Belarus' Civil War: Will It Happen?

The prospect of civil war in Belarus is a very real concern, with the country already embroiled in a number of international disputes and exhibiting signs of internal instability. Belarus has been a close ally of Russia, supporting its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine by allowing Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory and providing access to military airbases. However, there is evidence of deep divisions within Belarusian society, with protests against the invasion and the government taking place, as well as opposition to the involvement of Belarusian troops in the conflict. The country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has faced criticism and condemnation from Western countries for his role in the Ukraine conflict and his suppression of opposition. With growing pressure from both external and internal forces, the potential for civil unrest or even civil war in Belarus is a significant risk.

The role of Russia in a potential Belarusian civil war

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia and has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the initial stages of the conflict, Belarus lent its territory to Russian soldiers to attack Ukraine, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Kyiv. Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has severely deteriorated Ukraine-Belarus relations in economic, political, and security domains. Ukraine has divested from strategically important Belarusian imports, particularly petroleum products, and bilateral trade has plummeted. Ukrainian and Belarusian ambassadors have been recalled, and diplomatic relations have been severely curtailed.

Belarus's role in the conflict has evolved, and it has transitioned into a crucial supplier of military hardware, munitions, and military components to Russia. The country has also become a participant in Russia's psychological and informational operations that precede any new phase in the war. For instance, leaked documents revealed Russian efforts in the first half of 2023 to create the impression of a potential second offensive originating from Belarus.

In August 2024, Belarus announced the transfer of an Iskander missile, Polonez MLRS, and special forces to areas bordering Ukraine, citing Ukrainian attack drones shot down over its airspace. This was interpreted as an attempt to help Russia and distract the Ukrainian command. Belarus has also deployed around a third of its army, including air defence, aircraft, and weapons storage, to the border with Ukraine.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been condemned in Western countries, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. According to sources, Belarus's participation in the military conflict is unpopular among the general population, and protests have been held.

While there have been speculations about Belarus hosting Russian nuclear weaponry, in March 2023, Putin announced that Russia would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus under a nuclear-sharing agreement. This decision has been criticised by the Belarusian opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who referred to it as a "step towards internal destabilisation".

In summary, Belarus has played a significant role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict by providing territory, military hardware, and psychological operations support to Russia. Its involvement has had consequences for its relations with Ukraine and has led to sanctions from Western countries. The presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus further complicates the situation and raises concerns about internal destabilisation.

The impact of the 2020 Belarusian presidential election

The 2020 Belarusian presidential election, held on 9 August, had a significant impact on the country and its people. The election saw the incumbent, Alexander Lukashenko, declared the winner by the Central Election Commission (CEC), securing a sixth term in office with just over 80% of the vote. This outcome, however, was disputed by opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who claimed victory with at least 60% of the vote and demanded a transfer of power.

The election was marred by allegations of widespread electoral fraud, with opposition candidates filing appeals to invalidate the results. The European Union and several countries refused to accept the election outcome, imposing sanctions on Belarusian officials for "violence, repression, and election fraud". The aftermath of the election witnessed widespread protests, with demonstrators facing violent repression from security forces.

The impact of the election extended beyond politics. Tsikhanouskaya, facing threats of arrest and the potential loss of her children, was forced to seek exile in Lithuania. The election also triggered a wave of mass demonstrations, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets to protest against the regime. This resulted in a brutal crackdown, with over 35,000 people arrested, thousands beaten in custody, and hundreds of independent media outlets and NGOs shut down.

The election also had international repercussions. The United States, in coordination with its allies, imposed sanctions and export controls on key industries in Belarus. Additionally, the election strained Belarus's relationship with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), as the country refused to invite observers to monitor the election, marking a departure from past practices.

The 2020 Belarusian presidential election highlighted the authoritarian nature of Lukashenko's regime and the people's desire for democratic change. The election's aftermath saw a wave of repression, with numerous political prisoners, including opposition candidates, facing lengthy prison sentences. The international community's response, through sanctions and condemnation, underscored the global rejection of the election's legitimacy and the support for the pro-democracy movement in Belarus.

The involvement of foreign powers

Belarus's close alliance with Russia has been pivotal to the latter's invasion of Ukraine. Belarus has supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine in several ways. In the initial stages of the conflict, Belarus lent its territory to Russian soldiers to attack Ukraine, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Belarus also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets.

There have been several reports that Belarusian troops were in Ukraine fighting alongside Russians, but these have been dismissed by the Belarusian leader, Aleksander Lukashenko, who has stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) would not participate directly in the conflict. As of early 2023, the BAF has not been involved in fighting against Ukraine and has remained on Belarusian territory. Lukashenko has also assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he will not involve his nation's armed forces on the side of Russia.

However, Belarus's involvement in the Russian invasion has been condemned in Western countries, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions against Belarus. According to polls, Belarus's participation in the military conflict is unpopular among the general population, with more than 50% believing that Belarus should remain neutral.

In addition to Russia, Belarus has also received support from other countries. In November 2024, Belarus granted asylum to Tomasz Szmydt, a former Polish judge who faced espionage charges in Poland, an EU and NATO member that has supported Ukraine in its war against Russia.

The potential for refugee outflows

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia and supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the early days of the invasion, Belarus was also involved in peace initiatives, holding Russo-Ukrainian talks on its border. However, the talks did not result in a lasting ceasefire.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been condemned in Western countries, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. According to Chatham House, Belarus's participation in the military conflict is unpopular among the general population. Protests were held, but they were quickly dispersed.

The Belarusian state and state-affiliated organisations have actively participated in the forced transfers of Ukrainian children. Belarusian activists have also disrupted the work of the Belarusian Railway, which transports Russian military trains, by destroying control points of semaphore signals and railroad switches and organising short circuits of the signalling system. In response, the Belarusian authorities have instructed a special military division to patrol the railways in plain clothes.

There have been warnings from NATO, US, and/or Ukrainian officials/authorities that Belarus may imminently enter the war to assist Russia. On 10 March, Lukashenko ordered Belarusian troops to join Russian troops near Ukraine, claiming that Kyiv posed a clear threat to Belarus.

Given the evidence of deep divisions within the Belarusian elite, among average citizens, and within the military, there is a potential for refugee outflows if civil strife unfolds. Different factions may take up arms, either to make way for the Kremlin's anointed leader or to maintain Lukashenko's network and patronage system. Lukashenko could also flee westward, potentially triggering a massive refugee flow into Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. If Ukraine is any indicator, with around 14% of its population fleeing the country, the West could expect around 1.3 million Belarusian refugees.

The role of the Belarusian military

Paragraph 1: Historical Context

The Belarusian military has a long history dating back to the early 20th century, when the country was involved in conflicts such as World War I, the Russian Civil War, and the Polish-Soviet War. During the interwar period, Belarus was a part of the Soviet Union, and its military forces were integrated into the Soviet military structure. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, Belarus regained its independence and established its own national armed forces.

Paragraph 2: Recent Developments and Alliances

In recent years, the Belarusian military has come under the influence of Russia, with the two countries sharing close military ties. Belarus has allowed Russian armed forces to conduct military drills on its territory and provided support during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This collaboration has led to condemnation from Western countries, who have imposed sanctions on Belarus. Despite assurances from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that his country's armed forces would not directly participate in the conflict with Ukraine, there have been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russian soldiers.

Paragraph 3: Domestic Politics and Civil Unrest

The Belarusian military has also been embroiled in domestic political tensions. In 2020, Belarus held a presidential election that was widely criticized by the international community as fraudulent. Protests broke out across the country, and the government responded with a strict crackdown, resulting in violent clashes. The Belarusian military's role in suppressing these protests has been controversial, and it has led to divisions within the military itself. Some soldiers have expressed opposition to participating in the conflict with Ukraine, and there are concerns that civil strife could escalate if the military becomes more involved in domestic politics.

Paragraph 4: Potential for Future Conflict

The situation in Belarus remains volatile, and there are fears that the country could descend into civil war. The presence of Russian military forces and the close relationship between the two countries' militaries further complicate the situation. If the Belarusian military were to fully align with Russia and intervene in the Ukraine conflict, it could face severe consequences, including international isolation and economic sanctions. On the other hand, if the Belarusian military defies Russian demands and seeks to maintain its independence, it could face a backlash from Russia, potentially leading to a direct confrontation between the two former allies. The role of the Belarusian military is thus a critical factor in shaping the country's future and its relationship with its neighbors.

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