Wagner Group's Belarus Deployment: What's The Plan?

Fighters from the Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military company, have arrived in Belarus from Russia. Wagner's move to Belarus was part of a deal that ended the group's mutiny attempt in June 2023, when they took control of a Russian military headquarters and marched on Moscow, threatening to tip Russia into civil war. The deal, brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, allowed Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin to move to Belarus in exchange for ordering his mercenaries back to the camps. While the number of Wagner fighters in Belarus is unclear, Poland's deputy minister coordinator of special services, Stanislaw Zaryn, said there may be several hundred. Lukashenko has stated that Wagner fighters will remain in Belarus, and they have been spotted instructing Belarusian soldiers at a military range near the town of Osipovichi.

Wagner Group's presence in Belarus is part of a deal to end their mutiny attempt in June 2023

On June 23, 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the former head of the Wagner Group, led an armed mutiny against the Russian military leadership. Wagner mercenaries quickly swept through the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and captured the military headquarters. They then headed toward Moscow, with Prigozhin calling it a "march of justice" to oust the Russian Defence Minister and General Staff Chief.

The mutiny posed the biggest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin during his time in power. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal that ended the rebellion. In exchange for criminal charges against him being dropped, Prigozhin halted his uprising and went into exile in Belarus. The deal also allowed Prigozhin's mercenaries to remain in Belarus, where they have been training Belarusian soldiers.

Lukashenko has said that Minsk could benefit from the mercenaries' combat experience. However, critics argue that their presence has caused massive social tension and drawn pushback from the armed forces. Belarusian opposition leaders have expressed concern that Lukashenko could use the Wagner Group as a "scare tactic" in elections.

The Wagner Group's presence in Belarus is part of a broader pattern of the group's activities. It has supported Russian interests in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, and several countries in Africa. The group has been accused of war crimes, including murder, torture, and robbery of civilians.

Wagner fighters are training Belarusian soldiers at a military range near Osipovichi

Fighters from the Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military company, have arrived in Belarus from Russia. This development comes as part of a deal that ended the group's mutiny attempt in June 2023, when they took control of a Russian military headquarters and marched on Moscow, threatening to tip Russia into civil war.

Wagner fighters have been training Belarusian soldiers at a military range near the town of Osipovichi, which is located about 90-230 kilometres north of the Ukrainian border. The Belarusian Defence Ministry released a video on July 14, 2023, showing what it said were Wagner fighters instructing the Belarusian army.

The presence of Wagner in Belarus is part of an agreement that ended the group's mutiny. Under this deal, brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Wagner's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, stood down his mercenaries and was allowed to move to Belarus in exchange for Russia dropping mutiny charges.

Wagner is considered one of the world's most ruthless armed groups, known for committing war crimes and plundering natural resources across Africa. The group has been accused of torture, murder, rape, and robbery of civilians, as well as the torture and killing of accused deserters.

The arrival of Wagner in Belarus has raised concerns among Ukraine and Poland, who are strengthening their borders in response. Ukraine's Centre for National Resistance reported that about 240 Wagner fighters, along with 40 trucks and a large amount of weapons, had entered the Osipovichi area.

The Belarusian Defence Ministry stated that it had developed a "road map" with Wagner's management for joint training exercises between the nation's military personnel and the private mercenaries. This collaboration underscores the close relationship between Belarus and Russia, with Lukashenko previously allowing the Kremlin to use Belarusian territory for the invasion of Ukraine and the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons.

Belarus's ruler, Alexander Lukashenko, helped negotiate the deal between Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Kremlin

The Wagner Group is a Russian state-funded private military company controlled by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former close ally of Russia's president, Vladimir Putin. The group has been involved in various conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, where it has recruited Russian prison inmates for frontline combat.

In June 2023, Prigozhin led the Wagner Group in an armed rebellion against Russia after accusing the Defense Ministry of shelling Wagner soldiers. Wagner units seized the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, while a Wagner convoy headed towards Moscow. The mutiny was halted when an agreement was reached, allowing the Wagner mutineers to choose between signing contracts with the Defense Ministry or withdrawing to Belarus. This deal was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who is the first President of the Republic of Belarus. Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and has maintained a close relationship with Russia, particularly in terms of economic and military cooperation.

Lukashenko's role in negotiating the deal between Prigozhin and the Kremlin demonstrates his influence in the region and his willingness to support Russia's interests. By allowing the Wagner Group to withdraw to Belarus, Lukashenko provided a safe haven for the mercenary group and potentially strengthened his ties with Prigozhin and Putin. This move aligns with Lukashenko's pro-Russian stance and his efforts to maintain strong relations with Russia.

The details of the negotiations between Prigozhin and the Kremlin are not publicly known, but it is likely that Lukashenko played a crucial role in facilitating the agreement and ensuring a peaceful resolution to the crisis. Lukashenko's involvement also underscores the complex dynamics between Belarus and Russia, as they navigate their respective interests in the region.

The presence of the Wagner Group in Belarus highlights the ongoing collaboration between the two countries and the potential for further cooperation in military and security matters. The group's activities in Belarus and its role in the region will continue to be a subject of interest and scrutiny.

The future of Wagner in Belarus is uncertain, with no sign of Prigozhin or his units at the assembled camp

However, there has been no sign of Prigozhin or his units at the camp assembled in Belarus, which is capable of accommodating up to 5,000 soldiers. The Belarusian authorities' inability to protect Prigozhin, combined with Prigozhin's own history of betraying his patron, casts doubt on the likelihood of him moving to Belarus. Furthermore, it is unclear what the mercenary army would do in Belarus. While Lukashenko suggested that Wagner fighters could serve as instructors for the Belarusian army, the relatively small Belarusian military does not need thousands or even hundreds of instructors. Another possibility is that Minsk could hire Prigozhin's mercenaries to work in African countries where Wagner also has a presence, but the high wages of the mercenaries make this option costly for Minsk.

The reality may be more straightforward: Prigozhin mentioned that Lukashenko had offered him a way to operate "under a legal jurisdiction", suggesting that Wagner might register as a private military company in Belarus. In this case, the actual troops would be safely dispersed across a number of countries, while the "Wagner camp" in Belarus would remain empty. This option may be more palatable to Lukashenko, who differs from Putin in terms of his commitment to the state monopoly on violence and has not allowed any alternative centre of armed power to emerge in the country.

The hollowness of Belarusian security guarantees, combined with likely intrusive control from Lukashenko's security forces and dubious employment prospects, could seriously reduce the number of "Wagnerites" willing to move to Belarus or stay there long-term.

Wagner fighters will remain in Belarus, according to President Lukashenko

Wagner Group fighters have arrived in Belarus from Russia, marking a new chapter in the group's existence after its failed rebellion against the Russian government in June 2023. The Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military company, has been implicated in various conflicts, including the war in Donbas, the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and civil wars in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, and Mali.

The arrival of Wagner fighters in Belarus is part of a deal that ended the group's mutiny attempt in June. This agreement, brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, allowed the Wagner Group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to move to Belarus in exchange for ordering his mercenaries back to their camps. Lukashenko stated that Belarus could benefit from the Wagner Group's experience and expertise in military matters.

However, the presence of Wagner fighters in Belarus has raised concerns among the Belarusian opposition and guerrilla activists, who view them as a threat to the country's independence and sovereignty. Aliaksandr Azarau, leader of the BYPOL guerrilla group, vowed to prepare a "warm welcome" for the Wagnerites, indicating potential acts of resistance and sabotage.

The deal between Lukashenko and Prigozhin has also caused unease among neighboring Baltic countries, with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania urging the European Union to label the Wagner Group as a terrorist organization. These countries have also pledged to enhance border security in response to the Wagner Group's presence in Belarus.

While the exact number of Wagner fighters in Belarus is unknown, Ukrainian and Polish officials reported observing the movement of "separate groups" and a large convoy of vehicles. The Belarusian Defense Ministry confirmed the presence of Wagner fighters, releasing a video of them instructing Belarusian soldiers at a military range near Osipovichi.

The Wagner Group's relocation to Belarus underscores the complex dynamics in the region and the ongoing tensions between various factions. The future activities and impact of the Wagner Group in Belarus remain to be seen, but their presence has already caused significant concern among opposition groups and neighboring countries.

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