Where Are The Post-Soviet Nukes Now?

Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan have all historically possessed nuclear weapons. Ukraine became the third-largest nuclear power in the world after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, with 1,900 Soviet strategic nuclear warheads and between 2,650 and 4,200 Soviet tactical nuclear weapons on its territory. Belarus and Kazakhstan also inherited nuclear weapons infrastructure from the former Soviet Union. All three countries have since given up their nuclear weapons. Ukraine transferred all Soviet-era strategic warheads to Russia by 1996. Belarus removed all nuclear weapons from its territory by 1996. Kazakhstan, once the fourth-largest nuclear power in the world, transferred its Soviet-era nuclear weapons to the Russian Federation by April 1995. However, in 2024, Russia moved tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus, marking one of the westernmost deployment points of its atomic arsenal.

Ukraine's nuclear options after Zelensky's comments on NATO and nuclear deterrents

Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan are all former Soviet republics that inherited nuclear weapons upon the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. However, they have since given up their nuclear arsenals.

Ukraine's Nuclear Options

In October 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine's survival could only be ensured by either joining NATO or acquiring nuclear weapons. He recalled that Ukraine had agreed to give up its nuclear arsenal in 1994 in exchange for security assurances from Russia, the US, and the UK under the Budapest Memorandum. However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 violated this agreement.

Zelenskyy's comments on nuclear weapons were met with criticism from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who called them a "dangerous provocation." Despite Zelenskyy's ultimatum, he later clarified that Ukraine was not building nuclear weapons and that NATO membership was the preferred option for ensuring the country's security.

Ukraine's path to NATO membership has been affirmed by the alliance, with NATO's Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, stating that Ukraine's future is in NATO and that the path to membership is "irreversible." However, the official invitation to join NATO requires the approval of all current members, and some members, such as Slovakia and Hungary, have expressed opposition or hesitation.

Belarus and Kazakhstan's Nuclear Disarmament

Belarus and Kazakhstan, like Ukraine, were former Soviet republics that gave up their nuclear weapons inherited from the Soviet Union. Belarus transferred all its Soviet-era tactical warheads to Russia by 1993 and strategic warheads by 1996. In 2010, Belarus planned to eliminate its remaining stocks of highly enriched uranium (HEU) with US assistance, but this agreement was suspended after the US announced sanctions against Belarus in 2011.

Kazakhstan, which had 1,400 Soviet-era nuclear weapons on its territory, transferred them all to Russia by 1995. The country has since actively engaged in nuclear disarmament initiatives and supported international efforts toward a nuclear-weapon-free world.

Kazakhstan's nuclear disarmament and cooperation with the US

Kazakhstan was once a nuclear power, hosting 1,410 Soviet strategic nuclear warheads and an undisclosed number of tactical nuclear weapons. It was also a primary venue for Soviet nuclear weapon testing from 1949 until 1989, with at least 460 nuclear tests taking place at the Semipalatinsk test site.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan became the fourth-largest nuclear power in the world. However, due to concerns over the spread of cancer among the local population from nuclear testing, Kazakhstan declared its independence from the Soviet Union on December 16, 1991, and engaged in rapid denuclearization with help from the United States.

The United States played a significant role in assisting Kazakhstan in removing nuclear warheads, weapons-grade materials, and their supporting infrastructure. In 1994, Kazakhstan transferred more than half a ton of weapons-grade uranium to the United States. By April 1995, Kazakhstan had removed its last nuclear warheads and, with U.S. assistance, sealed 181 nuclear test tunnels at the Semipalatinsk test site. The U.S. and Kazakhstan also worked together to seal an additional 40 nuclear test tunnels and convert two of Kazakhstan's three research reactors to use low-enriched uranium fuel.

The U.S. and Kazakhstan have also cooperated through the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, which aims to reduce weapons of mass destruction and related infrastructure. As part of this program, the U.S. assisted Kazakhstan in removing highly enriched uranium from the Ulba Metallurgical Plant and paid $25 million for the transfer.

In addition to its cooperation with the U.S., Kazakhstan has taken a leading role in promoting nuclear non-proliferation. It was the first country to ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and has initiated a UN General Assembly resolution calling for an International Day Against Nuclear Tests. Kazakhstan has also signed and ratified several other treaties related to nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, and the Central Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone.

Belarus' nuclear disarmament and current nuclear weapons situation

Belarus has never possessed nuclear weapons in its own right, but as a former Soviet republic, it once hosted Soviet nuclear weapons on its territory. In the 1990s, Belarus transferred its Soviet-era tactical warheads to the Russian Federation, completing the transfer of strategic warheads in November 1996. This move was part of its commitment to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which it signed in July 1993, becoming the first country to voluntarily denounce the possibility of possessing nuclear weapons inherited from the former Soviet Union.

In 2010, Belarus announced its intention to eliminate its remaining stocks of highly enriched uranium (HEU) with US assistance. However, this agreement was suspended after the US imposed sanctions on Belarus in 2011. As of 2024, approximately 100 kilograms of HEU remain in Belarus, and talks on renewing the agreement are at an impasse.

In 2023, Russia reportedly deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, raising concerns about a breach of Belarus' obligations as a non-nuclear-weapon state under the NPT. Belarusian military officials have stated that these weapons are for strategic deterrence and that while Russia controls the nuclear warheads, Belarus controls the means of their delivery.

Belarus has a consistent policy in the sphere of nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation, and export control. It has ratified several treaties related to these issues, including the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). It has also supported UN Security Council resolutions aimed at curbing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Ukraine's nuclear non-proliferation and commitment to the NPT

Ukraine's nuclear non-proliferation and commitment to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) have been a significant aspect of its foreign policy and international relations.

In the early 1990s, Ukraine inherited a substantial nuclear arsenal from the Soviet Union, comprising approximately 1,240 nuclear warheads, 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles, 44 strategic bombers, and nearly 3,000 tactical nuclear weapons. Despite possessing the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal, Ukraine made a pivotal decision to denuclearize and join the NPT as a non-nuclear-weapon state in December 1994. This decision was influenced by several factors, including the desire to distance itself from Moscow's control, the legacy of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, and the aspiration to gain international recognition and diplomatic support for its fledgling statehood.

Ukraine's commitment to the NPT and nuclear non-proliferation is evident in its subsequent actions. It actively engaged with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and participated in the Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START) as a "successor state" to the Soviet Union. Despite facing challenges and complexities in the negotiation process, Ukraine remained steadfast in its commitment to denuclearization. By the mid-1990s, it had transferred all tactical and strategic nuclear weapons to Russia and acceded to the NPT, marking a significant milestone in its non-proliferation efforts.

Ukraine's decision to renounce nuclear weapons and adhere to the NPT has been hailed as a significant contribution to the cause of nuclear non-proliferation. It set a precedent and served as an example for other countries contemplating their nuclear options. However, Ukraine's trust in the NPT and the security assurances it received upon joining was shaken by Russia's invasion in 2014 and the subsequent annexation of Crimea. This breach of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity raised questions about the effectiveness of the NPT and the reliability of the security guarantees provided.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine has continued to uphold its commitment to the NPT and nuclear non-proliferation. It actively participates in international efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation and works closely with organizations like the IAEA. Ukraine's stance on nuclear non-proliferation remains firm, even in the face of ongoing conflicts and threats to its security.

Belarus' nuclear weapons transfer to Russia

Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine were former Soviet republics that possessed nuclear weapons during the Cold War. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, these countries became independent and worked to transfer their nuclear weapons to Russia.

Belarus began transferring its nuclear weapons to Russia in May 1993, and the process was completed by November 1996. The transfer of Belarus's nuclear weapons to Russia was part of a broader effort to reduce the number of nuclear weapons in the former Soviet Union.

In 2023, Russia and Belarus signed an agreement to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. This move was seen as a warning to the West and an attempt to increase pressure on NATO's eastern flank. However, it's important to note that Belarus does not have control over the Russian nuclear weapons on its soil. The deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus has raised concerns among Western leaders and led to discussions about strengthening NATO's nuclear and conventional deterrence capabilities.

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