Belarus Invades Ukraine: What Could Be The Outcome?

The possibility of Belarus invading Ukraine has been a topic of discussion and speculation for some time. While there have been instances of Belarusian involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, such as allowing Russian troops to stage attacks on Ukraine from Belarusian territory, the country has not directly participated in combat. However, in recent months, there have been reports of a buildup of Belarusian troops along the Ukraine border, raising concerns about a potential invasion.

The Belarusian leadership, particularly President Alexander Lukashenko, has repeatedly warned of perceived threats from NATO and Ukraine, justifying a heightened military presence. Lukashenko has also stated that Belarus would only send soldiers into Ukraine if attacked first. Despite these assertions, the idea of Belarus initiating a direct invasion of Ukraine is generally seen as unlikely due to several factors.

Firstly, public opinion in Belarus is largely opposed to the country's involvement in the war. Secondly, the Belarusian military is relatively small and lacks combat experience, making a successful invasion doubtful. Additionally, Ukraine has taken defensive measures, such as mining border areas and improving its military capabilities with Western weapons. Moreover, a Belarusian invasion would likely lead to increased sanctions and further isolate the country.

In conclusion, while tensions remain high along the Belarus-Ukraine border, a Belarusian invasion of Ukraine appears improbable due to domestic and international pressures, as well as military and strategic considerations. Nonetheless, the situation is dynamic, and future developments bear close observation.

Belarusian public opinion is against the war

The negative attitude of Belarusians toward the involvement of their armed forces in hostile operations in Ukraine reflects a fear of war, which is traditional for the Belarusian mentality. Citizens of this small country, which has experienced many armed conflicts and is located between Russia and the West, are mostly focused on survival. As a result, security and stability are absolute priorities in their hierarchy of values. This deep-rooted pacifist attitude in Belarusian society is reinforced by the Minsk regime's propaganda, which creates an image of a peaceful Belarus focused on stabilisation rather than escalation.

Alexander Lukashenko, the authoritarian leader of Belarus, has promised that the Belarusian army will not be sent to Ukraine, aligning himself with the mood of the majority of the public, which fears war. This stance has allowed him to partially maintain his electorate, estimated in recent polls at more than 30%. However, it has forced the Belarusian opposition to define a clearer stance towards Russia and the ongoing war.

While the direct involvement of the Belarusian army in the fighting in Ukraine is viewed negatively, Belarusians are sharply divided on their attitudes toward the war itself. The support expressed by more than a third of citizens for Russian aggression is a result of the traditionally positive perception of Russia as a "brotherly" country with similar cultural ties, as well as the strong influence exerted by Russian and Belarusian state media. Russian television is still treated by a significant portion of the Belarusian population as a source of reliable information and entertainment.

Despite the Belarusian regime's attempts to portray itself as peaceful, there is evidence that it has actively supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Before the start of the offensive, Belarus allowed Russian forces to perform military drills on its territory and launch attacks on Ukraine from its borders. Additionally, Belarus has allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets. There have also been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine, although Lukashenko has denied these claims.

The involvement of Belarus in the Russian invasion has been condemned by Western countries, and sanctions have been imposed. According to Chatham House, Belarus's participation in the military conflict is unpopular among the general population. Protests were held on February 27, 2022, the day of the constitutional referendum that revoked Belarus's non-nuclear status, but they were quickly dispersed.

Belarusian opposition leaders, such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Pavel Latushka, have condemned Lukashenko for participating in the invasion and expressed their belief that Ukraine will win the war. They have also called for similar sanctions against Lukashenko as those imposed on Putin, arguing that Belarus is just as much an aggressor as Russia.

In summary, Belarusian public opinion is strongly against the war and the potential involvement of their country's army in the conflict. This pacifist sentiment is deeply rooted in the country's history and has been reinforced by opposition leaders and activists. Despite this, the Belarusian regime has provided support to Russia's invasion, leading to international condemnation and sanctions.

Belarus is militarily weak

Belarus is a close ally of Russia and has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, Belarus is militarily weak and there are several reasons why. Firstly, the country is landlocked and has no navy. Secondly, the Belarusian military is relatively small, with an estimated 49,000 personnel in 2017 and nearly 350,000 reserves. The majority of soldiers are conscripts serving for a period of 18 months. Thirdly, the Belarusian military is equipped with outdated Soviet-era weapons and vehicles. While Belarus has received some modern weapons from Russia, such as S-400 air defence systems and 9K720 Iskander tactical ballistic missiles, the country's military capabilities are still limited.

In addition to its small size and outdated equipment, the Belarusian military also lacks combat experience. The country's involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been limited, with Belarus allowing Russian forces to stage attacks from its territory but not appearing to have sent its own soldiers into combat. There have been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine, but these have been denied by the Belarusian government.

Public opinion in Belarus is also opposed to the country's involvement in the war. Protests have been held against the Belarusian government's support for Russia, and there is believed to be widespread opposition to the idea of Belarusian soldiers fighting in the conflict. There is also a presence of pro-Ukrainian partisan groups in Belarus, which have been responsible for sabotage attacks on railways and other infrastructure.

Overall, while Belarus has a close relationship with Russia and has provided some support during the invasion of Ukraine, the country's military is relatively weak and untested. The Belarusian military lacks the numbers, equipment, and experience to launch a successful invasion of Ukraine, and any attempt to do so would likely result in defeat.

Ukraine has already defeated Belarusian troops

The Belarusian army is small, with no more than 15,000 combat-ready troops. In contrast, Ukraine's armed forces are now much better prepared for an attack from the north. They have mined the roads and fields on the border with Belarus, destroyed relevant bridges, and possess modern Western weapons such as HIMARS, Patriots ADS, and anti-tank missiles, which could prevent Belarusian troops from even crossing the border.

Public opinion in Belarus is largely against the country's involvement in the war, and there is domestic opposition to Lukashenko, who is described as the "last dictator of Europe." Pro-Ukrainian partisan groups have emerged in Belarus and are believed to be behind sabotage attacks, such as on railways, aimed at curtailing Putin's aggression.

The Ukrainian military has already demonstrated its ability to defeat Belarusian troops. In February 2022, a Russian helicopter without identification marks attacking a bridge near Slavutych entered Ukraine from Belarus via the unpopulated Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Additionally, in March 2022, two Belarusian truck drivers were killed in Korosten in northern Ukraine during an aerial bombardment, with the planes presumably based in Belarus. These incidents highlight the vulnerability of Belarusian forces in any direct confrontation with Ukraine.

The defeat of Belarusian troops is further evidenced by Ukraine's successful defence against Russian attacks launched from Belarus. For example, in February 2022, the Ukrainian side reported Russian troops attempting to break through the Belarus-Ukraine border at the Vilcha border crossing. However, Ukraine was able to repel these attacks and recapture the border region.

In summary, Ukraine has already demonstrated its capability to defeat Belarusian troops through a combination of military preparedness, public opposition to the war in Belarus, and successful defence against previous attacks launched from Belarusian territory.

Belarus is a puppet state of Russia

Belarus is often described as a puppet state of Russia. This characterisation has been disputed by the Belarusian opposition and the Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian parliament), which argue that Belarus is under Russian military occupation. However, several factors suggest that Belarus acts as a puppet state of Russia.

Firstly, Belarus has provided significant support to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Before the start of the offensive, Belarus allowed Russian forces to conduct military drills on its territory, and these troops did not leave as scheduled. Belarus also permitted Russia to launch part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Additionally, Belarus has allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its soil and enabled Russia to use its military airbases to launch attacks on Ukraine.

Secondly, there have been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine, despite assurances from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that his country's armed forces would not participate directly in the conflict. Lukashenko has also stated that Belarus would only send soldiers into Ukraine if attacked first, indicating a degree of alignment with Russia's actions.

Thirdly, Belarus and Russia have strengthened their military ties and pursued policies that suggest a level of dependence. In 2023, Russia announced it would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus under a nuclear-sharing agreement, and Belarusian units have been trained to use these weapons. This move has been criticised by the Belarusian opposition and Ukraine, who view it as a step towards internal destabilisation and a sign of Belarus's status as a puppet state.

Furthermore, Belarus has taken steps to align its foreign policy with Russia, revoking its neutral and non-nuclear status through a controversial constitutional referendum in 2022. Lukashenko has also stated that he would request Russia to bring nuclear weapons to Belarus if NATO moved to deploy them in neighbouring Poland or Lithuania.

While Belarus maintains a degree of independence in its decision-making, its close ties and military cooperation with Russia suggest that it functions as a puppet state to some extent. The characterisation of Belarus as a puppet state has implications for its international legitimacy and could impact its relationships with other nations.

Belarus is complicit in war crimes

The Belarusian government has actively participated in the forced transfers of Ukrainian children. These children have been deported to Belarus and held in recreational camps, with indications of re-education efforts by the Belarusian state. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has already issued arrest warrants for Putin and Russia's Commissioner for Children's Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, due to their involvement in the forced deportation and relocation of Ukrainian children. Given this, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has argued that the ICC should also issue arrest warrants for Belarusians complicit in these war crimes.

In addition to the forced transfer of children, Belarus has committed other rights abuses that may amount to crimes against humanity, according to a United Nations report. These abuses include the repression of protesters and dissidents, the widespread and unnecessary use of force, torture, arbitrary arrests, and impunity. The UN report states that these violations appear to be part of a campaign of violence and repression against those critical of the Belarusian government.

Furthermore, members of the Belarusian military have opposed President Lukashenko's decisions to work closely with Russia. Servicemembers have stated that they are against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and some military officers have even resigned or left the Belarusian military to serve as volunteers in Ukraine.

Despite the protests of its citizens and members of its military, the Lukashenko regime has dragged Belarus into the war. As a result, Belarus should face similar punishments to those imposed on Russia, such as limiting its involvement in SWIFT, seizing the assets of Belarusian oligarchs and government officials, and expelling it from international organizations and sporting competitions.

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