions, threatening further sanctions. Belarus, in turn, has withdrawn from agreements and made counter-accusations, leveraging its role in migration flows to pressure the EU.

The Belarus migrant crisis highlights the complexities of EU migration policy and the potential for exploitation of migrants by bordering nations. It has also brought attention to the fragile geopolitical dynamics between Belarus, the EU, and Russia, with Poland finding itself at the centre of these tensions.

Poland's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Poland has been a key supporter of Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It has provided military equipment, political backing, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and has hosted more than 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees. Poland has also participated in international economic sanctions on Russia and Belarus.

Poland's foreign minister, Radek Sikorski, has called on NATO to increase its defence preparedness and has sought to position Poland as a reliable international partner and a leader in Europe. Sikorski has emphasised that Poland is a “frontline country” in the conflict and must maintain its minimum national defence needs. He has also stated that Poland and other nations bordering Ukraine are “obliged” to shoot down Russian missiles before they enter their airspace.

Poland's support for Ukraine has not been without controversy, however. There have been disputes between the two countries, such as the Volhynia Genocide dispute, and Poland has refused to give away any more of its military equipment for free. Poland's ruling liberal-globalist coalition has also been accused of exploiting the conflict to improve their chances in the upcoming presidential election.

In summary, Poland has played an active and supportive role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, providing military, political, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, while also seeking to strengthen its own defences and position within Europe.

Poland's military defence

Tensions have been building up between Poland and Belarus, with Poland deploying thousands of troops to its border with Belarus. However, the idea that Belarus might invade Poland seems unlikely. Poland has the largest and most powerful military in mainland Europe and is a member of NATO. Belarus is allied with Russia, which is already engaged in a military conflict with Ukraine. A conflict with Poland would risk escalating the situation into a world war.

Poland's military budget is substantial, ranking 14th in the world in 2023, with expenditures of $31.6 billion. The country plans to continue investing heavily in its military, with a goal to double the size of its armed forces to 300,000 personnel and increase defence spending to at least 3% of GDP in 2023. Poland's military modernisation program includes acquiring new armoured vehicles, anti-aircraft missile systems, ballistic missile defence systems, submarines, and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Poland's military has a long history, dating back to the early 19th century. The country's forces were significantly impacted by World War II, with the initial defeat and invasion by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union leading to the dispersion of Polish forces. After the war, Poland's military underwent several reorganisations and modernisations, joining NATO in 1999. Poland has since participated in various international conflicts and peacekeeping missions, including the Iraq War and ISAF mission in Afghanistan.

Poland's military strategy focuses on ensuring the country's independence, sovereignty, and border integrity. They aim to create favourable and secure conditions by eliminating external and internal threats, reducing risks, and rightly assessing challenges. Poland also prioritises cooperation with neighbouring countries and its allies in NATO and the European Union. By 2032, Poland aims to have one of the most modern and numerous militaries in Europe, with a continued emphasis on integration and joint operations between its various service branches.

Poland's border wall

Poland has begun construction of a border wall along its frontier with Belarus. The wall will stretch for 186km (115 miles), nearly half the length of the border shared by the two countries, and will reach a height of up to 5.5 metres (18ft). The Polish government has stated that the purpose of the wall is to prevent asylum seekers from entering the country. Poland has accused Belarus's president, Alexander Lukashenko, of deliberately provoking a refugee crisis in Europe by organising the movement of people from the Middle East to Minsk and promising them safe passage to the EU. This is believed to be in retaliation for sanctions imposed on his regime by Brussels.

The construction of the wall has raised concerns among human rights organisations and conservation groups. The wall will cut through the Białowieża Forest, a UNESCO World Heritage Site and home to the largest population of European bison. It will block migration routes for many animal species, including wolves, lynx, red deer, brown bears, and European bison. The wall will also impact the local communities in the historic border region, with hotels and inns going out of business due to restricted access.

The cost of the wall is estimated at €353 million (£293 million), approximately 10 times the budget of Poland's migration department. The wall will be equipped with motion detectors and thermal cameras and is expected to be completed within a few months. Despite the concerns and potential environmental impact, the Polish government has defended the construction, stating that the damage will be minimised and that tree felling will be limited to the area required for the wall.

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