The Unraveling Of Afghanistan: A Complex Web Of Causes And Effects

The Afghanistan Civil War was a conflict between anticommunist Islamic guerrillas and the Afghan communist government, aided by Soviet troops. The war began in 1978 and led to the overthrow of the government in 1992. It was caused by the overthrow of the centrist government of President Mohammad Daud Khan in April 1978 by left-wing military officers led by Nur Mohammad Taraki. Power was then shared by two Marxist-Leninist political groups, the People's (Khalq) Party and the Banner (Parcham) Party, which had emerged from the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan. The new government had little popular support and was bitterly resented by the devoutly Muslim and largely anticommunist population. Insurgencies arose, and the country was plunged into civil war.

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979-1989)

The invasion triggered a brutal, nine-year civil war and contributed significantly to the USSR's later collapse. The Soviets, however, were met with fierce resistance when they ventured out of their strongholds into the countryside. Resistance fighters, called mujahidin, saw the Christian or atheist Soviets controlling Afghanistan as a defilement of Islam as well as of their traditional culture.

The mujahidin employed guerrilla tactics against the Soviets. They would attack or raid quickly, then disappear into the mountains, causing great destruction without pitched battles. The fighters used whatever weapons they could grab from the Soviets or were given by the United States.

The tide of the war turned with the 1987 introduction of U.S. shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles. The Stingers allowed the mujahidin to shoot down Soviet planes and helicopters on a regular basis.

New Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev decided it was time to get out. Demoralized and with no victory in sight, Soviet forces started withdrawing in 1988. The last Soviet soldier crossed back across the border on February 15, 1989.

The invasion and subsequent war wreaked havoc not only on Afghanistan but also on the Soviet Union, whose economy and national prestige took a severe drubbing. The military misadventure would contribute significantly to the USSR’s later collapse and breakup.

The rise of the Taliban

The Taliban, meaning "students" in Pashto, first emerged in the early 1990s in northern Pakistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. The predominantly Pashtun movement first appeared in religious seminaries, which were mostly funded by Saudi Arabia, and preached a hardline form of Sunni Islam.

The Taliban's promise to Pashtun areas straddling Pakistan and Afghanistan was to restore peace and security and enforce their own austere version of Sharia, or Islamic law, once in power. From southwestern Afghanistan, the Taliban quickly extended their influence. In September 1995, they captured the province of Herat, bordering Iran.

Exactly one year later, they captured the Afghan capital, Kabul, overthrowing the regime of President Burhanuddin Rabbani, one of the founding fathers of the Afghan mujahideen that resisted the Soviet occupation. By 1998, the Taliban were in control of almost 90% of Afghanistan.

Afghans, weary of the mujahideen's excesses and infighting after the Soviets were driven out, generally welcomed the Taliban when they first appeared on the scene. Their early popularity was largely due to their success in stamping out corruption, curbing lawlessness, and making the roads and the areas under their control safe for commerce to flourish.

However, the Taliban also introduced or supported punishments in line with their strict interpretation of Sharia law, such as public executions of convicted murderers and adulterers, as well as amputations for those found guilty of theft. Men were required to grow beards and women had to wear the all-covering burka. The Taliban also banned television, music, and cinema, and disapproved of girls aged 10 and over going to school.

The Taliban were in power in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. In 2001, the US-led military coalition removed the Taliban from power. However, the Taliban regrouped and, in 2021, they retook control of Afghanistan.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan (2001)

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 was a direct response to the September 11 attacks, which were carried out by Al-Qaeda, a terrorist network led by Osama bin Laden. The invasion was the opening salvo in the United States' "war on terror" and was intended to target and dismantle Al-Qaeda, which was based in Afghanistan, and to topple the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirate, which had provided sanctuary for Al-Qaeda.

The invasion, dubbed "Operation Enduring Freedom" in US military parlance, began on October 7, 2001, with an intense bombing campaign by American and British forces, with logistical support from other nations including France, Germany, Australia and Canada. The invasion was preceded by weeks of demands by the US and the UN Security Council for the Taliban to turn over Osama bin Laden for prosecution. After deeming the Taliban's counteroffers unsatisfactory, the invasion began with an aerial bombardment of Taliban and Al-Qaeda installations in major cities. Other coalition planes flew in airdrops of humanitarian supplies for Afghan civilians.

The coalition began a ground invasion, with Northern Alliance forces providing most of the troops and the US and other nations giving air and ground support. On November 12, a little over a month after the military action began, Taliban officials and their forces retreated from the capital of Kabul. By early December, Kandahar, the last Taliban stronghold, had fallen, and Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar went into hiding. Al-Qaeda fighters continued to hide out in Afghanistan's mountainous Tora Bora region, where they were engaged by anti-Taliban Afghan forces, backed by US Special Forces troops. Al-Qaeda soon initiated a truce, which is now believed to have been a ploy to allow Osama bin Laden and other key Al-Qaeda members time to escape into neighbouring Pakistan.

The invasion was a striking military success for the coalition, with fewer than 12 US soldiers dying between October and March, compared to some 15,000 Taliban killed or taken prisoner. However, the failure to capture bin Laden or negotiate with the Taliban set the course for a long war. Bin Laden was eventually killed in Pakistan by US Navy SEALS in May 2011.

The Taliban's offensive (2021)

The 2021 Taliban offensive was a military offensive by the Taliban and allied militants that led to the fall of the Kabul-based Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the end of the nearly 20-year War in Afghanistan. The offensive began on May 1, 2021, coinciding with the withdrawal of the United States' 2,500 troops in Afghanistan, and those belonging to other international allies.

The offensive included a continuation of the bottom-up succession of negotiated or paid surrenders to the Taliban from the village level upwards that started following the February 2020 US-Taliban deal. The Taliban victory had widespread domestic and international ramifications regarding human rights and the proliferation of terrorism.

The Taliban's effective use of online social media, its strategic choice of attacking northern provinces, and the Taliban's freedom of movement on the main Afghan highways that resulted from the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) following the US-recommended strategy of sacrificing rural areas in favour of defending key urban centres were factors that led to the Taliban's success.

The Taliban captured the provincial capitals of Qalat, Terenkot, Pul-e-Alam, Feruz Koh, Qal-e-Naw, and Lashkar Gah, hours after capturing Herat and Kandahar cities. It so far had control over 18 provincial capitals across Afghanistan.

The offensive resulted in the collapse of the Afghan government and the reinstatement of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

The fall of Kabul (2021)

The fall of Kabul in 2021 was the final action of the War in Afghanistan and marked a total victory for the Taliban. It led to the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan under President Ashraf Ghani and the reinstatement of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban.

The fall of Kabul was caused by a multitude of factors, including:

• The US-Taliban deal, signed on February 29, 2020, which stipulated the withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan by 2021. The deal did not involve the then Afghan government, and the US dramatically reduced its air attacks, depriving the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) of a critical edge in fighting the Taliban insurgency.
• The Taliban's major offensive that began in May 2021, during which the group took most of Afghanistan's provinces in rapid succession.
• The demoralization of the Afghan military, with many officers claiming they had not received salaries in months.
• The corruption of the Afghan government and the elite military units' inability to safeguard government holdouts without support from local leaders and military personnel on the ground.
• The Taliban's strategy to take control of the capital through peaceful negotiations instead of a violent offensive.
• The Biden administration's commitment to fulfilling the Doha agreement and its guarantee of a complete withdrawal of US troops by August 31, 2021.

The fall of Kabul had far-reaching consequences. The Afghan government collapsed, and President Ghani fled the country. The Taliban declared the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan from the presidential palace in Kabul. The US and its coalition partners evacuated more than 123,000 people from Afghanistan via airlifts from Kabul International Airport. A suicide bombing at the airport on August 26 killed over 180 people, including 13 American troops. The Pentagon later admitted that a US drone strike aimed at presumed Islamic State members killed ten civilians.

The fall of Kabul also had a significant impact on the Afghan people, especially women. Girls were taken out of high school, and women were barred from universities and workplaces. The Taliban reimposed restrictions on women's appearance and movement, and female-owned businesses were shut down. The humanitarian situation in Afghanistan deteriorated, with food prices soaring and basic services becoming inaccessible. The country also faced a growing humanitarian crisis due to climate change and global food and energy market disruptions.

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