Protests In Belarus: Are They Still Going Strong?

Since 2020, Belarus has witnessed mass protests against the authoritarian rule of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994. The largest anti-government protests in the country's history, they were sparked by the disputed 2020 presidential election, in which Lukashenko sought a sixth term in office. The demonstrations intensified after Lukashenko was declared the winner, with his main opponent Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya rejecting the results as falsified. The protests, nicknamed the Slipper Revolution and the Anti-Cockroach Revolution, were met with violent persecution by the authorities, with human rights groups estimating that around 1,300 people were detained for protesting between early May and early August 2020. The crackdown on dissent has continued, with hundreds of people arrested in the lead-up to the January 2024 election, in which Lukashenko is seeking a seventh term.

The role of social media in the Belarus protests

Social media has played a crucial role in the Belarus protests, with platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Telegram becoming a rallying space for protesters and supporters of the opposition. While the Belarusian government has imposed significant media restrictions, citizens have enjoyed relatively unrestricted internet access, making online outlets the main source of uncensored news for Belarusians.

The opposition-aligned Telegram channel Nexta Live, in particular, has been integral to the protests. The number of subscribers to the channel has grown rapidly since the demonstrations began, and it has served as a key platform for sharing information and coordinating demonstrations. In response, the government has attempted to block access to certain websites and platforms, but with limited success.

Social media has allowed protesters to organise and publicise marches with little need for formal political structures, demonstrating the power of these platforms as tools for pro-democracy activists in the face of an authoritarian government. It has also enabled the documentation and dissemination of footage and individual stories of police brutality and violence, further galvanising public support for the opposition and drawing international attention.

The Belarusian government has retaliated by classifying certain social media channels and opposition media outlets as "extremist" organisations, threatening subscribers with prosecution and lengthy prison sentences. Despite these threats and ongoing repression, protesters have continued to leverage social media to amplify their message and coordinate their efforts, highlighting the critical role of these platforms in the ongoing struggle for democratic change in Belarus.

The impact of the protests on Belarusian identity

The 2020–2021 protests in Belarus, nicknamed the Slipper Revolution and the Anti-Cockroach Revolution, were a series of mass demonstrations against President Alexander Lukashenko's regime and the largest anti-government protests in the country's history. The protests began in the lead-up to and during the 2020 presidential election, in which Lukashenko sought his sixth term in office. Lukashenko's long-standing rule has been characterised as authoritarian and dictatorial, earning him the moniker "Europe's last dictator".

The protests also activated a process of resignification of cultural and political symbols, leading to the formation of a blended socio-cultural imaginary. This was evident in the creative adaptation of various globalised patterns and forms of action, such as the use of umbrellas, which served both as a protective measure against pepper spray and a means to shield demonstrators from dye used to identify and arrest protesters.

The marches and rallies during the protests became venues for responding to Lukashenko's false allegations and justifying the refusal to engage in dialogue. They served to communicate a crucial message to the wider society, asserting the protesters' identity, values, and ideals. The expressive symbolism of the marches played a crucial role in reasserting attributes such as worthiness, unity, and commitment.

The protests also provided an opportunity for various intersecting and distinct social groups to come together, including businessmen, IT professionals, doctors, women, students, academics, sportsmen, workers, and pensioners. This diverse participation facilitated incessant improvisation within the mobilisation and demonstration scripts, further shaping the evolving Belarusian identity.

Overall, the impact of the protests on Belarusian identity was profound, leading to a stronger sense of self-identification, a resignification of cultural symbols, and the formation of a blended socio-cultural imaginary that integrated previously disconnected ideologies.

The government's response to the protests

The government's response to the 2020–2021 protests in Belarus was heavy-handed and violent. Security forces used extreme force, including rubber bullets, stun grenades, tear gas, and blank ammunition, to disperse protests.

In the wake of the August 9, 2020, presidential election, Belarusian authorities unleashed a widespread and brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters and their supporters. Security officials and police violently broke up protests in Minsk and other large cities, detaining almost 7,000 protesters and bystanders in just four days. The detainees were held in inhumane and degrading conditions, with reports of beatings, prolonged stress positions, electric shocks, and rape.

The government also targeted journalists who covered the protests, with dozens of detentions and incidents of violence recorded by the Belarusian Association of Journalists in the months following the election. Websites were blocked, and internet access was severely restricted.

The crackdown resulted in the deaths of several protesters, including 34-year-old Alexander Taraikovsky, who was shot by police, and 25-year-old Alexander Vikhor, who died in detention due to a heart-related disease.

The European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials involved in the crackdown, condemning the violence, detentions, and internet shutdowns. The EU, which did not recognise the election outcome, called for new elections and the release of political prisoners.

In addition to the violence and repression, the Belarusian government also resorted to other tactics to suppress the protests. They threatened parents with fines and temporary loss of custody if their children participated in the demonstrations. Students were threatened with expulsion, and there were warnings that live ammunition might be used against protesters.

The government also opened hundreds of politically motivated criminal cases against opposition figures, protesters, and their supporters. At least 121 people were imprisoned awaiting trial, according to the human rights group Viasna.

The crackdown on the 2020–2021 protests in Belarus was widely condemned by the international community, with calls for an end to the violence and the respect for human rights and democratic processes.

The international response to the protests

The international community has responded to the protests in Belarus in various ways, with some countries and organisations accepting and others rejecting the election results.

Condemnation and Sanctions

The European Union (EU) has been one of the most vocal critics of the Belarusian government's response to the protests. The EU has repeatedly condemned the violence and human rights abuses perpetrated by the authorities, and has imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials and entities. It has also redirected funds originally earmarked for Belarus to civil society groups, victims of state violence, and the country's fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Other countries and organisations that have condemned the violence and/or imposed sanctions include:

• The United States
• The United Kingdom
• Canada
• Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
• The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)
• The United Nations Human Rights Office
• The Human Rights Foundation (HRF)
• The World Organisation Against Torture (OMCT)
• The International Olympic Committee
• Lithuania
• Slovakia
• Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania, and Ukraine
• Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
• Switzerland
• The Visegrád Four Central European states
• The Lublin Triangle (Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine)
• Japan
• Norway
• Ukraine
• Australia
• Brazil
• Chile
• Costa Rica
• Fiji
• Ghana
• Israel
• Marshall Islands
• Mexico
• Micronesia
• Monaco
• New Zealand
• Peru
• San Marino
• South Korea
• Switzerland
• Uruguay
• Afghanistan
• Argentina
• Bolivia
• The Federal Department of Foreign Affairs of Switzerland

Positive Reaction to the Election

Some countries, however, have recognised and congratulated Lukashenko on his election victory, including:

• Russia
• Armenia
• Azerbaijan
• Burundi
• China
• Cuba
• Eritrea
• Kazakhstan
• Kyrgyzstan
• Moldova
• Myanmar
• Nicaragua
• North Korea
• Oman
• Syria
• Tajikistan
• Turkey
• Uzbekistan
• Venezuela
• Abkhazia
• South Ossetia
• Serbia
• The disputed President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro

Allegations of Foreign Interference

There have also been allegations of foreign interference in the protests, with Lukashenko claiming that the opposition protests were orchestrated by foreigners, including Americans, NATO members, Russians, or Ukrainians. Russia has also accused Western countries of attempting to isolate Belarus and interfere in its domestic affairs. On the other hand, the EU and the United States have expressed their support for a democratic process in Belarus and called for an end to external interference.

The future of the protests

Secondly, the protests have evolved and adapted to the changing circumstances. Initially, large-scale demonstrations were held in central avenues and squares of Minsk, but as the government crackdown intensified, protesters shifted to smaller, local marches and neighbourhood actions to avoid arrest. This adaptability demonstrates the protesters' resilience and ingenuity in the face of adversity.

Thirdly, the protests have had a significant impact on the Belarusian population's outlook. They have emboldened people to speak out and fostered a stronger sense of Belarusian identity. This increased political awareness and engagement could fuel continued resistance and mobilisation, even if the protests themselves wane in intensity or frequency.

However, the opposition movement faces several challenges. One key challenge is the lack of centralised leadership. While the leaderless nature of the protests has been a strength in terms of their spontaneity and grassroots nature, it also presents difficulties in terms of sustaining momentum and converting protest activity into tangible political pressure. With many opposition leaders in exile or jail, the movement may struggle to maintain cohesion and direction.

Another challenge is the ongoing repression and intimidation tactics employed by the government. The mass arrests, beatings, and restrictions on media and public gatherings have created a pervasive sense of insecurity among protesters and opposition supporters. This could deter some individuals from participating in future protests, particularly those who are already hesitant or fearful.

Lastly, the political situation in Belarus remains highly contentious. The opposition has rejected Lukashenko's vague promises of constitutional reform as mere stalling tactics and continues to demand his resignation and new elections. With both sides firmly entrenched in their positions, a resolution to the standoff does not appear imminent.

In conclusion, while the future trajectory of the protests in Belarus is difficult to predict, the enduring dissatisfaction and mobilisation of a significant portion of the population suggest that some form of continued resistance is likely. The protests may evolve and take on new forms, but the underlying drive for change seems set to persist.

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