The Blame Game: Armenia Vs Azerbaijan

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is one of the world's oldest, with the two countries fighting over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The region is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but is controlled by ethnic Armenians. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of around one million people. Since then, there have been periodic bouts of fighting and border clashes, with both sides accusing each other of initiating the violence. While the international community has urged both sides to cease hostilities and return to negotiations, there has been limited success in mediating a permanent solution to the conflict.

Azerbaijan's aggression and Armenian defence

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh has a long history, dating back to the Soviet era. The region, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, has a predominantly Armenian population and has been a source of tension between the two countries for decades.

In recent years, the conflict has escalated, with both sides accusing each other of aggression and violations of ceasefire agreements. Here are four to six paragraphs detailing Azerbaijani aggression and Armenian defence:

Azerbaijan's Aggression:

Azerbaijan has been accused of initiating military escalations and violating ceasefire agreements. In September 2020, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale offensive along the line of contact, resulting in intense clashes and thousands of casualties. This marked a significant escalation of the conflict, with Azerbaijan making gains in southern Nagorno-Karabakh and capturing one-third of the region. Azerbaijan's use of drones and long-range heavy artillery played a crucial role in their military campaign.

Additionally, Azerbaijan has been accused of targeting civilian areas and infrastructure, resulting in the displacement of thousands of civilians and the destruction of homes and buildings. The city of Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, was particularly affected by shelling and drone strikes, forcing much of its population to flee.

Azerbaijan has also been criticised for its blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh, restricting the movement of people and goods and creating a humanitarian crisis. The blockade has led to shortages of food, medicine, and electricity, with reports of widespread unemployment and school closures.

Furthermore, Azerbaijan has been accused of making irredentist claims over Armenian territory, referring to certain regions as "Western Azerbaijan" and threatening to use force to establish a corridor through Armenian territory. These actions have been perceived as a bargaining strategy to force Armenia to relinquish control of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenian Defence:

Armenia, on the other hand, has emphasised its commitment to a diplomatic resolution to the conflict and has called for international intervention to prevent further aggression from Azerbaijan. Armenia has also taken steps to strengthen its border security, allocating additional defence areas to border guards and requesting assistance from international organisations.

Armenia has also offered a peace treaty to Azerbaijan, covering a majority of the agreed-upon articles and emphasising its commitment to bilateral talks and regional cooperation. However, Armenia maintains that territorial integrity is non-negotiable.

In response to Azerbaijan's incursions and threats, Armenia has mobilised its military and taken defensive positions. Armenian forces have engaged in counterattacks and managed to repel some Azerbaijani advances, inflicting losses on Azerbaijani armoured formations.

Armenian officials have also highlighted the disproportionate impact of the conflict on the Armenian population, with thousands of civilians displaced and targeted by Azerbaijani forces. They have emphasised the need for the international community to recognise the risk of genocide against Armenians and take action to prevent further aggression from Azerbaijan.

Turkish support for Azerbaijan

Turkey has been a long-time supporter of Azerbaijan, and this support has been increasing. In July and August 2020, the two countries held large-scale military exercises involving 11,000 Turkish troops. Following the outbreak of violence between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly backed Azerbaijan, stating that Turkey would "continue to stand with... Azerbaijan with all its resources and heart". Turkey's support extended beyond rhetoric: an Armenian SU-25 was reportedly shot down by a Turkish F-16 over Armenian airspace, and there were reports of Turkey paying Syrian mercenaries to deploy to Azerbaijan.

Turkey's increasing support for Azerbaijan is part of a wider context of regional powers vying for influence in the South Caucasus. Russia has supplied arms to both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and was the most active mediator in the conflict, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov brokering a telephone discussion between the two sides. However, Russia's influence in the region is being challenged by other powers, including Iran and Turkey. The lack of a clear policy on the South Caucasus region from the Trump administration in the US has created a vacuum that these powers are eager to fill.

Turkey's relationship with Azerbaijan is in stark contrast to its relationship with Armenia. The two countries have a history of conflict, with Armenia accusing Turkey of committing genocide against Armenians during World War I. Turkey denies that a genocide took place and the issue remains a highly sensitive topic in the region.

International response to the conflict

The international community responded to the conflict by creating the Minsk Group, an institution within the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. It is co-chaired by the United States, France, and Russia. The Minsk Group is responsible for negotiations toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

From April to November 1993, the UN Security Council passed four resolutions in response to the conflict: Resolution 822, 853, 874, and 884. Each resolution expressed concern about the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and called for the immediate cessation of fighting. The UN supported the Minsk Group's ongoing efforts to negotiate a ceasefire. The UN confirmed their support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and urged all actors to refrain from supplying weapons, which might inflame the conflict.

The Minsk Group, the organization responsible for mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, issued a statement appealing to the sides to cease hostilities immediately. The US State Department urged both sides to cease hostilities immediately. Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, tweeted that "an immediate return to negotiations, without preconditions, is the only way forward."

Russia has been the most active mediator, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov brokering a telephone discussion between both sides. The Russian Security Council held a closed session on the conflict, and Russian President Vladimir Putin also urged de-escalation.

Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, publicly backed Turkey's ally Azerbaijan. Baku sent a deputy defense minister to Ankara, where Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar promised to help and claimed Yerevan would "pay" for the recent escalation—words viewed as an escalatory threat in Armenia.

Israel has apparently provided high-tech arms to Azerbaijan in recent years. On July 21, Armenia showcased alleged Israeli-made drones that it claimed to have shot down during the fighting.

Numerous countries and the United Nations strongly condemned the fighting and called on both sides to de-escalate tensions and resume meaningful negotiations. Three ceasefires brokered by Russia, France, and the United States failed to stop the conflict.

History of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians until 2023, and seven surrounding districts, inhabited mostly by Azerbaijanis until their expulsion during the 1990s. The conflict has its roots in the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which facilitated an Armenian separatist movement in Soviet Azerbaijan.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994)

In 1988, ethnic Armenians living in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) demanded the transfer of the region from Soviet Azerbaijan to Armenia. In February 1988, the enclave's parliament voted in favor of uniting with Armenia. As the Soviet Union collapsed, tensions grew into an outright war. In 1991, Nagorno-Karabakh officially declared independence, and full-scale war erupted. The first Karabakh war resulted in roughly 30,000 casualties and hundreds of thousands of refugees. A Russian-brokered ceasefire, known as the Bishkek Protocol, was signed in 1994, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent, with a self-proclaimed government in Stepanakert, but still heavily reliant on close economic, political, and military ties with Armenia.

Border Clashes (2008-2020)

Despite the ceasefire, intermittent clashes continued to break out along the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, particularly in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. The most intense fighting during this period occurred in April 2016, resulting in hundreds of casualties along the line of separation.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020)

In September 2020, large-scale fighting broke out along the border, marking the beginning of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. The war was marked by the deployment of drones, sensors, long-range heavy artillery, and missile strikes. Numerous countries and the United Nations strongly condemned the fighting and called for a ceasefire. Despite several attempts by Russia, France, and the United States to negotiate a ceasefire, the conflict continued for six weeks, resulting in thousands of military and civilian casualties. A ceasefire agreement was finally reached on November 9, 2020, with Russia brokering the deal and deploying peacekeepers to the region. Azerbaijan reclaimed most of the territory it had lost in the first war, including one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

Border Tensions (2021-present)

Following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan made numerous incursions into Armenian territory and regularly violated the ceasefire agreement, leading to cross-border fights with Armenia. In July 2021, clashes occurred on the Armenia-Nakhchivan border, and in November 2021, fighting took place in the Gegharkunik-Kalbajar area. In September 2022, Azerbaijan launched its largest attack on the Republic of Armenia in the history of the conflict. In December 2022, Azerbaijan began blockading Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in a new ceasefire agreement and the dissolution of Artsakh in January 2024.

The role of Russia in the conflict

Russia has played a significant role in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. As a mediator, Russia has attempted to implement a ceasefire through diplomatic negotiations led by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. However, these efforts have not always been successful, and the conflict has tested Russia's position in the region.

Russia has a security pact with Armenia and is a military ally, with a Russian military base in the country. Armenia is also a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) military alliance. On the other hand, Russia has cultivated warm ties with Azerbaijan and has supplied arms to both countries, providing a military balance, albeit a fragile one.

In October 2020, Russia brokered a ceasefire deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which quickly collapsed as both sides accused each other of breaking the agreement. The Kremlin held a meeting of its Security Council to discuss the conflict, and Russian President Vladimir Putin urged de-escalation. Russia also conducted military exercises in the Caspian Sea during the conflict, stating that these maneuvers were not intended to interfere or pose a threat to neighbouring states.

Following the outbreak of violence in September 2020, there were concerns that Russia could be drawn into the conflict. The presence of a Russian military base in Armenia and the country's membership in the CSTO indicate a closer military alliance between the two countries. However, Russia's arms trade with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as its diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan, suggest a more complex dynamic.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has had implications for Russia's position in the region. While Russia has been an active mediator, its efforts have not always been successful, and the conflict has highlighted the influence of other powers, such as Turkey, in the region.

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