The Belarus Conundrum: What's Happening?

Belarus is a nation of 9.5 million people, wedged between Russia to the east and Ukraine to the south, with Latvia, Lithuania and Poland to the north and west. Since 1994, it has been ruled by Alexander Lukashenko, often described as Europe's last dictator. In 2020, Lukashenko's disputed re-election sparked mass protests, with more than 100,000 people packing central Minsk, the capital, for four consecutive Sundays. In response, Lukashenko cracked down on the opposition, with human rights observers presently identifying around 1,300 political prisoners in Belarusian detention centres. In the last year, Lukashenko's administration has ramped up pressure on Belarusians living abroad who are critical of the government, launching criminal cases against them and issuing extradition requests.

The 2020 election and subsequent protests

The 2020 election in Belarus, which resulted in the re-election of Alexander Lukashenko, sparked unprecedented mass protests. Lukashenko, who first took office in 1994, has been described as Europe's "last dictator". He has tried to preserve elements of Soviet communism, with much of manufacturing remaining under state control and the powerful secret police retaining the name KGB.

The 2020 election was widely believed to have been rigged in Lukashenko's favour. The official results showed that Lukashenko won with 80% of the vote, but the main opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, insisted that where votes had been properly counted, she had polled 60-70%.

On the night of the election, violent clashes led to 3,000 arrests in Minsk and other cities. Police fired tear gas, rubber bullets and stun grenades to disperse crowds. Further nights of violence saw thousands more arrested across the country.

Tikhanovskaya tried to complain to election authorities about the alleged falsification of the results but was detained for seven hours and then forced to leave for Lithuania, where she had previously sent her children. In an emotional video address, she said she was leaving for the sake of her children. She later launched a Coordination Council to negotiate a transfer of power, and in a video address from Lithuania, said she was ready to lead Belarus pending new fair elections.

Lukashenko refused to negotiate with the council, and its members were detained and questioned. On 19 August, prosecutors launched a criminal case against the council, accusing the opposition of plotting to seize power.

The post-election clashes saw numerous allegations of police brutality, with detainees reporting that they had been badly beaten and forced to endure overcrowded jails. This sparked a new wave of demonstrations, with friends and relatives of detainees gathering at detention centres demanding information about their loved ones. Women dressed in white and carrying roses also marched through the streets.

At major state-owned enterprises around the country, workers went on strike and joined the protests. Lukashenko was booed by striking workers when he visited a tractor plant. The authorities have sought to systematically dismantle the Coordination Council, forcing opposition leaders to leave Belarus through intimidation and threats.

President Lukashenko's rule

Alexander Lukashenko, the first President of the Republic of Belarus, has been in power since 1994, making him Europe's longest-serving ruler. He has been dubbed "Europe's last dictator" by the media, and his rule has been marked by authoritarianism, suppression of dissent, and close ties with Russia.

Lukashenko's early policies focused on preventing the economic turmoil seen in other post-Soviet states, and he maintained state ownership of key industries. He opposed economic shock therapy, arguing that it would lead to recessions and the rise of oligarchy. Instead, he favoured a socialist economic model, retaining Soviet-era symbolism, including the Russian language, coat of arms, and national flag.

Lukashenko's rule has been characterised by suppression of opponents and limits on media freedom. International monitors have not regarded Belarusian elections as free and fair, except for his initial win. This has resulted in sanctions imposed by Western governments on Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials.

Lukashenko's contested victory in the 2020 presidential election, which was marred by allegations of widespread electoral fraud, sparked mass protests across the country. Lukashenko responded with a crackdown on the opposition, and his government has been accused of human rights abuses, including torture and sexual abuse of detainees.

The President's relationship with Russia, once a powerful ally, has deteriorated in recent years. Tensions arose ahead of the 2020 election, with Lukashenko accusing Russia of collaborating with the opposition and attempting to influence the vote. Despite this, Lukashenko has strengthened ties with Russia, allowing the stationing of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus and securing his own continued rule through constitutional amendments.

Lukashenko's rule has been marked by controversial statements, including antisemitic, homophobic, and misogynistic remarks. He has also made dismissive comments about the role of women in Belarusian society, stating that "society is not mature enough to vote for a woman."

Human rights abuses

Belarus has been criticised for its human rights violations and persecution of non-governmental organisations, independent journalists, national minorities, and opposition politicians.

Freedom of Expression

Freedom of expression remains severely restricted in Belarus. Amendments to the criminal code in May 2024 made it easier for authorities to mount criminal prosecutions for "anti-state" activities and introduced liability for "discrediting" the armed forces and government forces. Books and other printed materials continue to be banned for featuring "extremist content", and people are arrested every month for subscribing to "extremist" Telegram channels.

Freedom of Association

The Belarusian government has intensified its crackdown on independent civil society organisations, NGOs, professional organisations, and ethnic and religious communities. All 12 parties opposed to the government were refused re-registration and dissolved ahead of the 2024 elections. Arbitrary charges of "extremism" were used to close civil society organisations, such as the human rights centre Viasna, which was deemed an "extremist formation" in August 2024.

Freedom of Religion and Belief

As part of a crackdown on dissent, all religious organisations were required to re-register or face closure from October 2023. There has been continued repression against Catholic priests and the New Life Protestant Church, which was demolished in June 2023. In October 2023, the church was "liquidated" by a court decision due to "extremist activities".

Freedom of Peaceful Assembly

The right to freedom of peaceful assembly is severely restricted. Three years after the 2020 protests, authorities continue to prosecute and imprison both peaceful participants and those who supported them, including through donations. The Belarusian authorities also abuse the justice system to crack down on dissent, including political opponents, human rights defenders, and lawyers.

Torture and Other Ill-Treatment

Torture and ill-treatment are widespread and endemic, with perpetrators enjoying impunity. Individuals convicted under politically motivated charges face harsh treatment and inhumane conditions, including denial of adequate healthcare, contact with family members, and outdoor exercise. For example, in July 2024, imprisoned artist Ales Pushkin died from an untreated perforated ulcer.

Human Rights Defenders

The Belarusian authorities continue to prevent human rights defenders from carrying out their work, including through arbitrary detention. In March 2024, members of the prominent human rights organisation Viasna were sentenced to lengthy prison terms on false charges.

Refugees' and Migrants' Rights

Belarusian authorities lure refugees and migrants with false promises of easy passage into the EU, then force them across EU borders, where they face pushbacks and abuse. Death sentences continue to be imposed, and new provisions in the criminal code have extended the application of the death penalty.

The suppression of Belarusian language

Belarus is currently facing a suppression of its native language, Belarusian, as Russian takes prominence. This suppression is a result of both historical and present factors.

Historical Factors

Belarus was a part of Russia from 1776 to 1991, and before that, it was part of the Kievan Rus, a medieval coalition of Slavic territories. During these periods, Russia imposed its language, symbols, and cultural institutions on Belarus, suppressing the use of Belarusian.

Present Factors

The current President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has been in power since 1994 and is often described as Europe's "last dictator". Lukashenko has continued to suppress the Belarusian language, viewing it as inferior to Russian and expressing distaste for it. He has stated that "lofty ideas" cannot be expressed in Belarusian, claiming that there are only two "great" languages in the world: Russian and English.

Under Lukashenko's rule, Russian has become an official language in Belarus, alongside Belarusian. Official business is conducted in Russian, and the language dominates the media. Lukashenko himself speaks only Russian, and government officials often do not use their native tongue.

Impact of Russian Influence

Belarus's close ties with Russia have also contributed to the suppression of the Belarusian language. Belarus depends on Russian loans and cheap energy, and the two countries have formed a political and military alliance, with Belarus allowing Russia to deploy troops and missiles on its soil. This alliance has led to Belarus being used as a staging area for the war in Ukraine.

Russia's influence has resulted in the dominance of Russian culture and language in Belarus, with Belarusian rarely heard on the streets of major cities. Belarusian cultural figures have been persecuted, and nationalist organizations have been closed. The education system has also been impacted, with classes in some schools being taught in Russian rather than Belarusian.

Resistance and Efforts to Revive the Language

Despite the suppression, there is resistance and efforts to revive the Belarusian language. An underground movement exists to reverse the Russification of the country, with secret meetings and online classes being held to teach and speak Belarusian.

Some Belarusian officials dispute the notion that the language is being suppressed, claiming that the country is making efforts to support and develop Belarusian. However, critics argue that Lukashenko's occasional praise for the language is tactical and that the nature of his regime prevents him from truly promoting it.

The suppression of the Belarusian language has resulted in it being perceived as a sign of political disloyalty. Speakers of Belarusian face risks of being found by the KGB, the country's notorious intelligence agency. As a result, the language is increasingly abandoned in public administration, education, culture, and the media. The future of the Belarusian language remains uncertain, with its survival depending on the efforts of dedicated individuals and the ability of the country to resist complete absorption into Russian identity.

The crackdown on opposition figures

Alexander Lukashenko, the authoritarian leader of Belarus, has been dubbed "Europe's last dictator" by critics. Since the disputed 2020 presidential election, Lukashenko has launched a relentless crackdown on opposition figures, targeting both those at home and abroad. This has resulted in mass arrests, violence, and even the extradition of dissidents from foreign countries.

Mass Arrests and Police Brutality

In the wake of the 2020 election, Lukashenko responded to protests with mass arrests and violence. Over 65,000 protesters were detained during this period, with thousands more arrested in subsequent demonstrations. The Viasna human rights center reported that more than 100 people were arrested across various cities in Belarus in the week leading up to the January 2024 elections, targeting individuals active in online chats. These chat groups, originally meant for practical matters like maintenance and communal services, were accused by the government of being part of an "extremist" network.

There have been numerous allegations of police brutality, with detainees reporting that they were badly beaten and forced to endure overcrowded jails. Many sought medical help and posted pictures of their injuries on social media after their release, sparking further waves of protests.

Opposition Figures Forced into Exile or Imprisoned

The ongoing oppression has either imprisoned major opposition leaders or forced them into exile. Human rights observers have identified around 1,300 political prisoners in Belarusian detention centers, with many reportedly deprived of sufficient medical care and communication with their families. Prisons are currently overcrowded, with cells designed for three inmates housing up to 20 people.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the opposition leader who challenged Lukashenko in the 2020 election, is currently in exile. She has called on the West to react to the recent wave of repression, encouraging Belarusians to vote against all candidates in the upcoming January 2024 election. Other opposition figures, such as Veronika Tsepkalo and Olga Kovalkova, have also sought refuge in Poland.

Criminal Charges and Extradition

Belarus has also targeted opposition figures abroad, launching criminal cases and seeking extraditions. One such case is that of Vasil Verameichyk, a 34-year-old member of the opposition's Coordination Council. He was detained in Vietnam at the request of Belarusian authorities and extradited to Belarus, where he faces terrorism charges and possibly the death penalty. Verameichyk is the first member of the Kalinouski Regiment, a formation of Belarusian volunteers fighting alongside Ukraine's forces, to be in custody in Belarus.

International Reactions and Support

Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has urged countries to "stop extraditions to Belarus" and help exiled Belarusians. The Coordination Council has also played a crucial role in advocating for the rights and safety of opposition figures, both within Belarus and abroad.

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