Azerbaijan Retaking Nagorno-Karabakh: Geopolitical Ramifications And Regional Tensions

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the world's longest-running disputes. The territory is recognised internationally as part of Azerbaijan but has been controlled by ethnic Armenians for three decades. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive and regained control of the region, leading to the exodus of tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians. This has raised concerns about potential ethnic cleansing and the risk of genocide. While Azerbaijan has stated its intention to reintegrate the region and its residents, offering them Azerbaijani citizenship, the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh do not trust these guarantees due to Azerbaijan's history of human rights abuses and Armenophobia. The international community, particularly Western countries, has been criticised for its passive response to the crisis, with economic considerations and Azerbaijan's increasing influence on Western decision-makers possibly playing a role in their inaction. The future of the region remains uncertain, with lasting peace appearing to be a distant prospect.

The impact on the region's demographics

The region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been at the heart of a decades-long conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The territory is recognised internationally as part of Azerbaijan but has been controlled by ethnic Armenians for three decades.

In 2020, Azerbaijan retook the historically significant town of Shusha and, by the end of the year, had regained sovereignty over territories in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. This triggered a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from the region. More than 100,000 people, nearly the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh, fled to Armenia in the weeks following the September 2023 military attacks.

The demographic impact of Azerbaijan's re-establishment of control over Nagorno-Karabakh has been significant. The region's ethnic Armenian-majority population has been displaced, with most seeking refuge in Armenia. This has effectively depopulated the region, with only older people and the very ill remaining.

The impact of the conflict on the demographics of the region is evident in the flight of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. This has resulted in a temporary depopulation of the region, with only a small number of people choosing to stay or unable to flee. The mass exodus has had a significant impact on the ethnic makeup of the region, with the Armenian population, which once constituted 95% of the region's population, now almost entirely displaced.

The impact of the conflict on the region's demographics is further compounded by the history of the dispute. The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh has been ongoing for decades and has resulted in intermittent clashes and full-scale wars. The first Karabakh war, from 1988 to 1994, resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people and the loss of thousands of lives. The conflict has also led to ethnic tensions and clashes, with reports of ethnic cleansing and massacres committed by both sides.

The demographic impact of the conflict is also evident in the efforts of the Armenian government to support the displaced population. The Armenian government has offered refugee status, the ability to seek Armenian citizenship, and financial assistance to those who have fled Nagorno-Karabakh. However, there are fears that the material and moral support for the refugees could diminish over time.

The impact of the conflict on the region's demographics is long-lasting and significant. The displacement of the ethnic Armenian population has effectively altered the ethnic makeup of the region, and the effects of the conflict will continue to be felt by both sides for years to come.

The likelihood of a lasting peace agreement

Historical Context

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh has a long history, dating back to the late 1980s and early 1990s when both countries were part of the Soviet Union. The region has been at the heart of one of the world's longest-running conflicts, with ethnic tensions and clashes between the two groups. Even though a ceasefire was brokered by Russia in 1994, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent, the situation remained volatile with periodic bouts of fighting and relative calm.

Recent Developments

In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive and regained full control over the region, leading to the official dissolution of the breakaway republic on 1st January 2024. This development has shifted the focus towards normalising relations and reaching a peace agreement. Both sides have agreed on core principles such as mutual recognition of territorial integrity, border demarcation, and the opening of transport links, but "details" remain to be settled.

International Mediation

Negotiation and mediation efforts led by the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have failed to produce a permanent solution. While they have successfully negotiated ceasefires, territorial disputes remain unresolved. Russia, France, and the United States have also attempted to mediate, with Russia playing a significant role in brokering previous ceasefires. However, the recent diversion of Moscow's attention and military resources due to its invasion of Ukraine has impacted its ability to maintain peace in the region.

Human Rights and Refugee Issues

The conflict has resulted in a massive exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, with more than 100,000 people fleeing to Armenia. Human rights organisations have emphasised the need for concrete commitments from Azerbaijan to respect and protect the rights of returning ethnic Armenians, including their right to education in the Armenian language and the exercise of civil, political, religious, and cultural rights without discrimination. Additionally, those who choose not to return permanently should be compensated for their property and provided access to their bank accounts and benefits.

Regional Dynamics

Regional powers such as Turkey and Russia have historically been involved in the conflict. Turkey, with its close cultural and historical links to Azerbaijan, played a crucial role in the 2020 fighting by providing military support. On the other hand, Armenia traditionally enjoyed good relations with Russia, but these ties have soured in recent years. Armenia's criticism of Russian peacekeepers and its exploration of alternative security alliances have further complicated the dynamics.

Economic Factors

Economic considerations and Azerbaijan's increasing influence on economic decision-makers in the West may impact the likelihood of a lasting peace agreement. Azerbaijan's growing military spending, propelled by oil and gas windfalls, has shifted the balance of power in the region. Additionally, economic sanctions or incentives from international actors could play a role in encouraging a peaceful resolution.

In conclusion, while there are challenges and complexities, the recent developments and international mediation efforts suggest that a lasting peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh may be possible. However, addressing the human rights concerns of ethnic Armenians, managing regional dynamics, and finding a sustainable solution to the territorial dispute will be crucial factors in achieving a lasting peace.

The role of international actors

Russia:

Russia has historically been a key player in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, given its close ties and geographical proximity to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia's role has evolved over time, and it has often been accused of playing both sides. While Russia provided military assistance to Armenia during the first Nagorno-Karabakh War, it also maintained relations with Azerbaijan, supplying it with weapons. Russia's primary interest in the region revolves around its geopolitical ambitions and energy exports to Europe. In recent years, Russia's attention has shifted due to its invasion of Ukraine, creating a power vacuum in the region.

United States:

The US has also been involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, with its response characterised by inconsistencies between the legislative and executive branches. The US Congress has traditionally been more sympathetic to Armenia, while the executive branch has pursued a pro-Azerbaijani policy, influenced by Turkey and the oil industry. The US provides military aid to both countries, although the Trump administration significantly increased aid to Azerbaijan. The US has also provided humanitarian aid to the region, which has been criticised by Azerbaijan as legitimising the "illegal regime" in Nagorno-Karabakh.

European Union:

The EU has been vocal in urging Azerbaijan to cease hostilities and calling for an international mission and sanctions. However, the EU's response has been passive, with executives unable or unwilling to adopt a common approach. Economic considerations and Azerbaijan's growing influence on Western decision-makers may have contributed to this inaction. The EU has sent a civilian monitoring mission to Armenia to contribute to border stability and deter Azerbaijani offensives.

Turkey:

Turkey is widely considered Azerbaijan's main supporter in the conflict. It provided "active military help" during the first Nagorno-Karabakh War and continues to cooperate extensively with Azerbaijan, including joint military exercises and weapons sales. Turkey shares close cultural and historical links with Azerbaijan and has a strained relationship with Armenia.

Iran:

Iran, another regional power, has officially maintained a neutral stance and offered to mediate between the two sides. However, Iran has pursued policies inclined towards Armenia, providing economic cooperation and serving as a vital supply route during the conflict. Iran's support for Armenia is partly driven by geopolitical considerations, as it seeks to counter Turkey's influence in the region.

Other International Organisations:

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and its Minsk Group have been actively involved in negotiation and mediation efforts. The Minsk Group, co-chaired by the US, France, and Russia, was created in 1994 to address the dispute and has successfully negotiated ceasefires. However, territorial disputes remain unresolved. The United Nations has also played a role, passing resolutions and calling for an end to hostilities.

The future of the Lachin Corridor

The Lachin Corridor is the only road that connects the Republic of Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh and is, therefore, a key artery for supplies. In December 2022, Azerbaijan blocked the corridor, causing acute shortages of food, medications, hygiene products, petrol, and other essential supplies in Nagorno-Karabakh. This blockade lasted until September 24, 2023, when the road was reopened and people began to flee.

• The corridor could remain open and continue to function as the main supply route between the two areas. This outcome would depend on a sustained peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as the willingness of Azerbaijan to allow the free movement of goods and people.
• The corridor could be closed again by Azerbaijan as a means of exerting pressure on Armenia or Nagorno-Karabakh. This could happen if tensions escalate or if there is a breakdown in diplomatic relations.
• An alternative route could be established, reducing the corridor's strategic importance. This could be in the form of a new road or the improvement of existing transport links.
• The corridor could become a demilitarized zone or a jointly administered area as part of a peace agreement. This would involve the withdrawal of Azerbaijani troops and the establishment of an international presence to monitor and maintain peace.

The potential for ethnic cleansing

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been described as one of the world's longest-running conflicts. The region is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has been controlled by ethnic Armenians for three decades. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s, resulting in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people and reports of ethnic cleansing and massacres committed by both sides.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive and regained full control over the region. This triggered a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, with more than 100,000 people fleeing to Armenia in a single week. The exodus left the region temporarily depopulated, with only the very old and ill remaining. Those who fled described their decision as motivated by fear and panic, caused not only by the military offensive but also by a nine-month blockade imposed by Azerbaijan and alleged atrocities committed by Azerbaijani forces during the 2020 war, including the killing and torture of civilians.

Azerbaijan has stated that it plans to "reintegrate" the region and its residents, offering them Azerbaijani citizenship and promising to respect their rights and ensure their security. However, these assertions have been met with scepticism due to the country's history of human rights abuses, Armenophobia, and lack of protection for ethnic minorities. There are concerns that, without international protection, ethnic Armenians who return to Nagorno-Karabakh could face arbitrary detention, torture, and persecution by Azerbaijani authorities.

To prevent further human rights violations and potential ethnic cleansing, international actors, including the European Union (EU), the United States (US), and human rights organisations, have called for sustained international monitoring and the protection of the right of ethnic Armenians to return to their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh. They have urged Azerbaijan to take concrete steps to facilitate this right, including allowing short-term visits to collect belongings and deal with property, as well as providing clear guidelines and guarantees for those who choose to return permanently.

While Azerbaijan has stated its intention to integrate the region's population as "equal citizens", there are fears that, without international intervention, the situation could escalate into ethnic cleansing. The Armenian government has offered refugee status and financial assistance to those who have fled, but there are concerns that this support could diminish over time. The passive response from the international community, particularly Russia's abandonment of its former alliance with Armenia, has further contributed to the sense of vulnerability among ethnic Armenians.

To promote a sustainable peace process and prevent potential ethnic cleansing, concrete confidence-building measures are necessary. These measures should include short-term visit policies, compensation schemes, cross-border cooperation on water management and cultural exchanges, and other forms of people-to-people contact. International donors have a crucial role in initiating and financing these projects to alleviate the real problems faced by the affected populations.

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