Bahrain's Collapse: A Geopolitical Disaster In The Middle East

Bahrain, officially the Kingdom of Bahrain, is an island country in West Asia situated on the Persian Gulf. It comprises a small archipelago of 50 natural islands and 33 artificial islands, centred on Bahrain Island, which makes up around 83% of the country's landmass. Bahrain is the third-smallest nation in Asia after the Maldives and Singapore. The country has a population of 1,501,635 as of May 14, 2023, and its capital and largest city is Manama. Bahrain is a semi-constitutional monarchy headed by the king, Shaikh Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa.

Bahrain has a long history dating back to ancient times, with evidence of human settlement as early as the Bronze Age. It was also a centre for Christianity in the region for a period, with the village of Samahij serving as the seat of bishops. Bahrain later became one of the earliest areas to be influenced by Islam during the lifetime of Muhammad in 628 AD. Over the centuries, Bahrain has been ruled by various empires and dynasties, including the Portuguese Empire, Safavid Iran, and the Al Khalifa royal family, who have been in power since 1783.

In recent decades, Bahrain has undergone significant economic development, particularly in the banking and tourism sectors, and is recognised as a high-income economy by the World Bank. Additionally, Bahrain has established itself as a hub for motorsports and is known for hosting the annual Bahrain Grand Prix.

Given this context, the collapse of Bahrain would have far-reaching consequences, both regionally and globally. Bahrain's strategic location in the Persian Gulf and its economic importance as a financial hub make it a key player in the region. A collapse of Bahrain could lead to political and economic instability in the region, potentially impacting neighbouring countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Additionally, Bahrain's diverse population, including Sunni and Shia Muslims, Christians, Jews, and Hindus, could lead to increased religious and ethnic tensions in the event of a collapse.

Furthermore, Bahrain's collapse could have implications for global energy markets, as the country is a significant producer and exporter of petroleum products, accounting for 60% of its export receipts. A disruption in Bahrain's oil and gas industry could impact global energy prices and supply chains.

In conclusion, the collapse of Bahrain would have wide-ranging impacts, affecting the political, economic, and social landscape of the region and beyond.

The impact on the economy of the Gulf region

Bahrain is an island country in West Asia situated in the Persian Gulf. It is recognised by the World Bank as a high-income economy, and has the freest economy in the Middle East. The country has developed the first post-oil economy in the Persian Gulf, with a focus on the banking and tourism sectors. Bahrain's economy has benefited from the regional boom driven by demand for oil, although petroleum production and processing only account for 11% of its GDP.

Bahrain's collapse would have a significant impact on the economy of the Gulf region. As a major hub for financial institutions, a disruption in Bahrain's banking sector could lead to a loss of confidence and capital flight from the region. The country's tourism industry also contributes significantly to the Gulf's economy, and its collapse could result in a decline in tourist arrivals and spending.

Additionally, Bahrain plays a crucial role in the processing of crude oil from neighbouring countries. A collapse in Bahrain could disrupt this process, affecting the supply of refined petroleum products in the region. The country's other economic sectors, such as communications and commercial services, could also experience a downturn, further impacting the Gulf's economy.

Moreover, Bahrain's collapse could have broader implications for regional stability and security. As a close ally of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, Bahrain's collapse could create a power vacuum and increase tensions among its neighbours. This could lead to a further economic downturn in the region as investors and businesses lose confidence in the stability of the Gulf.

Overall, the collapse of Bahrain would have far-reaching consequences for the economy of the Gulf region, impacting not only its financial and tourism sectors but also energy supply and regional stability. The effects would likely be felt beyond the Gulf, as global markets react to the increased instability and the potential disruption to energy supplies.

The effect on the population of Bahrain

The population of Bahrain is ethnically and religiously diverse, consisting of Shia and Sunni Muslims, Christians, Jews, and Hindus. This diversity could become a source of tension and conflict if the country collapsed, as different groups might compete for limited resources and seek to establish dominance in the region.

Additionally, Bahrain has a large expatriate community, constituting about half of the population. In the event of a collapse, these expatriates might flee the country, leading to a brain drain and further economic instability. On the other hand, some expatriates might be unable or unwilling to leave, becoming displaced persons and adding to the humanitarian crisis.

The collapse of Bahrain would also have a significant impact on the standard of living for its population. The country currently has a high-income economy, with a well-developed banking and tourism sector. A collapse would likely result in economic turmoil, including high unemployment, poverty, and food insecurity. Access to basic services such as education and healthcare would also be disrupted, leading to a decline in the overall quality of life for the population.

Furthermore, Bahrain is located in a region that is prone to natural disasters such as droughts, dust storms, and flooding. Without a functioning government and infrastructure, the population would be highly vulnerable to these disasters, potentially leading to widespread displacement and loss of life.

The consequences for the Bahraini monarchy

Firstly, it is important to note that Bahrain is a monarchy with a long history, dating back to the 18th century when the Al Khalifa royal family first came to power. The monarchy has survived various challenges over the years, including protests and uprisings during the Arab Spring in 2011. As such, the monarchy has demonstrated a certain degree of resilience and adaptability.

Secondly, Bahrain is located in a strategically important region, situated in the Persian Gulf between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The country is home to a US naval base and has strong military and economic ties with the United States and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. In the event of a collapse, these external powers may intervene to protect their interests and maintain regional stability. This could take the form of military support for the monarchy or even direct involvement in the country's internal affairs.

Thirdly, Bahrain has a diverse population, with a Sunni Muslim ruling family governing a country where Shia Muslims form the majority. Tensions between the two groups have existed for decades, and the monarchy has been accused of human rights violations and marginalization of the Shia majority. In the event of a collapse, these tensions could escalate, leading to increased sectarian conflict and potentially even civil war.

Fourthly, Bahrain's economy, while diverse, is heavily dependent on oil and gas, as well as financial services and tourism. A collapse of the state could lead to economic turmoil, including a decline in foreign investment, a drop in tourism, and a deterioration of the country's financial sector. This could have a significant impact on the monarchy's sources of revenue and its ability to maintain stability and control.

Finally, the Bahraini monarchy's response to a collapse would depend on the specific circumstances and the extent of the collapse. If the monarchy retains some level of control, it may attempt to implement reforms to address the issues that led to the collapse, such as political liberalization or economic diversification. However, if the collapse results in a complete loss of power, the monarchy may be forced to flee or face prosecution for any human rights abuses committed during their rule.

In conclusion, the consequences for the Bahraini monarchy of a collapse of the state of Bahrain are difficult to predict and depend on various political, economic, social, and geostrategic factors. Potential outcomes include external intervention, sectarian conflict, economic turmoil, and either political reform or a complete loss of power for the monarchy.

The potential for civil war

• Sectarian Divisions: Bahrain has a diverse population comprising Sunni and Shia Muslims, with Shia Muslims forming the majority. Historically, Shia Muslims have complained of political repression and economic marginalization, which led to widespread protests in 2011. Such divisions along religious lines can fuel tensions and increase the risk of civil strife.
• Political and Social Grievances: Bahrain's ruling Sunni Muslim Al Khalifa royal family has faced criticism for alleged human rights violations against Shia Muslims, dissidents, and political opposition figures. If these grievances are not adequately addressed, they could contribute to rising discontent and fuel civil unrest.
• Regional Influence: Bahrain's strategic location in the Persian Gulf and its relationships with neighboring countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, can play a role in escalating or mitigating internal conflicts. Regional powers may intervene to pursue their interests, which can complicate the situation and lead to broader instability.
• Economic Disparities: Bahrain has a diverse economy, including petroleum, financial services, and tourism. However, if economic growth and job creation fail to meet expectations, especially in times of global economic downturns, it could exacerbate social and political tensions, leading to civil unrest.
• Demographic Factors: Bahrain's population includes native Bahrainis and a significant number of expatriates, with foreigners constituting about half of the workforce. Disenfranchised foreign nationals, coupled with marginalized groups within the country, could unite in demanding social and political reforms, increasing the potential for civil strife.
• Historical Precedent: Bahrain has experienced periods of protests and uprisings, such as during the Arab Spring in 2011. While these incidents did not escalate into full-scale civil war, they highlight the underlying tensions within the country.

While these factors present potential triggers for civil conflict, it is important to recognize that civil wars are complex and multifaceted. The outcome depends on various factors, including the effectiveness of governance, the presence of moderating forces, and the ability to address underlying grievances.

The geopolitical fallout

Bahrain is an island country in West Asia, situated on the Persian Gulf. It is recognised as a high-income economy by the World Bank and is a member of the United Nations, Non-Aligned Movement, Arab League, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, and Gulf Cooperation Council. Bahrain is also a Dialogue partner of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

• Economic Fallout: Bahrain has the freest economy in the Middle East and is a major hub for financial institutions. A collapse in Bahrain could disrupt financial markets and impact the flow of capital in the region. Bahrain's economy is also closely linked to tourism, and a collapse could deter visitors, affecting the industry and the country's revenue.
• Military Fallout: Bahrain hosts a critical US naval base, which serves as the headquarters for the US Naval Forces Central Command and the US Fifth Fleet. A collapse in Bahrain could force the US to relocate its military assets, impacting its military presence and influence in the region.
• Regional Stability: Bahrain maintains close relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, relying on them for military and financial support. A collapse in Bahrain could create a power vacuum and lead to increased influence from regional powers like Iran, potentially shifting the balance of power in the region.
• Diplomatic Relations: Bahrain has established bilateral relations with 190 countries worldwide. A collapse could disrupt these diplomatic ties and affect Bahrain's participation in regional and international organisations, such as the Arab League and the United Nations.
• Energy Security: While Bahrain has limited petroleum reserves, it plays a crucial role in processing crude oil from neighbouring countries. A collapse could disrupt the region's energy supply chain and impact global energy markets.
• Refugee Crisis: A collapse in Bahrain could trigger a mass migration of Bahraini citizens and foreign residents, leading to a refugee crisis in the region. Neighbouring countries would need to manage the influx of refugees and provide humanitarian assistance.

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