Belarus' Progress In The Dtm Stages

Belarus is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe with a population of 9.1 million. It has a hemiboreal climate and is divided into six regions. Minsk is the capital and largest city. The country's population is declining, and it has a negative population growth rate and a negative natural growth rate. Belarus's economy is developing, and it has a very high human development ranking.

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) refers to the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialised economy. Belarus is not in Stage 1 of the DTM, as no countries in the world are currently categorised as such. Belarus has progressed to Stage 2 or higher.

Belarus's rural population has been declining since the 1950s

Belarus is currently in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). This stage is characterised by a low and stable population, with a low birth rate and a low death rate. However, Belarus's population has been declining since the beginning of the 1990s, mainly due to a decreasing birth rate and increasing emigration. This is particularly noticeable in the rural population, which has been declining since the 1950s.

Originally, Belarus was a highly agrarian country, with nearly 80% of its population living in rural areas. However, the country has been undergoing a process of continuous urbanisation, and in the 2000s, less than 30% of the population lived in rural areas. The rural population's share of the total population decreased from 70% in 1959 to less than 30% in the 2000s. This decline in the rural population is partly due to the overall decrease in the country's population.

The negative demographic trend in Belarus is mainly due to an ageing population, a common issue in the independent republics established after the collapse of the USSR. Additionally, the sudden impoverishment of a significant portion of the population in the early 1990s and insufficient social security discouraged people from starting or expanding their families. Another factor affecting the birth rate in Belarus is the fear of the consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster, which was widespread in the late 1980s. As a result, fewer people of reproductive age decided to have more than one child, leading to a change in the traditional family model.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the political crisis following the 2020 presidential election also contributed to the acceleration of negative demographic trends in Belarus. The government's failure to introduce restrictions and conceal the number of deaths due to the disease harmed the country. Additionally, the mass-scale repression targeting participants in demonstrations against election rigging forced many opponents of the regime to leave the country, mainly for Poland and Lithuania.

The Belarusian government has introduced several measures to prevent depopulation, including support for families and attempts to discourage skilled workers from emigrating. However, these attempts have been largely ineffective, and the country continues to face a declining population. According to the most pessimistic forecasts, the Belarusian population may shrink to just 4 million individuals by the end of the 21st century.

Belarus's rural population is ageing

Belarus is currently in the third stage of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). The DTM, developed by American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929, refers to the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialised economy.

The population of Belarus has been ageing, with a median age of 40.9 years in 2024. The country has an estimated total population of 9,056,696 people, of which 83.6% live in urban areas. This represents a significant shift from 1959, when nearly 80% of the population lived in rural areas. The rural population's share of the total population has decreased from 70% in 1959 to less than 30% in the 2000s. This urbanisation is a result of the country's continuous development and industrialisation.

The ageing population in Belarus is reflected in the age distribution of its rural citizens. In 2022, it was estimated that 17.66% of the rural population was aged 65 and over, with a higher proportion of females (355,163) than males (327,300). The median age for females in rural areas is 43.9 years. The rural population's fertility rate is also indicative of an ageing trend, with a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1, which is the average number of children per woman needed for each generation to exactly replace itself without requiring international immigration. A value below 2.1 will result in a native population decline, as there are fewer younger individuals to replace the older generations.

The ageing of Belarus's rural population has implications for various aspects of society, including the economy, healthcare, and social dynamics. It can impact the availability of labour, particularly in agricultural sectors, and influence the demand for healthcare services and social support. Additionally, the ageing population may lead to changes in rural communities' social structures and traditions, as the younger generations migrate to urban areas, leaving behind an older demographic.

Belarus's rural population is migrating to large cities

Belarus is not in any one stage of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). Instead, it is in a state of transition, with some parts of the country in different stages of the DTM.

The DTM was developed by American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929. It refers to the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialised economy.

Stage One of the DTM is the pre-industrial stage, characterised by high birth and death rates, a low and stable population, and minimal economic development. While no country is currently classified as Stage One, some parts of Belarus, particularly rural areas, display characteristics of this stage. For example, the rural population of Belarus has been declining since the 1950s due to a combination of natural population decline and migratory movement. This is in line with Stage One of the DTM, which is characterised by high infant mortality, short life expectancy, and a dependency on subsistence agriculture.

However, Belarus also displays characteristics of other stages of the DTM. For instance, the total population of Belarus is still growing, albeit slowly, which is indicative of Stage Two of the DTM. Additionally, the country has undergone significant social and economic advances, with rapid industrialisation and improvements in healthcare and sanitation. These developments are more characteristic of Stage Three of the DTM.

The migration of Belarus' rural population to large cities can be understood in the context of the country's overall demographic transition. As Belarus moves away from Stage One of the DTM, the rural population is declining due to a combination of natural population decrease and migratory movement. This is causing a shift in the country's geo-demographic space, with the population increasingly concentrating in large cities.

The migration of Belarus' rural population to large cities has had significant impacts on the country's demographic dynamics and spatial distribution. The capital, Minsk, has become an active and potential area of demographic growth due to both migration and natural factors. Other large cities, such as Brest, Gomel, and Minsk, have also attracted rural migrants. This has led to a structural castling between the ratio of urban and rural populations, with the share of the rural population decreasing while the share of the urban population increases.

In conclusion, while Belarus is not in any one stage of the DTM, it is undergoing a complex demographic transition. The migration of the rural population to large cities is a significant aspect of this transition, contributing to the country's evolving geo-demographic landscape.

Belarus's rural population is declining due to natural decrease

Belarus is currently in the third stage of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). The DTM depicts the demographic history of a country and was developed by the American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929. It consists of five stages, with the first stage being the pre-industrial stage, and the final stage being the declining population stage.

Belarus has been undergoing a process of continuous urbanization, with the rural population's share of the total population decreasing from 70% in 1959 to less than 30% in the 2000s. This decline in the rural population is due to a natural decrease, which is the excess of deaths over births. Since the beginning of the 1990s, Belarus has seen a steady decline in its population due to a declining birth rate and increasing emigration. The country's population shrank by approximately 1 million individuals to 9.2 million by January 1, 2023. The downward trend halted temporarily between 2014 and 2017, when a slight increase in the birth rate was recorded, and more immigrants arrived, mainly from other former Soviet republics. However, these developments were not enough to reverse the overall negative demographic trend.

The negative demographic trend in Belarus is mainly due to an aging population, a common feature among the independent republics established after the collapse of the USSR. Additionally, the sudden impoverishment of a significant portion of the population in the early 1990s and insufficient social security discouraged people from starting or expanding their families. Another factor negatively affecting the birth rate is the fear of the consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster, which was widespread in the late 1980s. As a result, fewer people of reproductive age decided to have more than one child, leading to a change in the family model.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the political crisis following the 2020 presidential election further accelerated the country's population decline. Official statistics indicate that on January 1, 2021, Belarus had 9.35 million residents, a decrease of up to 60,000 individuals over a year, with the pace of population decline tripling compared to 2019. The largest outflow of professionals was recorded in the IT sector, with more than 20,000 programmers estimated to have left the country since 2020. The government has introduced several measures to prevent depopulation, including supporting Belarusian families and discouraging skilled workers from emigrating. However, these attempts have not been successful in increasing the birth rate or slowing down the negative trends.

Belarus's rural population is declining due to emigration

Belarus is currently in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). This stage is characterised by a sharp decline in death rates due to improvements in healthcare and sanitation, while birth rates remain high. As a result, the total population grows rapidly.

Since the 1990s, Belarus has experienced a steady decline in its population, falling by approximately 1 million people to 9.2 million as of January 1, 2023. This decline is attributed to a combination of decreasing birth rates and increasing emigration. While official statistics may not present a comprehensive picture, reports suggest that up to 200,000 Belarusians may have emigrated since 2020 for political and economic reasons.

The rural population of Belarus has been declining as the country undergoes continuous urbanisation. The share of the rural population in the total population decreased from 70% in 1959 to less than 30% in the 2000s. This shift is part of the country's transition from a highly agrarian society to an increasingly urbanised one.

The decline in Belarus's rural population is influenced by various factors, including the country's political and economic situation. The violent repression following the 2020 presidential election and the subsequent acceleration of the depopulation process led to politically-driven emigration, particularly among the country's highest-skilled citizens, social activists, and specialists, including those in the IT sector. Additionally, declining living standards and insufficient career opportunities have prompted another group of emigrants to leave the country.

The COVID-19 pandemic also played a role in the increase in emigration from Belarus. The government's failure to implement major restrictions and its concealment of COVID-19-related deaths further harmed the country. The true magnitude of pandemic-related deaths and post-election emigration remains undisclosed, but official statistics do reflect these developments to some extent.

In summary, the declining rural population in Belarus is influenced by both internal and external factors. Internally, the country's political and economic situation, including repressive measures and declining living standards, drives emigration. Externally, the COVID-19 pandemic and its handling by the government have contributed to the emigration trend. As a result, the rural population of Belarus continues to decline, impacting the country's overall demographic situation and economic development.

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