Oas's Commitment To Bolivia: Understanding The Organization's Role

The Organization of American States (OAS) has played a significant and controversial role in Bolivia's political landscape, particularly regarding the 2019 elections and the subsequent coup that ousted then-President Evo Morales. The OAS's actions and statements have had a significant impact on the country's political trajectory, and its involvement has been a source of debate and scrutiny.

The OAS, an organization that promotes representative democracy in the Western Hemisphere, sent an Electoral Observation Mission to monitor Bolivia's October 2019 elections. Shortly after the elections, the OAS expressed deep concern and surprise regarding changes in the preliminary results, specifically the interruption of the quick count. The OAS called for a second round of voting, contradicting the official results that gave Morales a ten-point lead over his closest contender.

The OAS's position was criticized for focusing almost exclusively on the interruption of the quick count, which was not legally binding, and for ignoring the overall trends in the results that favored Morales's party, the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS). Despite the weaknesses in the OAS's argument, it fueled suspicions of electoral fraud and contributed to the escalation of protests against Morales.

The OAS returned to Bolivia to conduct an audit of the election, which found conclusive proof of fraud, including forged signatures and the presence of an unauthorized server. This audit played a pivotal role in the narrative of electoral fraud that led to Morales's resignation and exile. However, the OAS's findings and methods have been disputed, with critics arguing that the organization disregarded facts and evidence.

The OAS's involvement in Bolivia has been a subject of debate, with some accusing it of contributing to the coup and others commending its efforts to ensure free and fair elections. The organization's actions have had lasting repercussions on the country, and its role continues to be scrutinized and evaluated.

The OAS's role in Bolivia's 2019 elections

However, the OAS called for a second round of voting, citing irregularities in the conduct of the election, including the ""interruption" of the quick count and a "change of trend" in the results. The OAS's recommendation was surprising and controversial, as it was based on a non-official count carried out by a private firm, and the official count was never stopped. The OAS also failed to consider the possibility that the later-reporting areas were politically different from the earlier-reporting areas, which resulted in an increase in Morales's lead. Despite the weaknesses in the OAS's position, these suspicions of electoral wrongdoing escalated and radicalized protests against Morales.

Following the OAS's recommendation, Morales called for an international audit of the elections, and the OAS returned to Bolivia with a new team of experts. The audit report, released on November 10, focused again on the quick count and repeated some of the same statistical errors as the preliminary report. It also spoke of ""irregularities" without providing specific evidence. The audit report became a list of denunciations aimed at justifying the Mission's earlier report, and it failed to consider the possibility that the later-reporting areas were politically different from the earlier-reporting areas.

The OAS's role in the 2019 Bolivian elections has been criticized for its flawed analysis, which fueled a chain of events that changed the country's history and led to the overthrow of a democratically elected government. The OAS's allegations of fraud were the main political foundation for the coup that followed the October 20 election and resulted in the resignation and exile of President Morales. The OAS's actions have been seen as justifying its initial, false allegations of wrongdoing and precipitating the coup, with some calling for an investigation into the organization's role in the events.

The OAS's flawed statistics

The OAS's focus on the "interruption" of the quick count, which was an unofficial tally carried out by a private firm, was a serious mistake. The interruption of the quick count did not provide legal grounds to question the decision as it was halted at 83.85%, having previously announced it would only include 80% of tally sheets. Furthermore, the binding official count was never stopped.

The OAS also made a mistake in its assertion of a "change of trend" in the results. In fact, there was a steady, continuous increase in Morales's lead throughout the vote-counting process, which was easily projectable for any statistician and relied on the fact that later-reporting areas were more pro-Morales than earlier-reporting ones. This is a fairly common occurrence in elections worldwide. Despite the weakness of the OAS's position, these suspicions had a decisive effect on the escalation and radicalization of the protests against Morales in Bolivia.

> "Before the TREP [quick count] was suspended the results indicated the need for a second round of elections. After the TREP was reactivated, almost 24 hours later, lo and behold no second round is needed and Evo Morales is firmly ahead in the vote count!"

The OAS's audit report, which focused again on the quick count and repeated some of the same statistical mistakes, became a long list of denunciations to justify the earlier report, regardless of scale and impact. The OAS appears intent on justifying its initial, false allegations of wrongdoing that precipitated the coup.

The US's support for the OAS

The Organization of American States (OAS) is a multilateral forum in the Western Hemisphere. Its members are the countries from North, South, and Central America, the Caribbean, and Canada. The OAS was established on April 14, 1890, as the International Union of American Republics, and became the Pan American Union in 1910. It adopted its current name in 1948 with the OAS Charter in Bogotá, Colombia. The OAS has six principal objectives:

• To strengthen peace and security in the hemisphere
• Promote representative democracy
• Ensure the peaceful settlement of disputes among members
• Provide for common action in the event of aggression
• Seek solutions to political, juridical, and economic problems that may arise
• Promote, by cooperative action, economic, social, educational, scientific, and cultural development

The United States is committed to strengthening and working with the OAS, reflecting its determination to make optimal use of multilateral diplomacy to resolve regional problems and engage with its neighbors on topics of hemispheric concern. The US Mission to the OAS is headed by Ambassador Francisco O. Mora.

The US has actively supported the OAS in its efforts to promote democracy and respect for human rights in the region. For example, in Bolivia, the OAS identified serious irregularities in the conduct of the October 2019 election, which led to allegations of election fraud by the Bolivian government. The US supported the OAS's call for a second round of voting and rejected claims that the legal nullification of the fraudulent election was a coup. The US also commended the restraint shown by the Bolivian police and armed forces in remaining neutral and supporting the constitutional process.

The US has also worked closely with the OAS to address the situation in Venezuela. The OAS Permanent Council adopted a resolution on the Venezuela situation in August 2024, and US officials, including Ambassador Mora and Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Brian A. Nichols, have addressed the OAS Permanent Council on this issue.

In addition to its work in specific countries, the US supports the OAS in its broader initiatives to strengthen democracy and human rights in the region. For example, the US welcomed the reelection of Professor Nienke Grossman to the Inter-American Juridical Committee and marked the 23rd anniversary of the Inter-American Democratic Charter.

The Bolivian government's response to the OAS

On the other hand, the Bolivian government has also criticised the OAS, with the Bolivian Foreign Ministry issuing a statement that the General Secretariat of the OAS denied and repudiated, claiming it had a "repressive and threatening tone". The Bolivian government has also accused the OAS of ""colonialist interference" and of generating violence and social upheaval. The Bolivian ambassador to the OAS has asked other countries and international organisations to refrain from interfering in Bolivia's domestic affairs.

The impact of the OAS on Bolivia's democracy

The Organization of American States (OAS) has had a significant impact on Bolivia's democracy, particularly in relation to the country's 2019 presidential elections. The OAS played a controversial role in the elections, with some arguing that its flawed analysis and statistics helped overthrow the democratically elected government of Evo Morales.

On October 21, 2019, the day after Bolivia's presidential elections, the OAS Mission of Electoral Observers in Bolivia issued a press release expressing concern over a "drastic and hard-to-explain change in the trend of the preliminary results" after the polls closed. The OAS report called for a second round of voting, contradicting the official results that gave Morales a ten-point lead over his closest contender, Carlos Mesa. This recommendation was surprising as the electoral results aligned with pre-election polls and parliamentary elections held on the same day, which saw Morales's party secure a majority.

The OAS's criticism of the election focused on the interruption of the quick count, which is a non-official tally conducted by a private firm. However, this interruption was not a legal basis for questioning the election as it was previously announced that the quick count would only include 80% of tally sheets, and the binding official count was never stopped. The OAS also argued that there was a "change of trend" in the results, which has been refuted by statistical analyses showing that the overall trends were consistent and easily explainable by the fact that later-reporting rural areas heavily favoured Morales's party.

Despite the weaknesses in the OAS's position, its suspicions of electoral fraud had a significant impact on the escalation and radicalization of protests against Morales in Bolivia. The United States, a member state of the OAS, actively supported the narrative of election rigging and pressured the organization to maintain its position. Seeking to appease the protesters, Morales called for an international audit of the elections, which the OAS conducted, finding conclusive proof of election fraud. This further fueled the protests and ultimately led to Morales's resignation and exile.

The OAS's actions in Bolivia have been criticized as interfering in the country's domestic affairs and contributing to a violent coup against a democratically elected government. The organization's allegations of fraud have been disputed by statistical studies and experts, who argue that the OAS ignored geographical and demographic factors favouring Morales in the later-reporting areas. The OAS's failure to consider this obvious possibility has led to accusations that it knowingly made false allegations of fraud to serve its own interests and those of the United States.

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