Belarus' Military Involvement In Ukraine: What We Know So Far

In February 2022, Belarus was accused of preparing to send its troops into Ukraine to support Russia's invasion. This came after the country was used as a launchpad for the Russian invasion and allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory. However, the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, denied these claims and asserted that the Belarusian Armed Forces would not participate directly in the conflict. Lukashenko also stated that he would not send soldiers into Ukraine unless attacked first. Despite these assurances, there have been reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine fighting alongside Russians, and Belarus has faced condemnation from Western countries for its involvement in the conflict.

Belarus denies plans to join the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but is rotating troops at the border

Belarus has denied plans to join the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the country's Chief of General Staff, Viktor Gulevich, announced that it would be sending five battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to its border on rotation to replace existing troops. This statement came after a top Ukrainian security official warned Belarus not to send troops to Ukraine, stating that Ukraine had shown restraint towards Belarus, despite the country being used as a launchpad for Russian planes.

Gulevich emphasised that the transfer of troops was not connected to any preparation for war, nor was it indicative of the participation of Belarusian soldiers in the Russian military operation in Ukraine. He stated:

> I want to underline that the transfer of troops is in no way connected with (any) preparation, and especially not with the participation of Belarusian soldiers in the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine.

However, Ukraine's military has accused Russian aircraft of firing at Belarusian border villages from Ukrainian airspace, in an attempt to provide an excuse for an offensive. Ukraine's Air Force Command stated:

> This is a PROVOCATION! The goal is to involve the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the war with Ukraine!

In the early days of the invasion, Belarus was involved in peace initiatives, holding Russo-Ukrainian talks on its border. Despite some preliminary agreements, the talks did not result in a lasting ceasefire.

Before the start of the offensive, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory. However, Russian troops did not leave as scheduled and Belarus allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, providing the shortest land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. While these forces withdrew within two months, and Belarus has denied sending its own troops to fight in Ukraine, the situation along the border remains tense.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko says he's completely ready to deploy Russian nukes if provoked

In an interview with the BBC, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said he was “completely ready” to deploy Russian nuclear weapons housed in his country if provoked. Lukashenko, a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has been accused of stealing elections, crushing dissent, and dismantling democracy in Belarus. The UK, the EU, and the US do not recognize him as the legitimate president of the country.

Lukashenko's comments come as tensions rise between Belarus and the West. In February 2022, Belarus was used as a staging post by Russian forces, who gathered there under the pretext of joint military exercises before launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since then, there has been increasing evidence that Belarus is moving towards becoming an explicit participant in the war. In March 2022, Belarus revoked its non-nuclear status, allowing Russian nuclear weapons to be placed on its territory. This move provoked rare protests in the country, with about 800 people arrested.

Lukashenko has denied that he gave permission for Belarusian territory to be used in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, stating that Putin has the right to move his troops however he likes. However, he has also said that he is “completely ready” to use Russian nuclear weapons if necessary, but only if a foreign soldier steps into Belarus. He added that Belarus has no plans to attack anyone.

The Belarusian leader has also dismissed reports of North Korea sending soldiers to fight alongside Russian forces, stating that it would be a step towards the escalation of the conflict if any country's armed forces, including Belarus's, were on the contact line. Lukashenko's comments contradict earlier statements by Putin, who said that Russian nuclear weapons deployed to Belarus would remain under Moscow's exclusive control. Despite this, Lukashenko insisted that Putin would never use the weapons without his consent.

Lukashenko says North Korean troops in Ukraine would escalate the conflict

In an interview with the BBC, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko commented on the possibility of North Korean troops being deployed to support Russia's offensive in Ukraine. Lukashenko dismissed the reports as "rubbish", stating that Putin would never try to persuade another country to involve its army in Russia's "special operation" in Ukraine.

However, he acknowledged that the presence of foreign troops, including those from Belarus, on the contact line in Ukraine would be a step towards escalating the conflict. Lukashenko argued that such involvement would prompt Ukraine's allies to deploy NATO troops to Ukraine.

Lukashenko's statement reflects his close relationship with Putin and his support for Russia's war in Ukraine. Belarus has been used as a staging post by Russian forces and allowed the stationing of section sign russian nuclear weapons on its territory. Despite this, Lukashenko denied giving permission for Belarusian territory to be used in the invasion and asserted that he had not been asked to provide Belarusian troops for the war.

Lukashenko's comments come amidst concerns about Belarus potentially joining the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In March 2022, Ukraine warned that Russia was attempting to draw Belarus into the conflict by firing on Belarusian border villages from Ukrainian airspace. Belarus denied these plans, stating that the movement of troops to the border was a routine rotation.

Belarus revokes its non-nuclear status, allowing Russian weapons to be placed in the country

On 27 February 2022, Belarus held a referendum to revoke its non-nuclear status, paving the way for Russian nuclear weapons to be placed in the country. This referendum was passed with 65% of the vote, allowing Russia to station nuclear weapons in Belarus for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union.

This move has been interpreted as Belarus further aligning itself with Russia in the latter's invasion of Ukraine. Belarus has already been used as a launchpad for Russian forces, with the country sharing a 1,084km-long border with Ukraine, including a short route to the capital Kyiv. Russian troops had gathered in Belarus under the pretext of joint military exercises before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has stated that he would only send soldiers into Ukraine if Belarus were attacked first. However, there have been reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine fighting alongside Russians, and Lukashenko has extended his executive powers. Lukashenko has also stated that he would request nuclear weapons from Russia if NATO moved nuclear weapons to Poland or Lithuania, Belarus's western neighbours.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been condemned by Western countries, with the EU, US, UK, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. Protests against the referendum and the invasion have also taken place in Belarus, with about 800 people arrested.

Belarus has been used as a launchpad for Russian planes to attack Ukraine

On 24 February 2022, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief reported that four ballistic missiles were launched from Belarus towards southwestern Ukraine. Two days later, satellite images revealed 150 helicopters and hundreds of ground vehicles stationed near Khoyniki, just 50 km from the Ukrainian border, with 90 helicopters using a local straight road as a temporary airbase. Belarusian media and Telegram channels also circulated videos and photos showing the movement of Russian armoured vehicles and helicopters in southern Belarus.

On 8 March, satellite images showed three missile launchers in a field near Kalinkavichy in southeastern Belarus, and new planes and Mi-26 heavy helicopters at the Baranavichy airbase. On 10 March, two Belarusian truck drivers were killed in Korosten in northern Ukraine during an aerial bombardment, with the planes presumably based in Belarus.

On 11 March, Ukrainian officials accused Russia of conducting airstrikes on Belarusian settlements from Ukrainian airspace, in an attempt to force Belarus more directly into the conflict. NATO intelligence indicated that Russian jets had taken off from Belarus and entered Ukraine from Belarusian airspace. This was described as Belarus being used as a springboard for air attacks into northern Ukraine.

On 10 March, Ukraine's top security official, Oleksiy Danilov, said that Ukraine had shown restraint towards Belarus, despite it being used as a launchpad for Russian attacks. However, he warned that if "one fighter crosses our border, we will fight back."

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