Belarus' Entry: A New War Dynamic

As the war in Ukraine rages on, the world watches with bated breath, wondering if and when Belarus will enter the war. Belarus has already supported Russia in the conflict by allowing Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory and launch attacks on Ukraine from its border. However, public opinion polls show that Belarusians largely oppose their country's involvement in the war and do not want their territory to be used by Russia. Despite this, Belarus has continued to strengthen its ties with Russia, and there is speculation that it could play a bigger role in the war. The following paragraphs will explore the potential consequences and implications of Belarus' entry into the war.

Belarus's military is not well-staffed and has no war experience

Belarus's military is not particularly well-staffed and has not taken part in any military action since gaining independence at the end of the Cold War. The Minsk-based newspaper Vot Tak estimates the strength of the Belarusian army to be around 65,000 people, of whom only 45,000 are servicemen, with the remaining 20,000 being civilian personnel. To this number, we can add 12,000 soldiers of the Internal Troops. These internal troops are loyal to Lukashenko and were involved in the violent suppression of rallies in 2020 after the longstanding president rigged the results of the national election.

Belarus's army does not have many armoured vehicles: several hundred T-72 tanks of various modifications, of which only 20 are well-equipped and modern. There are 30 MiG-29 fighters, 22 Su-25 attack aircraft, four Su-30SMs, and another 20 Su-27 fighters in storage, which are unlikely to be combat-ready.

Belarus's military has only been used for internal suppression, which does not translate to war experience. There is a widespread belief among Ukrainians that the Belarusian army will not go against Ukraine. This belief is based on the genuinely friendly relationship between the two nations, including the support Belarusians showed for Ukrainians during the revolutions of 2004 and 2014, and the general unwillingness to live under the leadership of the Kremlin. Many Belarusians chose to flee to Ukraine, seeking protection from Lukashenko's regime, and actively helped Ukrainian refugees during the war.

However, the people and the army in Belarus are not united, as demonstrated by the rallies in 2020. There is little Belarusians themselves can do if the army is ordered to attack Ukraine. Lukashenko's senior officers are loyal, built on a Soviet mentality, and largely committed to the idea of unification of the former Soviet republics.

Ukrainian troops are stationed at the Belarus-Ukraine border

In August 2024, Belarus announced the transfer of military equipment and special forces to areas bordering Ukraine. This was followed by statements from President Alexander Lukashenko about Ukrainian attack drones being shot down over Belarusian airspace. Lukashenko also claimed that Ukraine had stationed more than 120,000 troops at its border with Belarus, and that Belarus had deployed nearly a third of its armed forces along the entire border in response. However, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian border service disputed this, stating that there was no increase in the number of equipment or personnel of Belarusian units near the border.

The presence of Ukrainian troops at the border aims to deter a potential Belarusian attack and defend against any incursions. Ukraine has warned Belarus not to make tragic mistakes under Moscow's pressure and has threatened to take all necessary measures to exercise its right to self-defense if its border is violated.

The situation along the Belarus-Ukraine border remains tense and uncertain, with the risk of an attack from Belarus lingering.

Belarus's army is loyal to Lukashenko, not the people

Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war has been limited to allowing Russia to use its territory to stage attacks on Ukraine. However, there is a belief that the Belarusian army will not go against Ukraine, and if ordered to do so, may turn against Lukashenko. This belief is based on the friendly relationship between the two nations and the Belarusian people's general unwillingness to live under Kremlin leadership.

However, the army's loyalty lies with Lukashenko, not the people. The internal troops, numbering around 12,000 soldiers, are loyal to Lukashenko and played a role in dispersing rallies in 2020 after the president rigged the results of the national election. These troops were responsible for brutally dispersing peaceful, unarmed protesters, with hundreds thrown into police vans, beaten, and raped.

Lukashenko's senior officers are also loyal, subscribing to a Soviet mentality and committed to the idea of unification of the former Soviet republics. During the suppression of civil protests in 2020, not only the ex-KGB special forces, riot police, and Interior Ministry troops, but also separate airborne assault brigades showed their loyalty to the regime and cruelty to their own people.

The army's loyalty to Lukashenko is further reinforced by fear and financial incentives. The army's top brass is indoctrinated with a personality cult surrounding Lukashenko, making it difficult for individuals to resign from the military. The army's senior officers are built on a Soviet mentality and are largely committed to the idea of unification with other former Soviet republics.

While there may be dissent within the ranks, it is unlikely to manifest as open rebellion due to the fear of repression and the consequences of dissent. The army's presence in the conflict would force Ukraine to redeploy some of its troops and could deliver heavy blows to civilians and critical infrastructure.

The Belarusian people are against the war and support Ukraine

The Belarusian people are against the war and have shown their support for Ukraine in various ways. Despite the country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, being a close ally of Russia, public opinion polls indicate that the Belarusian population largely opposes their country's involvement in the war and the use of their territory by Russia. This opposition has manifested in the form of protests, with people taking to the streets to express their disapproval of the conflict. Additionally, pro-Ukrainian partisan groups have emerged in Belarus, engaging in acts of sabotage, such as targeting railways, to hinder Putin's aggression.

The Belarusian people's resistance to the war extends beyond their own borders. Hundreds of Belarusian citizens have joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with some even forming separate battalions and regiments, such as the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Battalion, to actively fight against Russian forces. Belarusian volunteers are among the largest foreign military groups supporting Ukraine, and their contributions have been significant.

The Belarusian diaspora has also demonstrated their solidarity with Ukraine by attending anti-war rallies, aiding organizations that assist Ukrainian refugees, and providing financial and humanitarian support. They understand the importance of standing united against the invasion and helping those affected by it.

On the domestic front, Belarusian activists have disrupted the work of the Belarusian Railway, which transports Russian military trains, by destroying control points, causing short circuits, and engaging in acts of sabotage. These actions have resulted in disruptions for Russian military operations and showcased the determination of the Belarusian people to hinder the war efforts.

The Belarusian opposition leaders, journalists, and celebrities have also played a crucial role in condemning the war. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the exiled opposition leader, has been vocal in her criticism of Lukashenko's participation in the invasion and has expressed her belief in Ukraine's eventual victory. She has urged Belarusian soldiers to disobey any illegal orders to join the war on Russia's side. Other notable figures, such as Nobel Laureate Svetlana Alexievich, have added their voices to the chorus of opposition, emphasizing the importance of standing against the aggression.

The Belarusian people's stance against the war and their support for Ukraine are evident through their actions, both within Belarus and beyond. They recognize the senselessness of the conflict and the importance of standing united with their Ukrainian neighbors.

Belarus is reliant on Russia, but Russia cannot force Belarus into the war

Belarus is reliant on Russia for political survival, but Russia cannot force Belarus into the war. Belarus's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is almost entirely dependent on the Kremlin for his political survival. Lukashenko was nearly ousted in 2020 by nationwide protests following a rigged presidential election and only managed to cling to power thanks to Moscow's intervention. This reliance on Russia has robbed Lukashenko of any lingering legitimacy and forced him to accept what some have termed the "creeping annexation" of his country by the Kremlin.

However, forcing Belarus into the war could end in disaster for both Lukashenko and Putin. Belarusian society has shown virtually no interest in joining Russia's anti-Ukrainian crusade. While pro-Russian sentiment remains widespread in the country, there is little enthusiasm for the imperial ambitions underpinning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many Belarusians feel a sense of solidarity with their Ukrainian neighbours and recognise that today's resurgent Russian imperialism poses a similar threat to their own country. This mood has raised serious questions about the readiness of the Belarusian military to participate in Russia's war. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, there have been numerous reports claiming that Belarusian officers are deeply reluctant to fight in Ukraine.

If Lukashenko attempts to force them, there is a reasonable chance he will not be obeyed. This could destabilise his regime and lead to unpredictable consequences for the Kremlin. Lukashenko's domestic position is already precarious, and engaging in foreign wars will only make it more so. Belarusian society is not united, as demonstrated by the rallies in 2020, and there is little the Belarusians themselves can do if the army is ordered to attack. However, there is a widespread belief among Ukrainians that the Belarusian army will not go against Ukraine. And if such an order is given, it may turn against Lukashenko himself. Knowing and fearing this, Lukashenko delays entering the war.

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