Evo's Hideout: Bolivia's Turmoil And Political Future

Bolivia's first indigenous president, Evo Morales, was forced to resign in November 2019 after weeks of mass protests. Morales, who had been in power for nearly 14 years, was accused of undermining democracy and attempting to extend his rule beyond the constitutionally mandated term limit. He initially sought asylum in Mexico but later returned to Bolivia in November 2020, a day after his former economy minister, Luis Arce, was sworn in as president. In October 2024, an arrest warrant was issued for Morales, accusing him of human trafficking and statutory rape. He is currently in the Chapare region, surrounded by his loyal coca growers, who have warned of turmoil if he is arrested.

Evo Morales' resignation

Evo Morales resigned as Bolivia's president on 10 November 2019, following weeks of protests triggered by reports of irregularities in the vote count of the 2019 election. Morales called his removal "forced" and a "coup" but also said that he wanted to stop bloodshed from the election protests. He made the announcement from El Chapare, a coca-growing rural area of Cochabamba where he had sought refuge.

Morales was granted political asylum in Mexico, and a Mexican government plane flew him out of Cochabamba, stopping in Paraguay to refuel before arriving in Mexico. In December, Morales moved to Argentina, where he was also granted asylum.

Morales' resignation came after he was declared the winner of the 2019 election, but protests broke out due to a 20-hour break in the transmission of results, leading to concerns about vote tampering. Morales asked the Organization of American States (OAS) to conduct an audit of the vote count, and he agreed to a second-round runoff vote if the audit found evidence of fraud.

Morales' resignation marked the end of his nearly 14 years in office, during which he worked towards the implementation of left-wing policies, focusing on the legal protections and socioeconomic conditions of Bolivia's previously marginalized indigenous population. He also sought to reduce the influence of the United States and resource-extracting multinational corporations in Bolivia.

The disputed 2019 election

The 2019 Bolivian general election was held on October 20, with voters electing members of the Chamber of Deputies and senators, and casting ballots for a joint slate of president and vice president. The election was disputed, with incumbent President Evo Morales initially declared the winner.

The election took place after a referendum to amend the Bolivian constitution, which limits the number of terms to two, was rejected in 2016. In 2017, the Constitutional Tribunal (TCP) ruled that all public offices would have no term limits, allowing Morales to run for a fourth term. This decision was based on the Pact of San Jose regarding human rights and Article 411, which gives international treaties preeminence over the Constitution text.

Morales was declared the winner with 47.08% of the vote, a margin of more than 10% over his nearest competitor, Carlos Mesa. However, there were disputes over the transparency and legitimacy of the elections, with the Organization of American States (OAS) conducting an audit claiming "clear manipulation" and significant irregularities. The European Union also released a report indicating that their observers found many irregularities and chaotic processes in the election.

Protests broke out across Bolivia following the election results, with Morales's supporters and opposition groups taking to the streets. The military and police, along with the Bolivian Workers' Center (COB), recommended that Morales resign, which he did on November 10, accompanied by other high-level politicians. The government of Mexico offered Morales political asylum, which he accepted.

The second vice president of the Senate, opposition senator Jeanine Áñez, assumed the role of president on November 12. This decision was controversial, as her initial appointment was made during a brief legislative session that lacked a quorum due to a boycott by Morales's party, Movement for Socialism (MAS). Bolivia's Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal endorsed Áñez's assumption of the presidency, and MAS returned most members to both chambers, with some assuming key positions.

The disputed election and its aftermath marked a tumultuous period in Bolivian politics, with ongoing debates and investigations into the legitimacy of the election results and the role of various entities in Morales's resignation.

Morales' asylum in Mexico

Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, resigned from his position on November 10, 2019, after nearly 14 years in office. The resignation came after weeks of protests and unrest over a disputed election, in which Morales was accused of rigging the results to avoid a runoff vote. Morales fled Bolivia and was granted asylum in Mexico, with Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard stating that Morales' life and integrity were at risk.

Mexico has a long tradition of offering asylum to those in need and has historically been known for its inclusive and supportive nature towards those seeking refuge. This decision was based on two international legal instruments: the Havana Convention on Asylum of 1928 and the Convention on Diplomatic Asylum signed in Caracas in 1954. Additionally, Mexican law also recognises political asylum in its 2011 Law on Refugees, Complementary Protection, and Political Asylum.

Morales' nearly 14-year presidency came to an abrupt end when the military chief, Gen. Williams Kaliman, called on him to quit to restore peace and stability in the country. Morales' resignation triggered a power vacuum, with questions arising about who would succeed him and how his successor would be chosen. The situation in Bolivia remained tense, with clashes and roadblocks rocking the country following Morales' departure.

Morales' supporters praised his commitment to indigenous rights, anti-imperialism, and environmentalism, and credited him with overseeing significant economic growth, poverty reduction, and increased investment in social sectors like education, healthcare, and infrastructure. However, critics argued that his policies did not always align with his rhetoric and that his defence of coca production contributed to illegal cocaine manufacturing.

Morales' time in office was marked by his socialist ideals, focusing on the legal protections and socioeconomic advancement of Bolivia's previously marginalised indigenous population. He also sought to reduce the political influence of the United States and multinational corporations in the country.

Morales' return to Bolivia

Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, resigned from the presidency in November 2019, after the military urged him to do so. He fled to Mexico for asylum, but returned to Bolivia in November 2020, after Luis Arce was sworn in as the new president.

Morales' supporters, who include poor and indigenous Bolivians, have blocked roads to cut off food and fuel supplies to La Paz, demanding Morales' return to power. On the other hand, critics of Morales, including some residents of the blockaded communities, consider the pro-Morales protesters dangerous agitators bent on plunging the country into chaos.

Morales has retained his influence within MAS, and his supporters have been selecting party candidates for regional elections. However, there have been signs of dissent within the party, with some MAS officials choosing candidates that Morales did not endorse.

Morales has also faced legal troubles since his return. In October 2024, an arrest warrant was issued for Morales, accusing him of sedition and terrorism. However, the charges were later dropped, and the arrest warrant dismissed.

Morales has denied any intention of seeking a fourth presidential term, but his efforts to stay politically active have been met with opposition. In February 2020, the national electoral tribunal ruled that Morales was ineligible to run for a Senate seat.

Allegations of rape and human trafficking

In August 2020, Bolivia's former president Evo Morales was accused of statutory rape and human trafficking. The allegations were made after photographs of Morales with a young woman were published in the national media. The woman, identified as N.M., was reportedly a minor when their relationship allegedly began.

According to the Bolivian justice ministry, N.M. was 14 years old when she began to accompany Morales on trips. Deputy Minister Guido Melgar stated that photographs taken from the young woman's mobile phone showed her travelling with Morales. He also noted that, as a minor, she would have needed her parents' permission to travel. The role of N.M.'s family in allegedly "allowing" Morales to travel with her is also under investigation.

Morales has not commented on the allegations. However, his press office denounced the complaint as a “dirty war” by the interim government against the ousted leader. Morales' supporters claim that the accusations are desperate actions by the right to incriminate him and divide his party.

In addition to the allegations of rape and human trafficking, Morales has also been accused of terrorism and sedition.

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