The Prize In The Afghan Endgame: What Victory Could Mean For The Us

The United States' war in Afghanistan, which lasted from 2001 to 2021, was the longest war in American history. The US initially invaded Afghanistan to defeat Al-Qaeda and the Taliban quickly and decisively. However, the conflict dragged on for nearly 20 years.

The US struggled to win the war in Afghanistan for several reasons. Firstly, Afghanistan's strategic location connects Central Asia and the Middle East to South and East Asia, making it a kind of a policy way station towards a political agenda. This means that when large empires go to war in Afghanistan, they come up against other countries' attempts to exert their influence in the region. For example, the US secretly armed the mujahideen during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

Secondly, the terrain in Afghanistan made it difficult to move people and equipment. Additionally, the geographic factors of the terrain informed cultural values, and outside forces did not always understand the unique relationship between the country's 14 recognised ethnic groups and its various tribes. During its military engagement in Afghanistan, the US forces emphasised working with Pashtuns in creating a government in Afghanistan. However, although Pashtuns are the ethnic majority, they are spread across multiethnic and multilingual tribes.

Finally, the US war aims in Afghanistan were riddled with contradictions and illusions. For example, President George W. Bush, President Barack Obama and President Trump have all offered convoluted, incomplete or unconvincing answers to essential questions: Why are we in Afghanistan? What interests justify our sacrifices? How will the war end?

The US has already ended its 20-year war in Afghanistan, with President Biden declaring that the US had achieved its goal of getting justice for Osama bin Laden

The US has ended its 20-year war in Afghanistan, with President Biden declaring that the US had achieved its goal of getting justice for Osama bin Laden. The war began in 2001 after the September 11 attacks, when President George W. Bush demanded that the Taliban extradite al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden to the US. The Taliban refused, and the US-led coalition invaded Afghanistan, expelling the Taliban and forming a security mission sanctioned by the United Nations.

Over the course of the war, the US goals evolved beyond counter-terrorism objectives. The US sought to instill democracy, improve women's rights, and strengthen US-Afghan ties. Reconstruction efforts focused on education, healthcare, and community development. The US also supported and funded the creation of an Afghan army, although this was a slow process due to competing interests and the decreasing perception of the Taliban as a strong threat.

Despite the US presence in Afghanistan for two decades, the Taliban remained a force in the country, using Pakistan as a safe haven. The US negotiated a deal with the Taliban that involved the withdrawal of US troops, but the terms of the deal have been characterized by some as a surrender. The perception of the war's end as a defeat could negatively impact American civil-military relations.

Veterans' opinions on the war are influenced by its framing as a victory or a defeat. When told that the US had lost the war, veteran and active-duty support for troop withdrawal decreased, while declaring victory increased support. The public's judgment about whether the US won or lost will likely affect civilian-military relations in the years to come.

Overall, while the US achieved its initial goal of getting justice for Osama bin Laden and had some successes in nation-building, the war's end after two decades without fully defeating the Taliban has led to a mixed perception of victory or defeat.

The US has evacuated over 120,000 people to safety, including Americans, Afghans who helped the US, and citizens of US allies and partners

The evacuation was carried out by the incredible skill, bravery, and selfless courage of the United States military, diplomats, and intelligence professionals. They risked their lives to get people onboard planes and out of the country, facing enormous crowds and knowing that ISIS-K terrorists were among them. Twenty service members were wounded in the service of this mission, and thirteen heroes gave their lives.

The evacuation included:

• 5,500 Americans
• 2,500 locally employed staff of the US Embassy and their families
• Thousands of Afghan translators and interpreters
• Thousands of citizens and diplomats from countries that went into Afghanistan with the US to get bin Laden
• About 100 to 200 Americans who remain in Afghanistan with some intention to leave

The US has shown that it has the capacity and the will to conduct one of the biggest airlifts in history

The evacuation was completed one day before a deadline agreed upon with the Taliban. The airlift was carried out by the US military with support from NATO allies. The operation was dubbed Operation Allies Refuge.

The airlift was a "feat of logistics and stamina" but was also marred by chaos and violence. The Taliban had taken control of Kabul and declared victory on 15 August 2021. With the Taliban controlling the whole city except Hamid Karzai International Airport, the Taliban assisted in the evacuation effort by providing security and screening evacuees.

The evacuation was not without tragedy. 13 US troops and over 170 Afghan civilians were killed in a suicide bombing at the airport on 26 August 2021.

The US has shown that it can act in the service of others, not just in a mission of war but also in a mission of mercy

The US has been involved in the war in Afghanistan since 2001, making it the longest war in American history. In August 2021, the US completed one of the biggest airlifts in history, evacuating more than 120,000 people to safety. This was in the face of enormous crowds seeking to leave the country, and the presence of ISIS-K terrorists. The US military, diplomatic corps, and intelligence professionals risked their lives to serve others, not for professional gains but in a mission of mercy.

The US has also been involved in humanitarian efforts in Afghanistan. Operation Mercy is in close contact with UN agencies in Afghanistan and is directly involved in two urban centres in the country. It has identified several districts in two major cities in Afghanistan where it is ready to run an intervention focused on assessment, supplementary feeding, and the prevention of malnutrition through an integrated health approach. It expects to serve about 29,000 households with education on how to prevent malnutrition and, from current assessments, at least 7,500 children and women who will need nutritional supplements or other support.

Mercy Corps has been working to improve the quality of life in Afghanistan since 1986, strengthening opportunities for sustainable and equitable livelihoods. It has partnered with communities to improve sanitation services, agriculture, and vocational training. Last year, it reached over 370,000 people across the country.

The US has also been involved in agricultural development, job skills for young people, natural resource management, and affordable renewable energy. It has worked with farmers and rural businesses to adopt more sustainable practices, rehabilitate economic infrastructure, and create connections with markets so they can increase their income, grow, and create jobs. It has also helped young people improve their employability and address the shortage of skilled workers by providing vocational training in jobs that are in demand.

The US has shown that it can adapt its strategy to changing circumstances, such as by withdrawing troops from Afghanistan

The US has shown that it can adapt its strategy in Afghanistan to changing circumstances, including the withdrawal of troops. The US has been engaged in the Afghanistan War, its longest war, for over two decades. Over the years, US strategy has evolved from defeating the Taliban to transitioning the conflict resolution to the Afghans, with Washington underwriting the financial costs.

Initially, the core objective of US military operations in Afghanistan following 9/11 was to permanently eliminate the possibility of a sanctuary for transnational terrorist groups like al-Qaeda. However, as a decisive victory over the Taliban proved elusive, the US strategy shifted by 2010. The focus turned to building Afghan security forces and maintaining a counterterrorism capability against transnational threats.

Former President Obama had planned to complete the withdrawal of US combat forces by 2014, but the Afghan National Security Forces' inability to hold territory independently against the Taliban led to a prolonged US presence. The Trump administration inherited this challenging situation and had to navigate the decision to build up or reduce the troop presence.

The limited approaches available to the US included a "status quo plus" strategy, which would involve a modest increase in troops with a primary focus on training Afghan forces and providing specific assistance in areas like combat support and surveillance. Another option was to pursue a political settlement with the Taliban while continuing to support the Afghan state and its security forces.

The perception of victory or defeat in Afghanistan can significantly impact American civil-military relations. While critics may characterise a negotiated peace as a surrender, proponents may view it as an honourable end to a protracted war. The terms of any potential deal will shape how civilians and the military perceive the outcome. Ultimately, the US must develop a strategy that protects the gains made in Afghanistan while working towards terminating the conflict.

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