Belarus-Ukraine Conflict: War Allies Or Enemies?

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory, and for missile launchers to be stationed on its land. Belarus also allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. This involvement has been condemned by Western countries, with the EU, US, UK, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions against Belarus. While Belarus has not sent its own soldiers into Ukraine, there have been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians. In 2024, Belarus announced the transfer of troops and weapons to areas bordering Ukraine, prompting Ukraine to request that Belarus withdraw the amassed forces from the border.

Belarus's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Belarus has supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, although it has not taken part directly in the conflict. In the lead-up to the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform weeks-long military drills on its territory, and Russian troops did not exit the country as scheduled when the drills ended. Belarus also allowed Russia to launch missile strikes on Ukraine from its territory and to use Belarus as a launchpad for air raids and missile strikes on Ukrainian targets.

In the early days of the invasion, Belarus was involved in peace initiatives, holding Russo-Ukrainian talks on its border. However, these talks did not result in a lasting ceasefire. Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets. There have been reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine fighting alongside Russians, but these have been dismissed by the Belarusian leader, Aleksander Lukashenko, who has said that the Belarusian Armed Forces would not participate directly in the conflict. Lukashenko has also stated that there would be no way he would send soldiers into Ukraine unless attacked first.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been condemned by Western countries, including the US, the UK, the EU, Canada, and Japan, which have imposed sanctions. According to polls, Belarus's participation in the military conflict is unpopular among the general population, with a large majority opposed to any role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Despite the lack of popular support for Belarusian involvement, there have been no mass protests in the country, largely due to the oppressive apparatus of the Lukashenko regime. However, Belarusians have found other ways to express their discontent, such as through ballot box protests and by joining a Belarusian regiment fighting alongside Ukraine's armed forces.

The impact on Belarus-Ukraine relations

The impact of the war on Belarus-Ukraine relations has been significant, with severe deterioration in economic, political, and security domains. Ukraine has divested from strategically important Belarusian imports, particularly petroleum products, leading to a collapse in economic cooperation. Political relations have also reached their lowest point in history, with minimal communication and significant diplomatic withdrawals, including the recall of ambassadors and reduction of embassy staff.

Ukraine still maintains diplomatic relations with Belarus for several reasons. Firstly, the channel in Minsk is used to exchange notes and transmit legal and consular documents between Moscow and Kyiv. Secondly, Belarus is one of the few routes through which Ukrainians from occupied territories can reach Ukrainian-controlled territories. Thirdly, the presence of Ukrainian diplomats in Belarus signals to Minsk that Kyiv will not resort to military force against them.

However, the lack of trust and formal diplomatic engagement has resulted in communication being conducted primarily through intelligence services or other closed channels. Ukraine aims to influence the Belarusian political leadership and mitigate the security threats posed by the regime.

The European Union (EU) and the United States have imposed restrictive measures and sanctions on Belarus due to its involvement in the war and support for Russia. These measures target various sectors of the Belarusian economy, including dual-use goods, maritime navigation technologies, luxury goods, gold, diamonds, helium, coal, mineral products, and crude oil. The EU has also prohibited the provision of specific services to Belarus, such as accounting, auditing, legal advisory, advertising, and market research.

In contrast, Belarus has allowed Russia to use its territory for military operations, including the stationing of troops and missile launchers. Belarus has also participated in Russia's psychological and informational operations before new phases of the conflict. There are ongoing concerns that Belarus will become more directly involved in the war, despite assurances from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that he will not involve his nation's armed forces.

The war has also impacted public opinion and opposition in Belarus. According to a survey, 79% of Belarusians find the death of Belarusian soldiers in the conflict unacceptable, and more than 50% support remaining neutral. Belarusian exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has condemned Lukashenko for participating in the invasion and expressed her belief that Ukraine will win the war. There have been anti-war protests and acts of sabotage in Belarus, with activists disrupting the work of the Belarusian Railway, which transports Russian military trains.

The role of Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine's Armed Forces

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, many Belarusians have volunteered to fight for Ukraine, defying their Russia-backed government. These volunteers make up one of the largest contingents of foreign nationals fighting for Ukraine, and their presence is helping to shape the battlefield.

Belarusians have been part of the Ukrainian struggle against Russian aggression since 2014, when dozens joined the volunteer battalions that emerged in response to Russia's seizure of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine. When Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Belarusians responded by forming their own battalion, which has since expanded into a regiment. This battalion was named after Kastus Kalinouski, a nineteenth-century Belarusian national hero who led an uprising against imperial Russia. The regiment now has its own recruitment and training structures and has acquired a considerable arsenal of military equipment.

In addition to the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, other Belarusian units include the Belarusian Volunteer Corps, which includes the Terror Battalion. There are also around 20 Belarusians fighting in the Second International Legion. In total, there are believed to be around 450 Belarusians fighting for Ukraine, with some sources claiming the number is as high as 5,000.

The presence of so many Belarusians fighting alongside the Ukrainian military has long been a source of concern for Belarus's pro-Kremlin dictator, Alyaksandr Lukashenka. He is well aware that many Belarusian volunteers regard victory in Ukraine as a stepping stone toward the overthrow of the current pro-Russian authorities in Minsk. As such, volunteer fighters face criminal prosecution if caught inside Belarus, and some family members have reportedly been detained by the Belarusian authorities.

Despite the risks, Belarusian volunteers continue to play a significant role in Ukraine's armed struggle against Russian imperialism, and their efforts have helped to deter the Lukashenka regime and mitigate the security threats posed by it.

The EU's restrictive measures on Belarus

The EU has imposed a series of restrictive measures against Belarus in response to its involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These measures include:

Individual and Economic Sanctions

The EU has imposed sanctions on 22 high-ranking Belarusian military personnel, who played a role in the decision-making and strategic planning that led to Belarus's involvement in the Russian aggression against Ukraine. These sanctions include a travel ban and an asset freeze, preventing those listed from entering or transiting through EU territories and freezing their funds and economic resources.

Restrictions on Trade

The EU has restricted trade with Belarus by prohibiting the sale, supply, transfer, or export of firearms, ammunition, and other arms to the country. It has also banned the export of dual-use goods and technologies, as well as goods and technologies that could contribute to Belarus's military, technological, defence, and security development. Additionally, the EU has prohibited the import of gold, diamonds, helium, coal, and mineral products, including crude oil, from Belarus.

SWIFT Ban and Financial Restrictions

The EU has imposed a SWIFT ban on five Belarusian banks and prohibited transactions with the Central Bank of Belarus. It has also limited financial inflows from Belarus to the EU and prohibited the provision of euro-denominated banknotes to the country.

Prohibitions on Transport and Services

The EU has prohibited the transport of goods by road within its territory using trailers and semi-trailers registered in Belarus. It has also prohibited the provision of certain services to Belarus, including accounting, auditing, consulting, advertising, market research, and legal advisory services.

Protection of EU Operators

The package of restrictive measures also includes provisions to allow EU operators to claim compensation for damages caused by Belarusian individuals and companies due to sanctions implementation and expropriation.

Ukraine's stance on Belarus

Historical Context and Relations:

Ukraine and Belarus share a long history and cultural ties, with both countries gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Prior to that, they had been part of the Belarusian Democratic Republic and the Ukrainian People's Republic, which later became the Byelorussian and Ukrainian SSRs before unifying with Soviet Russia to form the Soviet Union. This shared history has created a sense of brotherhood between the two nations, and Ukraine has maintained diplomatic relations with Belarus despite the ongoing conflict.

Economic and Political Factors:

Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine's foreign policy towards Belarus aimed to leverage trade to prevent Russian encroachment on Belarusian sovereignty. Ukraine served as a crucial market for Belarusian petroleum products and electricity exports. However, once Belarus became a bridgehead for Russia's invasion, Ukraine divested from strategically important Belarusian imports, particularly petroleum products. This led to a severe decline in bilateral trade, affecting economic cooperation between the two countries.

Military Cooperation with Russia:

Belarus has supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine and allowed Russian armed forces to conduct military drills on its territory. It also provided Russia with access to military airbases and installations to launch attacks on Ukraine. Belarus's proximity to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, has been strategically valuable for Russia. Despite assurances from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that he would not involve his country's armed forces in the conflict, there have been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Response to Belarus's Actions:

Ukraine has responded to Belarus's involvement in the conflict by reducing diplomatic engagement, recalling ambassadors, and imposing economic sanctions. Ukraine has also closed border checkpoints leading into Belarus, except in special cases. Additionally, Ukraine has expressed concern about Belarus's decision to revoke its neutral and non-nuclear status, particularly the potential stationing of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil. Ukraine sees this as a threat to its security and has called on Belarus to withdraw amassed forces from their shared border.

Belarusian Opposition to the Invasion:

It is important to note that not all Belarusians support their country's involvement in the conflict. There have been anti-war protests and acts of sabotage within Belarus, and many Belarusian citizens have joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces to fight against Russia. Belarusian opposition leaders, such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, have condemned Lukashenko's participation in the invasion and expressed solidarity with Ukraine.

In summary, Ukraine's stance on Belarus is shaped by a complex mix of historical, economic, and security considerations. While Ukraine maintains diplomatic relations and seeks to influence the Belarusian political leadership, it has also taken steps to mitigate security threats and respond to Belarus's support for Russia in the conflict.

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