The Russia-Belarus Relationship: A Close Alliance?

Russia and Belarus have a close relationship based on their geographic location, shared history, and cultural links. Belarus is a close ally of Russia and has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The two countries have a union agreement that promotes close political, economic, and military ties. Russia has been a major sponsor of Belarus' Soviet-style economy, providing cheap energy and loans. They also have strong economic ties, with Russia accounting for more than half of Belarus' foreign trade. In addition, Russia and Belarus have coordinated their foreign policies and military activities, including the establishment of a joint regional military force.

Military cooperation

Russia and Belarus have a union agreement that includes close political, economic, and military ties. The two countries have a joint regional military force, coordinate their air defence systems, and conduct joint military exercises. They also consider a number of questions regarding operative and combat training.

In 2021, Russia's defence minister Sergei Shoigu voiced concern about a buildup of NATO forces near Russia's borders and called for stronger defence ties with Belarus. Shoigu and his Belarusian counterpart extended agreements on two Russian military facilities in Belarus: an early warning radar in the Brest region near Poland and a naval communications centre in Vileyka, near Minsk.

Russia and Belarus have been in talks for years to move closer together. They have numerous agreements governing military cooperation, from the use of a radar facility in southwestern Belarus to a joint regional air defence system, to special arrangements for collaboration during a time of imminent threat. Russia conducts regular exercises with Belarusian forces, and hosts their officers in Russian military academies. Some exercises have begun to test combined Russian-Belarusian battalions, demonstrating further plans for integration at the tactical level.

A significant number of Belarusian units have been rotating through Russian training ranges for exercises, suggesting that Russia is investing in supporting Belarusian levels of readiness and interoperability with those forces. Russia has also agreed with Belarus to establish three permanent joint training centres, two of them in Russia (Kaliningrad and Nizhny Novgorod) and one in Grodno, Belarus. The latter is significant as it will permit a more permanent Russian presence in Belarus, on the Polish border, and the ability to rotate forces through the country. Such agreements create the legal basis for a Russian military presence, which can prove significant in a crisis.

The main thrust of these efforts is to establish a small deterrent force in Belarus, develop practical interoperability with Belarusian forces at tactical levels, and further integrate a regional grouping of forces (Belarusian military) into the Western Military District's planning.

Economic ties

Belarus and Russia have a close economic partnership. Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic partner and key trade partner, and Belarus is a major export market for Belarusian manufacturers. Russia accounts for more than half of Belarus's foreign trade, and as of 2009, Belarus accounted for around 6% of Russia's trade.

The two countries have a union agreement that includes close economic ties. In 1999, the two countries signed the Agreement on the Establishment of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, which set up a legal basis for integration between the two countries. This agreement included a series of major goals, such as establishing a single economic and customs area, ensuring sustainable economic development, and ensuring the free flow of goods, services, and capital.

In addition to the union agreement, Belarus and Russia are also members of several international organizations that promote economic cooperation, including the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Belarus and Russia also have several bilateral agreements in place to facilitate economic cooperation. For example, the Treaty on Equal Rights of Citizens, signed in 1998, covers employment, and access to medical care and education.

However, the economic relationship between Belarus and Russia has not always been smooth. In the early 2000s, there was a dispute over the price of gas, which led to a temporary suspension of supplies to Belarus. There have also been instances of Russia using economic subsidies and oil exports as leverage to exert political pressure on Belarus. Despite these tensions, the two countries' economic ties remain strong, and they continue to cooperate in areas such as energy, transport, and industrial cooperation.

Political ties

Belarus and Russia have a union agreement that includes close political ties. Both countries are members of the supranational Union State, which was established in 1999. The Union State is based on the geographic location, close historic and cultural links, economic ties, and cooperation between Belarusian and Russian businesses. The agreement sets out several major goals, including ensuring peaceful and democratic development, establishing a single economic and customs area, and pursuing agreed-upon foreign, defence, and social policies.

Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner. Belarus is a pro-Russia country, and both nations are part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a six-country military alliance dominated by Russia. They also share membership in other international organizations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the United Nations.

The close relationship between the two countries is also reflected in their coordination of foreign policies. They renew a programme of agreed measures in the field of foreign policy every two years. Additionally, Belarus and Russia have cooperated in the post-Soviet area by actively participating in integration projects and supporting the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).

In recent years, there have been some tensions and fluctuations in the relationship. For example, in 2020, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Russia of trying to incorporate Belarus into Russia, leading to Russia cutting economic subsidies. However, the relationship was later strengthened again, with Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin holding bilateral talks and declaring their countries' closeness.

Despite these fluctuations, the geopolitical realities and the importance of good relations between the two countries are expected to maintain their close ties. Russia's defence chief has also called for stronger defence ties with Belarus, citing concerns about a buildup of NATO forces near their borders. Belarus has allowed Russian forces to stage part of the invasion of Ukraine from its territory and has stated that its troops can take part in the invasion if needed.

Energy cooperation

Russia and Belarus have a close strategic partnership that is based on their geographic location, shared history, and cultural links. In 1999, the two countries signed the Agreement on the Establishment of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, which laid the legal groundwork for integration. Since then, they have been working towards shared goals, including democratic development, economic growth, and security.

The agreement is more favourable to Russia, with higher transhipment tariffs in Russian ports. Additionally, the deal covers approximately 3 million tonnes of fuel annually, while exports via Baltic ports in recent years reached double that value, accounting for 50-60% of Belarus's total exports of petroleum products. Despite the agreement, it is unlikely that Belarus will completely discontinue its collaboration with Baltic ports due to financial considerations and the reluctance of Russian operators to offer competitive rates.

In addition to petroleum products, Belarus has also been negotiating with Russia over oil and gas supplies. Minsk has authorised the renegotiation of oil supply contracts, as it is unhappy with the current rates, particularly following the reform of oil extraction taxation in Russia, which has reduced price preferences for Belarusian importers. Belarus is seeking to reintroduce compensation for the margins of Russian oil companies and to receive compensation for the growing costs associated with the tax manoeuvre.

Furthermore, Belarus has been working towards receiving a lower offer for gas prices, despite the current rate being quite competitive compared to the upward trend on European markets. While any modification of gas supply terms is still under bilateral consultation, Moscow has consistently linked the creation of a common fuel market to building a common market in other areas, including the budget and tax system.

Overall, energy cooperation between Russia and Belarus is complex and multifaceted, with both countries leveraging their positions to negotiate favourable terms while also recognising their interdependence in the energy sector.

Cultural cooperation

The cultural cooperation between Belarus and Russia is extensive and wide-ranging. The two countries share a deep cultural affinity, with a history of close ties and a similar Soviet legacy. The Union State agreement, signed in 1999, provides a legal basis for integration and cooperation between the two countries.

One of the most prominent examples of cultural cooperation is the annual festival, Slaviansky Bazar in Vitebsk, which is jointly organised by both countries. In addition, Belarus and Russia hold several other joint art, theatre, and cinema festivals annually.

The two countries have also signed numerous cultural cooperation agreements between museums, theatres, Houses of Creativity, and other cultural and educational institutions. These include agreements between Minsk and St. Petersburg, the Mahilioŭ region and the Bryansk region, Belarus and the Rostov, Novosibirsk, and Tatarstan regions, among others. As a result, Russian directors, artists, actors, conductors, and other cultural workers have increasingly filled Belarus's cultural sphere.

Russian performers, theatre productions, and shows are also prevalent in Belarusian venues. Russian theatre companies from Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kazan, Yekaterinburg, and other cities have toured Belarusian venues, including the Theatre of the Young Spectator in Minsk, which hosted several Russian theatre companies in 2023. Russian classical music performers and orchestras from various Russian cities have performed at the Minsk Belarusian State Philharmonic.

In the sphere of literature and publishing, there is a growing presence of Russian books in Belarusian bookstores and library collections. Russian authors and publications are displacing Belarusian ones, contributing to the increasing de-Belarusisation of the country through its Russification.

In the realm of education, Russia is working to promote the Russian language and culture in Belarus. Russian Houses in Brest, Homiel, Minsk, and Viciebsk offer various programmes and activities aimed at different age groups, from kindergarten to adulthood. These houses provide information about educational opportunities in Russia, promote cultural exchange programmes, and support the creation of local spaces for events related to Russian language, literature, culture, and shared history. Quotas for Belarusian students in Russian universities have been increased, and Russian language and education programmes are being implemented in Belarus with support from Russian organisations.

In addition, the two countries are working towards the formation of a common cultural space, with the State Secretary of the Union State, Dmitry Mezentsev, prioritising this goal. This includes the preservation of historical memory and the historical and cultural heritage of both nations.

Overall, the cultural cooperation between Belarus and Russia is extensive and far-reaching, with a focus on joint projects, cultural exchanges, and the promotion of Russian language and culture in Belarus.

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