The Bleak Legacy Of Afghanistan's Enduring War

Afghanistan has a long history of domination by foreign conquerors and strife among internally warring factions. The country was invaded by the US and its allies in 2001 following the 9/11 attacks, which were plotted by al-Qaeda from Afghanistan. The US-led invasion ousted the Taliban regime, which had refused to hand over Osama bin Laden. The Taliban leadership relocated to southern Afghanistan and across the border to Pakistan, from where they waged an insurgency against the Western-backed government in Kabul, Afghan national security forces, and international coalition troops.

The US-led coalition remained in Afghanistan, forming a security mission with the goal of creating a new democratic authority in the country that would prevent the Taliban from returning to power. A new Afghan Interim Administration was established, and international rebuilding efforts were launched. However, the Taliban reorganised under their founder, Mullah Omar, and began a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces. Insurgents from the Taliban and other Islamist groups waged asymmetric warfare, fighting with guerrilla warfare in the countryside, suicide attacks against urban targets, and reprisals against perceived Afghan collaborators.

The US-led coalition forces bore the heaviest losses. By spring 2010, more than 1,000 US troops had been killed in Afghanistan, while the British troops suffered some 300 deaths and the Canadians some 150. The war lost popularity in many Western countries, creating domestic political pressure to keep troops out of harm's way or to withdraw them altogether.

Despite vast powers under the constitution, Afghan President Hamid Karzai was widely regarded as a weak leader who grew increasingly isolated as the war progressed. He survived several assassination attempts and security concerns kept him largely confined to the presidential palace in Kabul. Karzai's government was beset by corruption, and efforts to build a national army and a police force were troubled from the start by inadequate international support and ethnic differences between Afghans.

The Taliban's resurgence corresponded with a rise in anti-American and anti-Western sentiment among Afghans. Those feelings were nurtured by the sluggish pace of reconstruction, allegations of prisoner abuse at US detention facilities, widespread corruption in the Afghan government, and civilian casualties caused by US and NATO bombings.

The Taliban's rise to power

The Taliban, a predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group, first rose to power in Afghanistan in 1996, seven years after the Soviet withdrawal from the country. The group was formed by Afghan mujahideen, or Islamic guerrilla fighters, who had resisted the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The Taliban's rise was facilitated by six factors:

• The downfall of the government the Soviets had left behind in Kabul.
• Pushtun resentment that the new regime was dominated by non-Pushtuns.
• Large-scale external assistance, especially from Pakistan.
• Chronic divisions among the non-Pushtuns.
• Popular fatigue with the constant conflict following the Soviet departure.
• Limited external assistance to non-Pushtun forces.

The Taliban's efforts were initially embraced by war-ravaged Afghans, who were weary of the corruption, brutality, and incessant fighting of Mujahideen warlords. However, the Taliban's promise to end the chaos of war and warlords soon resulted in the imposition of a strict interpretation of Islamic law. They decreed amputations and executions for criminals, imposed severe restrictions on women, and banned television, considered a symbol of Western decadence.

The Taliban's rule was brutal, and they became as brutal as their predecessors, slaughtering civilians, burning houses, and destroying crops in the villages and towns they conquered. As a result, the Afghan people became far less supportive of the ruling government, and the Taliban found it difficult to recruit native Afghan men into its ranks. Once again, Pakistan and Osama bin Laden helped fill the void.

In 2001, the Taliban controlled as much as 90% of Afghanistan, with the Northern Alliance confined to the country's northeast corner. The Taliban's refusal to extradite Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, led to the US-led invasion of Afghanistan and the toppling of the Taliban regime. However, the Taliban survived and waged a twenty-year insurgency against the US-backed government in Kabul. In 2021, the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan after US troops withdrew from the country.

The US-led invasion

The US-led coalition consisted of the US and its allies, including the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Australia, and Denmark. The coalition forces drove the Taliban from power and built military bases near major cities across the country. The Taliban leadership relocated to southern Afghanistan and across the border to Pakistan, from where they waged an insurgency against the Western-backed government in Kabul, Afghan national security forces, and international coalition troops.

The Taliban regime unravelled rapidly after its loss at Mazar-e-Sharif on November 9, 2001, to forces loyal to Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek military leader. Over the next week, Taliban strongholds crumbled after coalition and Northern Alliance offensives. On November 13, the Taliban retreated without a fight as the Northern Alliance marched into Kabul.

The largest city in southern Afghanistan and the Taliban's spiritual home, Kandahar, fell on December 6, marking the end of Taliban power. It had been besieged by a force led by Karzai that moved in from the north and one commanded by Gul Agha Sherzai that advanced from the south.

The Taliban's resurgence

• US-Taliban Doha Agreement: The agreement, signed in February 2020, set a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The US pledged to reduce its troops to approximately 8,500 within 135 days and complete a full withdrawal within 14 months. In return, the Taliban pledged to prevent territory under its control from being used by terrorist groups and to enter negotiations with the Afghan government. However, no official ceasefire was put in place, and the Taliban quickly resumed attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians.
• Lack of a unified Afghan government: The Taliban capitalized on the disunity among various Afghan factions, such as the Northern Alliance and the government led by Hamid Karzai. The Taliban also received support from Pakistan, which viewed the Taliban as a partner in its competition with India.
• Inadequate training and equipment of Afghan security forces: Despite billions of dollars in aid and two decades of support, the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) were ill-prepared to maintain security after the US withdrawal. They faced significant challenges in holding territory and defending population centers, suffering heavy casualties in their fight against the Taliban.
• Resurgence of other extremist groups: The rise of other extremist groups, such as ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), further exacerbated the situation. ISIS-K targeted civilians with suicide attacks and had a presence in several eastern provinces of Afghanistan.
• Withdrawal of US and NATO troops: The withdrawal of US and NATO troops left a security vacuum that the Taliban was quick to fill. The Afghan government and security forces were unable to withstand the Taliban's offensive without external support.
• Failure to eliminate Taliban safe havens: The Taliban leadership relocated to southern Afghanistan and across the border to Pakistan, from where they waged an insurgency against the Western-backed government in Kabul. The US and its allies failed to eliminate these safe havens, allowing the Taliban to regroup and launch attacks.
• Ineffective counterinsurgency strategy: The US and its allies focused on nation-building and counterterrorism rather than effectively countering the Taliban insurgency. The Taliban adapted their tactics, adopting suicide bombings and improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which caused heavy casualties.

The US-Taliban peace deal

• Ceasefire: Negotiators agreed to a temporary reduction in violence and said that a lasting ceasefire among US, Taliban, and Afghan forces would be part of intra-Afghan negotiations.
• Withdrawal of foreign forces: The US agreed to reduce its troops in Afghanistan from 12,000 to 8,600 within 135 days. If the Taliban followed through on its commitments, all US and other foreign troops would leave Afghanistan within fourteen months.
• Intra-Afghan negotiations: The Taliban agreed to start talks with the Afghan government in March 2020.
• Counterterrorism assurances: The Taliban guaranteed that Afghanistan will not be used by any of its members or terrorist groups to threaten the security of the US and its allies.

The agreement was only the first step to achieving lasting peace. The bigger challenge was negotiating an agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government on Afghanistan's future. Many Afghans feared that a US withdrawal could spark new conflict and eventually allow the Taliban to regain control.

The peace process faced several challenges, including a weak central government, continued Taliban violence, and objections by outside countries. The Taliban was stronger than ever, with an estimated 60,000 fighters, and continued to launch major attacks. The intra-Afghan talks were off to a precarious start following the US-Taliban deal, as the Afghan government said it had not committed to a prisoner swap with the Taliban.

The US-Taliban deal did not bring peace to Afghanistan. Violence continued to escalate, and in 2021, the Taliban launched a broad offensive throughout the summer, successfully reestablishing their control over the country. On August 15, 2021, the last president of the Islamic Republic, Ashraf Ghani, fled the country, and the Taliban declared victory. By August 30, 2021, the last American military aircraft departed from Afghanistan, ending the US-led military presence in the country.

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan

The Taliban's offensive began in May 2021, as the group ramped up attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians. By August, the Taliban had seized several border crossings and began direct assaults on urban areas. On August 6, the Taliban captured the capital of southern Nimruz Province, the first provincial capital to fall. Within days, the Taliban had captured more than ten other capitals, including Mazar-i-Sharif in the north and Jalalabad in the east.

On August 15, 2021, Taliban fighters entered the capital of Kabul, and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. The Taliban announced that they had entered the presidential palace, taken control of Kabul, and were establishing checkpoints to maintain security.

The speed of the Taliban's territorial gains and the collapse of the Afghan government surprised U.S. officials and allies. The takeover brought an end to the fighting between Taliban fighters and U.S. and Afghan government forces. However, violence remains widespread, with the Islamic State in Khorasan terrorist group increasing attacks on civilians throughout the country.

The Taliban's return to power has had devastating consequences for the rights of women and girls, who now face severe restrictions on their education and employment. The Taliban's harsh interpretation of Islamic law has also led to public floggings and executions. In addition, the takeover has exacerbated the country's humanitarian crisis, with Afghans suffering from food shortages, malnutrition, and a struggling healthcare system.

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