Russia's Grip On Belarus: Who's Really In Control?

Belarus is a small country in Eastern Europe with a population of around 9 million people. It borders Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Belarus was part of the Soviet Union until it gained independence in 1991. Since then, it has maintained close economic and political ties with Russia, and the two countries constitute the supranational Union State. Belarus has been described as a vassal state of Russia, with its economy heavily dependent on Russian financial contributions and its territory used to launch attacks on Ukraine. Russia has also been accused of suppressing the Belarusian language and opposition in the country. However, some analysts argue that Belarus is not occupied by Russia, as it maintains de jure independence and Russian troop numbers are not high enough to exert effective control. Nonetheless, the country's reliance on Russia is significant, and it has been argued that this represents a form of quasi-colonization or internal occupation.

Russia's financial influence on Belarus

Russia has a significant financial influence on Belarus, with the latter's economy being heavily dependent on the former. Belarus's economy is propped up by discounted oil and gas from Russia, with the two countries sharing a land border. Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner, accounting for about 48% of its external trade in 2009. In return, Belarus accounted for around 6% of Russia's trade.

Russia has used this economic leverage to exert pressure on Belarus, conditioning further economic assistance with deeper integration. For instance, Kremlin has conditioned future oil and gas deals and loan assistance to Minsk with deeper integration within the Union State, a political union between the two countries.

The dependence on Russia has also led to the suppression of Belarusian language, independent media, and civil society. There is a lack of content in the Belarusian language, especially for children. Additionally, the Belarusian economy is stuck in the past with its collective farms, and an unreformed economic structure.

Belarus's military support for Russia

Belarus has provided military support to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. In the lead-up to the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory. Belarus also allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Russian troops have since withdrawn from Belarus, but the situation along the border remains tense.

Belarus has permitted Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory, targeting Ukraine. There have been several reports from the Belarusian opposition and the Ukrainian military that Belarusian troops are fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine. However, these reports have been dismissed by the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, who has stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces will not participate directly in the conflict. As of early 2023, the Belarusian Armed Forces have not been involved in fighting against Ukraine and have remained on Belarusian territory. Lukashenko has assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he will not involve his nation's armed forces on Russia's side.

Despite Lukashenko's assurances, there have been concerns and warnings from NATO, US, and Ukrainian officials that Belarus may imminently enter the war to assist Russia. In October 2024, Belarus announced the transfer of an Iskander missile, Polonez MLRS, and special forces to areas bordering Ukraine, citing Ukrainian attack drones shot down over its airspace. Belarus has also conducted joint military drills with Russia and allowed Russian troops to enter and exit its territory at will.

While Belarus has provided military support to Russia, sending its troops to fight in Ukraine would be risky for Lukashenko, as it could provoke a serious wave of discontent within the country. Moreover, the Belarusian army is relatively small and unlikely to have a significant impact on the war.

Russian troops in Belarus

Russian troops have been present in Belarus since the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In February 2022, Russian forces were permitted to stage their invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. Over the winter, more than 30,000 Russian troops gathered in Belarus under the guise of joint training exercises.

In October 2022, following Russia's announcement of the mobilisation of up to 300,000 troops, Moscow began sending some recruits to Belarus to train due to a lack of available training grounds at home. Since then, thousands of Russian troops have undergone military exercises with heavy equipment at three locations in Belarus: Abuz-Lyasnouski, Lepel, and Repishcha.

In July 2024, satellite images showed the sudden disappearance of dozens of tents at these locations, indicating that the training grounds were being liquidated. At the same time, a new camp capable of holding up to 15,000 soldiers was being constructed in the village of Tsel, not far from Repishcha.

The presence of Russian troops in Belarus has raised concerns among experts and neighbouring countries that Moscow might be preparing to invade Ukraine from the north. However, as of July 2024, the number of Russian troops in Belarus was estimated to be between 3,000 and 5,000, which is considered insufficient for another attack on Kyiv.

The deployment of Russian troops to Belarus marks a continued erosion of Belarus's sovereignty, with the country's opposition leaders calling for the international community to recognise Belarus as a "temporarily occupied territory". However, according to international law and political theory, Belarus is still considered an independent dictatorship ruled by Alexander Lukashenko.

Lukashenko has denied giving permission for the use of Belarusian territory by Russian troops and has stated that he is opposed to further integration with Russia. However, he has confirmed his participation in Russia's war against Ukraine and has allowed Russia to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Belarus's economic dependence on Russia

Belarus' economic dependence on Russia has been increasing since the rigged 2020 elections, which led to numerous sanctions from Western countries. This has left Russia as the country's only regional partner, increasing the Kremlin's bargaining power and reducing Belarus' ability to resist deeper integration.

Energy Dependence

Belarus has traditionally imported subsidised oil and gas exclusively from Russia. Russian energy subsidies played a significant role in Belarus's economic growth in the early 21st century, allowing the country to save about $5 billion per year, or 15% of its GDP, on energy imports. Belarus used to produce 90% of its electricity and heat from gas. Since 2011, Russia has controlled Belarus's entire gas infrastructure through Gazprom, which also owns the gas storage facilities.

Trade Dependence

Belarus has historically relied heavily on Russia for both exports and imports, with over 40% of its total exports and 55% of its imports linked to Russia until 2022. This dependence intensified after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, with Belarusian exports to Russia soaring to over 60% by 2023, facilitated by Western sanctions against Russia and the loss of the Ukrainian market.

Financial Dependence

Sanctions have also forced Belarus to rely more heavily on Russian financial institutions, having lost access to international capital markets and major financial institutions. By the end of 2022, the government of Belarus owed $10.2 billion to the Russian government, Russian bondholders, and the Eurasian Development Bank (controlled by Russian authorities), comprising nearly 60% of its total government debt.

Foreign Investment Dependence

As of January 1, 2018, 55% of all foreign direct investment (FDI) in Belarus came from Russian investors, who have significant holdings in the energy, telecommunications, and banking sectors. Despite a change in statistical reporting in 2019 that lowered the reported figures, Russia remains the largest foreign investor, especially as Western investors are held back by sanctions and political risks.

Overall Impact

Belarus' ever-growing economic dependence on Russia is expected to deepen further if the war continues, due to continued sanctions and limited access to alternative markets and financial resources. This growing dependence poses serious risks to Belarus' sovereignty and economic stability, making it even more vulnerable to any political and economic changes in Russia.

Belarus's political relationship with Russia

Belarus and Russia have had a close political relationship since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Both countries are members of the supranational Union State, alongside other international organisations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations.

In the early 1990s, Russia was concerned that involvement with Belarus and other neighbouring countries would risk its relations with the West. However, as NATO began to expand, Russia found itself in a difficult situation. It felt that the West was attempting to isolate it, and so the importance of its relationship with Belarus grew.

In 1994, Alexander Lukashenko became the President of Belarus. Lukashenko maintained close ties with Russia, and in 1995, the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation was signed by both nations. This treaty was the beginning of the integration process, which was launched in 1996, and led to the foundation of the Union of Belarus and Russia in 1997. This eventually resulted in the establishment of a Union State between the two countries in 1999.

Despite this close relationship, there have been periods of tension. In 2010, for example, a dispute arose when Russia claimed that Belarus owed $231 million for gas supplies. Belarus threatened to introduce border and customs control on its shared border with Russia, and refused to attend Collective Security Treaty Organization talks in Moscow.

In 2020, Lukashenko accused Russia of trying to incorporate Belarus into Russia, which led to Russia cutting economic subsidies. However, the relationship improved when Moscow supported Lukashenko's crackdown on opposition movements, and provided $1.5 billion in loans, as well as preferential deals for oil and gas supplies.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has further strengthened the ties between the two countries. Belarus has allowed its territory to be used as a base for Russian troops, and has hosted diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine. In March 2023, Russia announced it would be stationing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

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