Russia-Belarus: Allies Or Puppets?

Belarus and Russia have a long history of political and economic ties, with Russia being Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner. The two countries share a land border and constitute the supranational Union State, with a legal basis for integration set up in 1999. Belarus has been a key asset for Russia, especially in the war in Ukraine, but has also been attempting to maintain some strategic independence. The relationship has been strained at times, with Belarus accusing Russia of trying to incorporate it into Russia and cutting economic subsidies, and Russia accusing Belarus of attempting to destabilize the country. Belarus has also been subject to international sanctions due to its authoritarian regime and human rights abuses, which has impacted its relationship with Russia.

The future of the Union State between Belarus and Russia

The Union State between Belarus and Russia was established in 1999 with the aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through economic and defence integration. The Union State is based on geographic location, close historic and cultural links, economic ties, and cooperation between Belarusian and Russian businesses.

The future of the Union State remains uncertain, with Belarus and Russia continuing to debate the terms of the agreement. There are several factors that could influence the future of the Union State:

• Energy Relations: Energy is a major source of revenue for both countries, but Belarus lacks leverage due to its reliance on Russian energy supplies. Russia has used this leverage to pressure Belarus to accede to deeper political and economic integration. Belarus has attempted to diversify its energy sources, but importing oil from other countries would be more expensive.
• Economic Integration: Belarus and Russia have agreed on provisions for closer cooperation between their customs services and the coordination of industrial policies. However, they have been unable to reach an agreement on oil and gas prices, tax policies, and the creation of a single currency.
• Military Cooperation: Russia and Belarus have close military relations and jointly operate several military bases and radars in Belarus. They also conduct joint military exercises and have established a joint regional military force.
• Geopolitical Considerations: Russia seeks to maintain its influence in the post-Soviet space and borders NATO countries such as Lithuania and Latvia. Belarus, on the other hand, is concerned about losing its sovereignty and has diversified its foreign policy, including ties with the US, EU, and China.
• Domestic Politics: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has affirmed his commitment to protecting the country's sovereignty and has rallied the people by appealing to their nationalism. He has also promoted a new national identity distinct from Russia, and public opinion in Belarus is unified against integration with Russia.

The prospects for the Union State remain unclear, and it is difficult to predict whether Belarus will eventually join Russia in a unified state or maintain the status quo and mend relations with the West. The COVID-19 pandemic and the global recession have further complicated the situation, making it more likely that talks between the two countries will continue without a definitive decision on the establishment of a union state.

Belarus's role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Belarus has played a key role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The country, which shares a 674-mile border with Ukraine, served as a staging ground for Russian troops in the months preceding the invasion. Belarus allowed Russia to conduct military drills on its territory and launch part of the invasion from its soil, providing the shortest possible land route to Kyiv.

In the initial stages of the conflict, Belarus lent its territory to Russian soldiers to attack Ukraine, but there is no evidence that Belarusian troops joined the invasion. However, there have been reports of Belarusian soldiers among the wounded and killed, and Russian soldiers wounded in Ukraine have been treated in Belarusian hospitals.

The involvement of Belarus has been condemned internationally, with the EU, US, UK, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. Belarus's participation in the conflict is unpopular among its citizens, with opinion polls indicating growing discontent with Lukashenko's regime and ambivalence about the country's relationship with Russia.

Belarus has also been involved in peace initiatives, hosting Russo-Ukrainian talks on its border, although these did not result in a lasting ceasefire.

The roots of Belarus's involvement in the conflict lie in its close economic and political ties with Russia, which have been maintained since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Belarus is Russia's largest and most important economic and political partner, and both countries are members of several international organizations, including the Eurasian Economic Union.

In recent years, Belarus has attempted to play Russia and Europe against each other, with Lukashenko shifting his overtures between the two to suit his needs. However, a turning point came in 2020 when Lukashenko declared victory in a disputed presidential election, leading to mass protests and a crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators. This prompted Western sanctions and strained diplomatic ties with the US. As a result, Lukashenko became increasingly dependent on Russian support, and Putin has since called in this favor with Belarus's involvement in the Ukraine invasion.

The impact of sanctions on Belarus

The sanctions imposed on Belarus by the EU, UK, and US have targeted the country's key economic sectors, including potash, oil refining, and tobacco industries, as well as banking and financial services. These sanctions have restricted access to European capital markets, banned European air carriers from flying through Belarus, and imposed individual restrictions on certain citizens. The sanctions have also led to a ban on European businesses cooperating with Belarusian exporters in specific sectors. The true extent of the sanctions, particularly the American sanctions, is yet to be fully understood, and their impact will likely be felt more significantly in the coming years.

The stability of the Belarusian economy is a crucial factor in the dynamics of the political conflict between Belarus and the EU. While the Belarusian economy showed positive growth in the first half of 2021, there are underlying internal problems, including significant price inflation and decreasing investments in fixed assets. The Western sanctions, which were introduced in 2021, have not yet had a profound impact, but their effects are expected to be more noticeable in 2022 and beyond. According to the Eurasian Development Bank, GDP growth in Belarus is predicted to be limited to 1-1.5% in the coming years.

Estimates of the economic damage caused by the sanctions vary, with the Belarusian government estimating a loss of 3% of GDP per year, while expert estimates range from 7-13%. The actual losses will depend on factors such as the transit of Belarusian potash fertilizers through the Baltic states and the use of extraterritorial jurisdiction by the US as part of its sanctions package. The main consequence of the sanctions has been the ban on purchases of Belarusian oil products by Ukraine, which was their largest importer. This alone could result in losses exceeding $5 billion, or about 8% of Belarus' GDP.

The sanctions have also had an impact on the political relationship between Belarus and the EU. The Belarusian opposition has struggled to convince Western countries to impose economic restrictions on the regime, and the current sanctions have been described as ""half-hearted." The opposition needs to appeal to Europe's economic and strategic interests, highlighting the potential for Belarus to provide reliable sources of important products and ingredients, as well as its strategic location between Berlin, Moscow, and Beijing.

Belarus's energy dependence on Russia

Belarus is heavily dependent on Russia for its energy needs. Despite having some domestic production of crude oil and natural gas, Belarus relies on imports to meet most of its energy demands. Russia is the main supplier of crude oil refined in Belarus, and Belarus, in turn, is Ukraine's primary supplier of oil products.

Belarus is also an important part of Russia's gas transit corridor to Western Europe. Matters related to natural gas transit, such as infrastructure, system operations, tariff structure, and technical services, are established in a bilateral agreement with Russia's Gazprom.

The Belarusian economy is heavily dependent on cheap Russian oil and gas. Belarus obtains a substantial share of its revenue from selling products derived from Russian crude, re-exporting Russian oil, and charging transit fees for sending gas to Ukraine and Europe through its pipeline networks. Belarus also benefits from Russian oil and gas in another way: the prices it pays for these commodities for domestic use are much lower than international rates.

The dependence on below-market-price Russian energy means Belarus has had to pursue a foreign policy that keeps it tightly within Moscow's orbit. Belarus's membership in the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union and its negotiations with Russia on forming a political and economic union have not prevented the two countries from periodic oil and gas pricing disputes. Russia has used its energy-supply muscle to try to force Belarus into a political and economic union.

Belarus has tried to diversify its economy and reduce its dependence on Russian energy, but these efforts have largely failed. The country has a unique situation, being located next to its nearly sole energy supplier, Russia, and having an economy heavily based on hydrocarbon resources.

The energy sector is owned and operated by the Belarusian government, and the president holds the exclusive right to make all strategic decisions. The government believes that having control over the entire energy sector will guarantee a secure and stable energy supply.

The main priorities of Belarusian energy policy are to provide reliable and sustainable energy for the national economy while reducing energy import dependence and improving the sector's financial stability. Belarus is contemplating power generation fuel diversification to include more coal and renewables, and it has introduced a green feed-in tariff to attract more investment in renewables.

The country's first nuclear plant, expected to be fully operational in 2021, will somewhat reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas.

The influence of Russian propaganda in Belarus

Russia's influence in Belarus is far-reaching and has deep historical roots, impacting various spheres, from the economy and culture to the military sector. This influence extends to the dissemination of propaganda, with Russian media outlets and social media services prevalent in Belarus. Russian state media, such as RT, has been complicit in spreading pro-Kremlin narratives and disinformation in Belarus, particularly during the 2020-2021 protests against the allegedly rigged presidential election.

Russian propaganda in Belarus aims to portray the EU and its member states as economically and politically unstable, while ignoring the benefits of EU membership. This narrative aligns with the interests of the Belarusian regime, led by President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russia. Lukashenko has contributed to and benefited from the dissemination of disinformation, with his statements often forming the basis for state-controlled media narratives.

The educational system in Belarus also plays a role in spreading Russian influence, with compulsory courses that promote pro-Russian and pro-Soviet ideologies while portraying Western states, the EU, NATO, Poland, and the European Union as hostile actors. This indoctrination aims to shape the views of Belarusian youth and foster loyalty to Russia and the current regime.

Additionally, Russian social media services like VKontakte, Odnoklassniki, and Moi.mir, all owned by Kremlin-tied Mail.ru, have a significant user base in Belarus, exceeding Facebook and Instagram. These platforms censor content critical of Vladimir Putin and primarily serve as an extension of Russian soft power and disinformation campaigns.

The Kremlin's propaganda efforts in Belarus are aimed at maintaining and expanding its influence in the region, countering Western influence, and preventing Belarus from turning toward the EU or NATO. By spreading disinformation and shaping public opinion in Belarus, Russia seeks to preserve its dominant position and exert control over its neighbour.

Frequently asked questions