Bolivia's Upcoming Elections: Date, Context, And Potential Outcomes

Bolivia's socialist candidate Luis Arce won the country's 2020 presidential election, which was held amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Arce's victory marked the return to power of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, which had been ousted in 2019 following allegations of electoral fraud against then-president Evo Morales. The 2020 election was a re-run of the chaotic October 2019 election that led to Morales' resignation and exile. Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous leader, had governed the landlocked gas- and mineral-rich South American nation since 2006. The 2020 election saw Arce win 55% of the vote, securing majorities in both chambers of the Plurinational Legislative Assembly.

The Movement for Socialism (MAS) party swept the 2020 elections

On October 18, 2020, Bolivia held general elections for President, Vice-President, and all seats in both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. The Movement for Socialism (MAS) party swept the elections, with Luis Arce winning the presidency with 55% of the vote. MAS also secured majorities in both chambers of the Plurinational Legislative Assembly.

The MAS victory superseded the disputed results of the October 2019 elections, which were annulled during a prolonged political crisis. The 2020 elections were originally scheduled for May 3, 2020, but were postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The MAS victory was significant for several reasons. Firstly, it marked the return of MAS to power after the controversial 2019 elections and the resignation of former president Evo Morales. Secondly, it demonstrated the enduring support for MAS in Bolivia, despite the political turmoil of the previous year. Thirdly, the MAS victory paved the way for a series of constitutional reforms aimed at consolidating the party's political project under Morales' leadership. Finally, the elections highlighted the lack of a strong opposition force in Bolivia, with no single opposition candidate able to channel the frustration or rejection towards MAS.

The MAS victory was also notable for the high voter turnout, with 88.4% of eligible voters casting their ballots. This reflected the importance Bolivian citizens placed on the election and their desire for political stability.

The MAS victory had far-reaching implications for the country's political landscape. It signalled a shift towards left-wing politics and policies, with MAS advocating for increased state intervention in the economy, social and cultural inclusion, and redistribution of revenue from natural resources.

The MAS victory also had regional implications, particularly in South America. It contributed to the so-called "pink tide," a period of leftist governments in the region. The election of Arce, a close ally of Morales, signalled a potential return to Morales' policies, including nationalization of industries and a focus on indigenous rights.

The MAS victory was not without its challenges, however. The party faced internal divisions, particularly between supporters of Arce and Morales, who both wanted to be the MAS candidate in the 2025 presidential election. Additionally, MAS faced opposition from right-wing and conservative civic organizations in Santa Cruz, who disputed the election results and called for strikes.

Despite these challenges, the MAS victory in the 2020 elections solidified the party's position as the dominant political force in Bolivia and set the stage for continued political and economic reforms in the country.

Luis Arce of MAS was elected president in 2020

Luis Arce was elected as Bolivia's 67th president in 2020, representing the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party. Arce's election came after a tumultuous period in Bolivian politics, which saw the resignation and exile of former president Evo Morales in 2019 amid allegations of electoral fraud.

Arce, a Bolivian banker, economist, and politician, was a member of MAS and served as minister of finance under Morales. He was chosen as the MAS presidential candidate for the 2020 election, which had been postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The election took place on October 18, 2020, and Arce won in a landslide, securing 55% of the vote. This victory superseded the disputed results of the 2019 elections, which had been annulled.

Arce's win was significant as it brought Bolivia back in line with its traditional position under Morales, moving away from the rightward shift of the interim government led by Jeanine Áñez. Arce's moderate and pragmatic stance, coupled with his commitment to socialist ideals, appealed to voters. He characterized himself as a proponent of MAS's socialist ideals but not subservient to Morales, the party leader.

Arce's presidency faced immediate challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for economic recovery. He successfully stabilized the economy and focused on combating the pandemic through vaccine procurement and an international call for patent waivers on vaccines and medications. Additionally, Arce's administration sought to address judicial reform and coca production policies.

Arce's economic policies and initiatives were well-received, with Bolivia experiencing a 9.4% increase in GDP in 2021, reversing the previous year's decline. He also realigned Bolivia's foreign policy, restoring relations with Iran and recognizing the administration of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.

However, Arce's presidency also faced criticism and protests from opposition groups, particularly regarding his economic policies and attempts to pass certain legislation. Despite these challenges, Arce's election as president in 2020 marked a return to socialist rule in Bolivia and a shift away from the interim government's right-wing policies.

MAS supporters protest against former president Evo Morales

MAS supporters have clashed with followers of their rival, Luis Arce, ahead of the 2025 election. Evo Morales, Bolivia's former president, has been leading thousands of supporters in a week-long, 120-mile march to the political capital, La Paz, to demand his participation in the upcoming election.

Morales, who was president from 2006 to 2019, was declared the winner of the 2019 election but resigned weeks later after protests triggered by reports of irregularities in the vote count. He then went into exile. The current president, Luis Arce, was Morales's former finance minister and the MAS candidate in the 2020 election, which he won in a landslide.

Morales has tried to expel Arce from the MAS party, but has been unable to do so as Arce controls the official leaderships of the social organisations that form the backbone of MAS. The two men are now rivals, both seeking to be the MAS candidate in the 2025 election.

Morales's supporters have presented the government with a list of demands, including the rejection of any measure that seeks to disqualify Morales from the 2025 election. In December 2023, the constitutional court put out a ruling that Arce's supporters insist rules Morales out of contention, though many experts disagree. Arce is now seeking a referendum on the issue.

Clashes broke out between Morales's supporters and counterprotesters earlier this week, with roughly 40 people injured. Counterprotesters tried to stop Morales's march with rocks and tear gas. The march reflects an existential split in MAS, one of Latin America's most successful left-wing parties.

Morales has a hard core of support among the working class, particularly in the coca-growing tropics of Cochabamba where he lives. However, he has also seen high levels of rejection among broad swathes of society put off by his desire to hold on to power. Arce, on the other hand, has never had a popular base of his own, and his reputation for sound economic management has taken a battering in recent months, causing his popularity to slump.

MAS is split between 'Arceistas' and 'Evistas'

The Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party, Bolivia's most important political force since its 1952 revolution, is divided between supporters of former president Evo Morales (Evistas) and supporters of current president Luis Arce Catacora (Arceistas). Morales, the country's first Indigenous president, is determined to be the MAS candidate in the 2025 election. However, Arce and his vice president, David Choquehuanca, are also seeking the candidacy.

The rift between the two factions goes back to the 2019 election, when Morales ran for an unconstitutional third consecutive term. He won the election, but allegations of fraud triggered massive protests. Under pressure from the army, Morales resigned and fled to Mexico.

When fresh elections were held in 2020, Morales selected Arce, his former finance minister, as the MAS candidate. The party swept back into power, and Morales returned to Bolivia. However, it soon became clear that both men wanted to be the MAS candidate in 2025.

Arce has accused Morales of putting people at risk for his personal ambitions and has suggested that Morales fled the country in 2019 to avoid confronting him. Morales's supporters have presented the government with a list of demands, including the rejection of any measure that seeks to disqualify Morales from the 2025 election.

In December 2023, the constitutional court issued a ruling that Arce's supporters insist rules Morales out of contention, though many experts disagree. Arce is now seeking a referendum on the issue. Morales has tried to expel Arce from MAS, but as Arce controls the official leaderships of the social organisations that form the backbone of MAS, the party has been paralysed, unable to take such decisions.

Morales has a hard core of support among the working class, particularly in the coca-growing tropics of Cochabamba where he lives. However, he has also faced high levels of rejection among broad swathes of society put off by his desire to hold on to power. Arce, meanwhile, has never had a popular base of his own, and his reputation for sound economic management has taken a battering in recent months due to fuel shortages and rising inflation, causing his popularity to slump.

The rising sense of crisis has led to a sense of uncertainty about the outcome of the 2025 election. "Evo is a political animal," said political analyst Wilmer Machaca, "But Arce has the state."

MAS is the country's dominant political party

The Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) is the dominant political party in Bolivia. It is a left-wing, socialist political party founded in 1997 and led by Evo Morales. MAS swept back into power in 2020, with Morales' former finance minister, Luis Arce, elected president in a landslide victory.

MAS's roots can be traced to the closures of the Bolivian Mining Corporation and the shutdown of various mines during the 1980s. Thousands of former miners turned to coca farming for survival, but they also encountered new hardships. The growth of the coca farmer community resulted in a sharp increase in organisations such as the Confederación Sindical Única de Trabajadores Campesinos de Bolivia (CSUTCB) and the Confederación Sindical de Colonizadores de Bolivia. The movement built alliances with the Confederation of Indigenous Peoples of Eastern Bolivia (CIDOB) and mobilised joint protests in a 1992 campaign titled "500 years of resistance of the indigenous peoples", which culminated in a march to La Paz.

In 1998, supporters of Evo Morales founded the Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (IPSP). In the same year, IPSP decided to adopt the name, banner and colours of the Bolivian Socialist Falange (MAS). In January 1999, the organisation adopted the name MAS-IPSP.

MAS-IPSP is the dominant force in municipal politics in Bolivia. In the 2015 municipal elections, it was the only party to contest the leadership of all 339 municipalities. The mayors of 227 municipalities belong to the party, as do 1,144 of the country's 2,022 municipal council members.

MAS-IPSP has emphasised modernisation, promoting industrialisation, increased state intervention in the economy, social and cultural inclusion, and redistribution of revenue from natural resources through various social service programs. The party has committed to equality, indigenous rights, agrarian land reform, constitutional reform, and nationalisation of key industries, with the aim of redistributing returns through increased social spending.

MAS has enjoyed nearly unanimous support among the poor, rural, and indigenous populations. However, the party has faced internal divisions, particularly between supporters of President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales, both of whom want to be the MAS candidate in the 2025 presidential election.

Frequently asked questions