Poland-Belarus Border Crisis: Understanding The Geopolitical Flashpoint

The Poland-Belarus border crisis refers to a migrant crisis that began in 2021, with severe mistreatment of migrants and asylum seekers by border forces on both sides. In August 2021, the government of Belarus began coordinating an influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, to the borders of Lithuania, Poland and Latvia. This was viewed as hybrid warfare in response to the deterioration in Belarus–European Union relations. Since then, there have been tens of thousands of unauthorised border crossing attempts, with migrants facing violence, inhuman and degrading treatment, and coercion by border guards on both sides.

The role of Belarusian authorities in the crisis

The role of the Belarusian authorities in the crisis has been described as hybrid warfare by the European Union and independent observers. In July 2021, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko threatened to “flood” the EU with "drugs and migrants".

Belarusian authorities, state-controlled travel agencies, and some Middle Eastern airlines began advertising tours to Belarus, falsely promoting easy entry into the European Union. Migrants were then given instructions on how and where to cross the EU's border. Belarus provided them with wire cutters and axes to cut through border barriers. Those who failed to cross were often forced to stay on the border and were subjected to assault by Belarusian authorities.

Belarusian state involvement was suspected from the beginning of the crisis. Videos emerged online showing Belarusian border guards assisting migrants in crossing the border and preventing them from returning to Belarus. Belarusian soldiers were also directly involved in transporting migrants to the border.

In November 2021, several recordings appeared on social media showing Belarusian soldiers shooting near immigrants to intimidate them. Migrants were also brought to the border at gunpoint or trucked by people wearing balaclavas. Belarusian authorities encouraged the impression that Belarus was a convenient gateway into Europe.

The main purpose of the crisis, according to Maksim Samorukov of the Carnegie Moscow Center, was an attempt by Lukashenko to legitimize his rigged reelection in 2020 and lift sanctions by demonstrating his ability to control the flow of migrants.

The role of Polish authorities in the crisis

The role of Polish authorities in the Poland-Belarus border crisis has been controversial and has evolved over time. Initially, Poland's national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) government implemented a strict border control regime that included "pushing back" migrants and asylum seekers and prohibiting media, humanitarian organisations, and other individuals from accessing the border area. This approach was criticised by human rights groups and opposition parties, including members of the current ruling coalition.

In response to the growing number of attempted crossings and new patterns of violence from migrants, Poland's current ruling coalition, largely comprised of liberal-centrist parties, has adopted a more hardline approach. They have pledged to strengthen the border by upgrading the existing fence, deploying additional military personnel and equipment, and reintroducing an exclusion zone around the Białowieża Forest. These measures aim to deter migrants from attempting to cross the border and improve the safety of Polish officers.

However, Poland's response has also been criticised. The exclusion zone has been opposed by human rights organisations and migrant advocacy groups, who argue that it may violate freedom of the press and hinder the provision of humanitarian aid. Additionally, Poland has been accused of denying adequate medical care, food, and shelter to stranded migrants. There have also been reports of Polish border guards using excessive force, including water cannons and tear gas, against stone-throwing migrants.

The Polish government faces a challenging situation, as taking a tough stance risks being perceived as a continuation of the previous administration's controversial policies and a neglect of human rights. On the other hand, relaxing existing measures could be seen as weak and compromising national security.

The role of human rights organisations in the crisis

Human rights organisations have been critical of the actions of both Poland and Belarus during the border crisis. Human Rights Watch accused the Belarusian authorities of manufacturing the crisis and exploiting migrants, and the Polish government of unlawfully pushing migrants back to Belarus. Human Rights Watch also criticised the Belarusian authorities for violence, inhuman and degrading treatment, and the use of coercion against migrants.

In 2021, Human Rights Watch published a report titled "Die Here or Go to Poland: Belarus' and Poland's Shared Responsibility for Border Abuses". The report called on both countries to "switch to a rights-respecting response and end the human suffering". It also made a series of recommendations to both governments, including:

To the Government of Belarus

• Stop all abuses against migrants, including violence, theft, and detaining them in open-air sites without shelter, food, or water.
• Immediately allow access to the restricted border area for humanitarian organisations and independent observers.
• Investigate and hold to account border officials who abuse migrants.
• Respect people’s right to freedom of movement, and allow migrants who wish to leave the border area to return to Minsk or their home countries.

To the Government of Poland

• End summary and collective expulsions of migrants and stop all abuses against migrants at the border with Belarus, including violence and theft.
• Lift the state of emergency and allow immediate access to the restricted border area for humanitarian organisations and independent observers, including journalists, civil society organisations, lawyers, and human rights workers.
• Provide migrants at the border with access to formalised procedures, including the opportunity to lodge claims for protection in Poland and safeguards against being returned to a country where they are likely to face persecution, ill-treatment, or inhuman and degrading conditions.
• Stop separating families when admitting people in need of medical treatment to hospitals in Poland.

In 2022, Human Rights Watch published another report, detailing violence and pushbacks at the Poland-Belarus border. The report called on Poland to "immediately stop pushbacks to Belarus" and allow humanitarian aid workers and independent observers access to the restricted border area. It also called on Belarus to "immediately stop all abuse of migrants".

The impact of the crisis on local communities

The impact of the Poland-Belarus border crisis on local communities has been significant, with consequences for both sides of the border.

On the Polish side, the crisis has led to a decline in tourism, which has hurt local businesses, especially those reliant on tourists from Western Europe. The state of emergency imposed by the Polish government and the closure of certain border crossings have restricted access to the border area, disrupting cross-border trade and impacting local economies. The construction of border walls and increased security measures have further isolated local communities and affected the movement of people and goods.

Local residents near the border have also faced increased security risks due to the crisis. There have been reports of violence and attacks by migrants attempting to cross the border, leading to concerns about safety. The presence of military and security personnel in the area has also changed the dynamic of these communities.

On the Belarusian side, the crisis has resulted in the establishment of migrant camps, with thousands of people seeking to cross the border into Poland. These camps have been described as having poor living conditions, with inadequate food, water, and medical care. Human rights organizations have raised concerns about the treatment of migrants by Belarusian authorities, including allegations of violence, coercion, and exploitation.

The crisis has also led to tensions between Poland and Belarus, with accusations of hybrid warfare and human rights violations. The Polish government has faced criticism for its handling of the crisis, including the pushback of migrants and the restriction of access to the border area for journalists and humanitarian organizations.

Overall, the impact of the Poland-Belarus border crisis on local communities has been far-reaching, affecting livelihoods, safety, and community dynamics on both sides of the border. The crisis has disrupted daily life and heightened tensions in the region.

The changing nature of the crisis since its onset

The Poland-Belarus border crisis began in 2021, with the ill-treatment of migrants and asylum seekers by border forces on both sides. The crisis has evolved since its onset, with changing patterns of violence and an increasing number of attempted crossings.

In the initial stages of the crisis, violence primarily comprised throwing sticks and stones, particularly towards patrol cars. However, in recent times, knife attacks targeting Polish officers have been observed for the first time, resulting in soldiers and police being wounded and even leading to the death of a Polish soldier. This has led to the deployment of additional soldiers and police, which may lead to more frequent patrols and quicker responses to attempted border crossings.

The crisis has also witnessed the emergence of 'patriotic' civilian patrols, which aim to apprehend migrants in the forests along the border. The rise of these patrols, alongside the continued pushbacks and ill-treatment of migrants, has created an oppressive and bleak atmosphere in the area. The situation has become increasingly tense, with journalists reporting incidents of car tyres being slashed and activists being shouted at.

The changing nature of the crisis has posed challenges for the Polish government, which now includes liberal-centrist parties that previously emphasised democratic values and human rights while in opposition. The government faces a difficult position, as taking a tough stance may be perceived as a continuation of the previous government's controversial border policies, while relaxing existing measures may be seen as neglecting national security.

Moreover, the crisis has been exacerbated by the actions of the Belarusian government, which continues to allow people to enter Belarus and provide them with equipment to cross the border into Poland. The electronic sensors on the border wall logged more than 20,000 crossing attempts in 2023, up from 16,000 attempts in 2022. The Belarusian authorities' role in the crisis has been widely seen as an attempt to retaliate against sanctions imposed by the EU and to destabilise the region.

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