France's Stance On Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Support Or Neutrality?

France's support for Armenia is a highly debated topic. Some speculate that France is supporting Armenia because of the large Armenian diaspora in France, which has a strong influence on the government. Others argue that France's support for Armenia is a geopolitical move to counter Turkey's influence in the region. France and Turkey have had a rivalry for decades, and France may be trying to limit Turkey's power in the Mediterranean region. Additionally, France may be seeking to gain a stronger position in the United Nations Security Council by supporting Armenia. France has also been critical of Azerbaijan's offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and has expressed concerns about a potential attack on Armenia. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has accused France of inflaming tensions and pursuing neo-colonial ambitions in the region.

France's support for Armenia is angering Azerbaijan, which has expelled French diplomats

On December 26, 2023, Azerbaijan's foreign ministry ordered the expulsion of two French diplomats over actions "incompatible with their diplomatic status." The move came amid already tense relations between the countries, as Baku had accused France of bias towards Armenia during European-mediated peace talks. Azerbaijan and Armenia have a long history of conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, with two wars fought between the two countries.

France's decision to sell weapons to Armenia, including air defence systems and self-propelled howitzers, has been a significant source of tension. Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, accused France of inciting conflicts in the Caucasus by arming Armenia. He also refused to attend negotiations with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan due to France's alleged bias.

The expulsion of French diplomats by Azerbaijan is likely a response to France's support for Armenia and an attempt to send a strong message of disapproval. This has led to a further deterioration in relations, with France expelling two Azerbaijani diplomats in retaliation.

The situation has also caused divisions within NATO, as France has sought military support from other members. France's decision to sell weapons to Armenia has been criticised by some, who argue that it could lead to further escalation in the region. However, others support France's position, arguing that it is necessary to counter Turkish and Russian influence in the Caucasus region.

The tension between France and Azerbaijan shows no signs of abating, and the diplomatic crisis is likely to continue. With strong geopolitical interests at play and ongoing conflicts in the region, the situation remains volatile.

France is strengthening its military ties with Armenia, including weapons deals

France's support for Armenia has angered Azerbaijan, which accuses France of playing a destructive role in the region and inciting Armenia to launch a new attack. In December 2023, Azerbaijan expelled two French diplomats, claiming they were involved in espionage. France responded by expelling two Azerbaijani diplomats.

In February 2024, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu visited Yerevan and announced several defense deals with Armenia. France agreed to sell precision rifles to Armenia and train Armenian military officers. Lecornu also confirmed that France would deploy a military adviser to help Armenia defend itself against potential aggressors. The two countries also discussed the purchase of short-range Mistral missiles and other defense systems.

Armenia is seeking to reduce its dependence on Russia, its longtime ally, following Russia's perceived inaction during the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia feels betrayed by Russia's failure to intervene during Azerbaijan's offensive to retake Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, which led to the exodus of Armenians from the region.

The strengthening of military ties between France and Armenia is part of a broader geopolitical rivalry and has raised concerns about a potential arms race in the region. Azerbaijan, backed by Russia and Turkey, is demanding a corridor through Armenia to connect to its exclave of Nakhchivan, which Armenia refuses to agree to. France's support for Armenia is intended to help deter Azerbaijani aggression and restore the military balance in the region.

Armenia is seeking to distance itself from Russia, and France is one of the only Western countries in a position to help

Armenia is seeking to distance itself from Russia, and France is one of the few Western countries in a position to help. France has a long history of good relations with Armenia, and the two countries share cultural and religious connections. France has also been one of the few countries to openly support Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan, which has irritated Azerbaijan and Russia. France has provided military support to Armenia, including a deal to provide the country with CAESAR self-propelled howitzers, which are compatible with NATO-standard ammunition. This move is likely to anger both Azerbaijan and Russia, as Armenia continues to shift its diplomatic and military efforts away from Russia and towards the West.

France's support for Armenia can be seen as a geopolitical move to counter Turkey's influence in the region. France and Turkey have had poor relations for many years, with Turkey threatening France on several occasions. France also sees itself as the main power in the Mediterranean and has taken steps to contain Turkey's influence. Additionally, France may be seeking to increase its relevance and influence in Europe, as its influence in Africa declines.

Armenia's decision to distance itself from Russia is driven by a perception that Russia has failed to support the country adequately. Russia's passivity in the face of Azerbaijan's attacks on Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenian territory has led to increasing defiance towards the Kremlin. Armenia has also taken steps to reduce its dependence on Russia, such as diversifying its military suppliers and seeking closer cooperation with the EU. Armenia's growing interest in the EU coincides with the bloc's renewed push for greater influence in the South Caucasus, particularly in expanding energy supply and shipments.

However, Armenia's shift away from Russia comes with risks. Russia has warned that it will reconsider its relationship with Armenia if Yerevan continues to drift towards the West. Additionally, Armenia faces the dilemma of how it would defend itself in case of a major military flare-up with Azerbaijan. While Russia is unlikely to defend Armenia, the potential for a military conflict with Azerbaijan cannot be ruled out.

France has a large ethnic Armenian minority and the largest Armenian diaspora in Europe

France has a long history of settlement by Armenians, with the first Armenians arriving in Francia in the Early Middle Ages. The Armenian community in France is the largest in the European Union and the third largest in the world, after Russia and the United States. The French Armenian community was largely established by survivors of the Armenian genocide of 1915, with others arriving in the second half of the 20th century, fleeing political and economic instability in the Middle East, and, more recently, from Armenia itself.

Armenians have a long history of integration into French society, with many famous French figures of Armenian descent, including singers Charles Aznavour and Sylvie Vartan, footballer Youri Djorkaeff, and politician Patrick Devedjian. There are also many cultural institutions and organisations in France that serve the Armenian community, such as the Nubar Library in Paris, which holds Europe's largest collection of Armenian books, periodicals, and personal archives of Ottoman Armenian individuals.

The French government has also been a strong supporter of Armenia, being the first European nation to officially recognise the Armenian Genocide in 2001, and helping to mediate a resolution to the conflict in Artsakh. France has also been a key partner for Armenia's relations with Europe, welcoming its participation in the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the European Union in 2017. In addition, France has provided military support to Armenia, including the sale of CAESAR self-propelled howitzers, which has angered Azerbaijan and Russia.

France and Turkey have poor relations, and Turkey is a rival of Azerbaijan

France and Turkey have a long history of relations dating back to the 16th century, when Francis I and Suleiman the Magnificent formed an alliance. However, in recent times, the two countries have experienced poor relations, with France opposing Turkey's accession to the European Union. In 2007, former French President Nicolas Sarkozy stated that "Turkey has no place inside the European Union." This sentiment was echoed by current French President Emmanuel Macron in 2018, who affirmed that recent developments in Turkey do not allow for any progression in their negotiations to join the EU.

Turkey and Azerbaijan, on the other hand, have historically shared strong relations. Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Azerbaijan's independence in 1918 and its restoration of independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Since then, Turkey has been a staunch supporter of Azerbaijan, assisting with its efforts to consolidate independence, preserve territorial integrity, and develop its economic potential. The two countries also share cultural and linguistic ties, which have been further strengthened by joint infrastructure projects, such as the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline, and military cooperation.

Given the rivalry between France and Turkey, and the close relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan, it is not surprising that tensions have risen between France and Azerbaijan. In December 2023, Azerbaijan expelled two French diplomats, citing their "activities incompatible with their status." In response, France expelled two Azerbaijani diplomats as a reciprocal measure. Azerbaijan has also accused France of supporting Armenia and taking a biased position in the conflict between the two countries. This accusation was fueled by France's deal to provide Armenia with CAESAR self-propelled howitzers, which is likely to anger Azerbaijan.

The poor relations between France and Turkey, coupled with Turkey's rivalry with Azerbaijan, have contributed to the strained ties between France and Azerbaijan.

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