Exploring Azerbaijan's Status: Understanding Sanction Implications

Azerbaijan has not been sanctioned by the West despite calls from US Congress, the European Parliament, and Armenian officials for sanctions following Azerbaijan's attack and ethnic cleansing of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The region is home to tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians, and the attack forced more than 100,000 to flee in less than a week. While the EU has condemned the attack, it has not imposed sanctions due to Azerbaijan's role as an energy partner, providing 3% of the EU's gas imports.

EU sanctions on Azerbaijan unlikely due to gas diplomacy

Azerbaijan is not currently on the list of countries sanctioned by the EU. In fact, in 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Azerbaijan, hailing it as one of Europe's "reliable, trustworthy" partners. This was followed by a memorandum of understanding, signed in June 2022, to double Azerbaijan's gas exports to Europe by 2027.

However, Azerbaijan's recent military actions have put it in the spotlight. In September 2022, Azerbaijan, with the support of Turkey, renewed hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, forcing 100,000 people to flee. This has led to calls for sanctions from MEPs, with the European Parliament expected to call for sanctions against Azerbaijan over the seizure of the ethnic Armenian enclave.

Despite these calls, it is unlikely that the EU will impose sanctions on Azerbaijan due to its gas diplomacy. Azerbaijan has established more hard power, especially since the EU is turning to the Caspian Sea as an alternative source of gas after the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. Azerbaijan is set to play a pivotal role in Europe's energy strategy, with its huge hydrocarbon resources in the Caspian Sea. The EU is already heavily dependent on Azerbaijan's oil and gas output, which accounts for roughly 92% of the country's export revenue.

While some MEPs have strongly advocated for sanctions and a suspension of the gas deal with Azerbaijan, the power to impose sanctions lies with EU member countries, many of which are unlikely to upset Azerbaijan due to their dependence on its gas. Countries like Austria, Bulgaria, Romania, and Italy are dependent on Azerbaijani gas, and Italy is also seeking operating licenses for its oil company.

Furthermore, Azerbaijan has been successful in its influence strategy, recruiting former high-profile personalities from EU governments and cultivating ties with political parties. This has resulted in a lobby that supports Azerbaijan's interests in Europe, making it even more challenging for the EU to impose sanctions.

US lawmakers call for sanctions on Azerbaijan

US lawmakers have called for sanctions on Azerbaijan, with 75 members of Congress urging President Joe Biden to impose sanctions on the country. Led by Congresswoman Dina Titus, a bipartisan and bicameral group of lawmakers is planning to introduce the first-ever Azerbaijan Sanctions Review Act. The bill would require the Biden administration to determine whether a list of Azeri officials qualifies for sanctions under existing US legislation.

The draft bill highlights the Aliyev government's brutal repression of domestic political opposition, expressing "grave concern" for the human rights of Azerbaijanis. It also addresses the continued detainment, torture, and extrajudicial execution of Armenian prisoners, calling into question Azerbaijan's "commitment to human rights and ability to negotiate an equitable, lasting peace settlement."

The list of Azerbaijani officials to be sanctioned includes government ministers, judges, and prosecutors at all levels responsible for the ongoing political persecution of the country's pro-democracy activists. The bill specifically mentions Lieutenant General Hikmat Izzat oglu Mirzayev, Commander of the Special Forces; Lieutenant Colonel Elgun Aliyev, Chief of the Military Police; and Colonel Elshan Sanaev, Commander of the Azerbaijani Military 218th Commando Brigade, among others.

The US lawmakers have requested the enforcement of Section 907 of the FREEDOM Support Act, which prohibits US military aid to Azerbaijan. They have also called for targeted sanctions on Azerbaijani officials under the Global Magnitsky Act, sending a clear message that Azerbaijan's aggression will not be tolerated. Additionally, they have urged the provision of robust humanitarian assistance to support the displaced population of Artsakh and encouraged the international community to do the same.

While the European Parliament has also expressed intentions to call for sanctions against Azerbaijan over the seizure of the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, it is unlikely that EU countries will impose sanctions due to Azerbaijan's crucial gas reserves and lobbying reach in Europe.

Armenia urges EU to sanction Azerbaijan

Armenia has urged the European Union to sanction Azerbaijan for its military operation in the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, warning that Baku could soon attack Armenia itself unless the West takes firm action. Tigran Balayan, Armenia's envoy to the EU, has listed possible measures such as a price cap on Azerbaijani oil and gas, and the suspension of EU talks on closer relations with Baku. Balayan has also urged the West to deliver "bold" security assistance to Armenia, stating that "an attack on Armenia proper is imminent".

The recent Azerbaijani military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave on its territory populated by ethnic Armenians, has triggered an exodus of more than 100,000 Armenians in less than a week. Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing, a charge denied by Baku, which has insisted that the enclave's Armenians are welcome to remain in the territory. Baku has also denied any intention of attacking Armenia itself.

However, Balayan has argued that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's assurances cannot be trusted, noting that European officials have declared that he broke promises not to attack Nagorno-Karabakh. He has criticized the EU for failing to take concrete measures in response to the crisis, beyond allocating humanitarian aid. Balayan has insisted that the EU has real leverage over Azerbaijan when it comes to energy, as Baku relies heavily on European countries as customers.

The EU's response to the crisis is complicated by its increasing reliance on Azerbaijani oil and gas as an alternative to Russian energy due to the war in Ukraine. Prior to the crisis, the EU had already agreed to double its purchases of Azerbaijani gas by 2027. Despite this, some EU lawmakers are calling for sanctions against Azerbaijan, condemning the seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh and expressing support for Armenia. However, the power to impose sanctions lies with EU member countries, and they are unlikely to upset Azerbaijan's autocratic president, who has been successful in the lobbying war.

Azerbaijan's Sanction Status

Azerbaijan is not currently sanctioned by the EU. However, there is an ongoing debate and division among EU member states regarding whether to impose sanctions. While some countries, such as France and the Netherlands, are open to considering tough measures, others, like Hungary, Romania, Austria, Bulgaria, and Romania, are reluctant due to their reliance on Azerbaijani energy resources.

MEPs to vote for sanctions against Azerbaijan

MEPs are expected to vote for sanctions against Azerbaijan, but it is unlikely that EU countries will enforce them. Azerbaijan's attack on the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh has forced 100,000 people to flee, and the country has demonstrated unspeakable barbarism towards the Armenian population.

On the 13th of September 2022, with the support of Turkey, Azerbaijan renewed hostilities in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in the deaths of 135 Armenian soldiers, compared to 75 Azerbaijani losses. An Armenian soldier, Anush Apetyan, was tortured and killed by Azerbaijani soldiers, who raped her, cut off her fingers and legs, and gouged out her eyes, filming the entire incident.

Despite strong statements from officials, there are currently no concrete plans to hold Azerbaijan accountable. The EU Parliament adopted a non-binding resolution on the 5th of October 2022, condemning the attack and calling for "targeted" sanctions. However, the resolution is unlikely to be taken to the European Commission. The power to impose sanctions lies with EU member countries, and they are reluctant to act due to Azerbaijan's crucial gas reserves and lobbying reach in Europe.

Azerbaijan has established itself as an essential energy partner for the EU, providing as much as 3% of the total gas imports of the 27-state union. This reliance on Azerbaijani gas has increased since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with the EU seeking alternative sources. Azerbaijan's influence strategy has included recruiting former high-profile personalities from EU governments and working with former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair to advise on natural gas exports to Europe.

Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing and warned that Baku could soon attack Armenia itself. Tigran Balayan, Armenia's envoy to the EU, has urged the West to take firm action and provide "bold" security assistance to Armenia. He suggested possible measures such as a price cap on Azerbaijani oil and gas and the suspension of EU talks on closer relations with Baku.

While the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh has exposed a deep division over Europe's attitude towards Armenia and Azerbaijan, it remains to be seen whether MEPs' calls for sanctions will be heeded by EU member countries.

Azerbaijan's attack on Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijan is not currently a sanctioned country. However, there have been calls for sanctions following its attack on Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh is long-standing, with historical claims to the territory from both sides. The region is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but was inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians until 2023.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military offensive against the self-declared breakaway state of Artsakh, also known as the Republic of Artsakh, located in Nagorno-Karabakh. This move was seen as a violation of the 2020 ceasefire agreement that ended the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. The stated goal of the offensive was the complete disarmament and unconditional surrender of Artsakh and the withdrawal of all ethnic Armenian soldiers from the region.

The offensive resulted in a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, with nearly the entire population fleeing to neighbouring countries, primarily Armenia. Human rights organisations and experts in genocide prevention issued warnings that the Armenian population was at risk of ethnic cleansing and genocide. There were also reports of ceasefire violations by Azerbaijan after the agreement was reached.

The European Parliament has called for sanctions against Azerbaijan over its actions in Nagorno-Karabakh, but it is unlikely that EU countries will impose sanctions due to Baku's lobbying efforts and its crucial gas reserves. However, several countries and international organisations have condemned the attack and called for a cessation of hostilities and dialogue between the two sides.

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