The Worsening Conflict In Afghanistan: A Comprehensive Analysis

The war in Afghanistan has been ongoing since 2001, making it the longest war in American history. The war was initially started in response to the 9/11 attacks, with the goal of preventing Afghanistan from becoming a platform for terrorist attacks against the United States.

The war has been deemed a failure by many, with the US unable to end the violence or hand over the war to the Afghan authorities. The Afghan government cannot survive without US military backing, and civilian casualties have remained high over the past several years.

The war has cost the US close to $1 trillion, and more than 2,300 US military personnel have lost their lives.

The war has been characterised by widespread corruption, intense grievances, Pakistani meddling, and deep-rooted resistance to foreign occupation.

However, there were also fleeting opportunities to find peace, or at least a more sustainable, less costly, and less violent stalemate. American leaders failed to grasp those chances, thanks to unjustified overconfidence following US military victories and their fear of being held responsible if terrorists based in Afghanistan once again attacked the United States.

The US's longest war

The war in Afghanistan was the longest war in American history, lasting 20 years. The war was initiated by the United States in response to the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington, which were planned by al-Qaeda from Afghanistan. The war was fought against the Taliban, who had been providing a safe haven for al-Qaeda.

The war was initially successful, with the Taliban being routed and al-Qaeda sent fleeing. However, the Bush administration's focus soon shifted to Iraq, and the Taliban regrouped and retook control of large parts of the country.

The Obama administration attempted to stabilise the situation by sending additional troops and increasing funding, but ultimately failed to defeat the Taliban. The Trump administration negotiated a withdrawal deal with the Taliban, and the Biden administration completed the withdrawal in 2021.

The war cost over $2 trillion and resulted in the deaths of thousands of American service members and tens of thousands of Afghans. It is widely considered a failure, with the Taliban retaking control of the country shortly after the US withdrawal.

The Taliban's resurgence

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan left a security vacuum that the Taliban was quick to fill. The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) struggled to maintain control of the country and suffered heavy casualties. The Taliban took advantage of this weakness and began to rapidly seize territory, capturing multiple provincial capitals within days. This ultimately led to the fall of Kabul and the collapse of the Afghan government.

The Taliban's resilience and ability to regroup after setbacks played a significant role in their resurgence. They were able to withstand repeated troop surges and defy America's most fearsome weapons. They also had the advantage of operating from sanctuaries in Pakistan, which provided them with a safe haven and allowed them to regroup and launch attacks.

Pakistan's support for the Taliban was a significant factor in their resurgence. Pakistan's security establishment cheered the Taliban's military gains and had been funneling support to them for decades. Pakistan saw the Taliban as an important partner in their competition with India and wanted to maintain influence in Afghanistan. However, the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan could ultimately backfire for Pakistan, as it may lead to increased extremism at home and further isolation on the world stage.

The US's counterinsurgency strategy

The US counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan has been a long-term effort to stabilize the country and defeat the Taliban insurgency. The strategy has evolved over time, with different approaches taken by various US administrations.

One key strategy has been the "clear, hold, and build" approach, which involves clearing an area of insurgents, holding the area to establish security, and then building the capacity of local Afghan forces to maintain security. This strategy has been resource-intensive, requiring a significant number of US troops to implement effectively. General McChrystal has been a strong advocate for this strategy, emphasizing the need for a robust COIN (counterinsurgency) initiative to succeed.

A critical aspect of the US counterinsurgency strategy has been the development of Afghan security forces capable of providing security and governance to the country. The goal is to transition responsibility for securing Afghanistan from US and international forces to the Afghans themselves. However, there have been challenges in achieving this objective. One issue is the insufficient number of Afghan soldiers and police to hold areas cleared of insurgents. As a result, US troops have often had to repeatedly clear the same areas, leading to losses in American lives and a decline in Afghan public support.

Another challenge has been the role of religion in the insurgency. Some analysts have questioned whether the counterinsurgency strategy adequately addresses the ideological motivations fueling the Afghan insurgency. Despite these challenges, proponents of the counterinsurgency strategy argue that it has a proven track record of defeating insurgencies and remains the best option for stabilizing Afghanistan.

The US's relationship with Pakistan

The relationship between the two nations has been described as a "rollercoaster" characterised by close coordination and lows marked by deep bilateral estrangement. The United States established diplomatic relations with Pakistan following the country's independence in 1947 and has since been one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment in Pakistan and remains Pakistan's largest export market. Pakistan has been a major non-NATO ally since 2002 and has been a key ally in the war on terror with the United States.

The relationship between the two nations has been strained by the war in Afghanistan, with the United States accusing Pakistan of providing safe havens to terrorists. The United States has imposed sanctions on Pakistan on various occasions to force Pakistan to comply with its strategic interests.

The relationship has also been strained by the killing of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, the drone strikes by both nations, and the arrest of a spy in Lahore.

However, the United States and Pakistan have continued to seek a productive relationship to defeat terrorist organisations in the war on terror. Pakistan has taken some action against militant groups and UN-designated terrorist organisations in accordance with its National Action Plan against terrorism.

The United States has committed more than 77 million COVID-19 vaccine doses to Pakistan and has partnered with Pakistani institutions to build detection and treatment capacities throughout the pandemic.

The United States has also sought to deepen commercial ties with Pakistan, including through engagement by senior officials from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Department of State, and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) with Pakistani leaders.

The US's relationship with the Afghan government

The relationship between the US and the Afghan government has been a tumultuous one, with the US invading Afghanistan in 2001 to overthrow the Taliban government and capture Osama bin Laden. The US has since been involved in a war in Afghanistan, which has been described as the US's longest war.

The US has provided billions of dollars in aid to Afghanistan, and has also been involved in training the Afghan security forces. However, the relationship has been strained at times, with the US criticising the Afghan government for corruption and the Afghan government criticising the US for not doing enough to help them.

In 2020, the US and the Taliban signed a peace deal, which set a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. However, the US continued to carry out air strikes against the Taliban, and the Taliban continued to attack Afghan security forces and civilians.

In 2021, the US announced that it would withdraw its troops from Afghanistan by September 2021. The Taliban then took control of the country, and the Afghan government collapsed.

The US has since evacuated thousands of people from Afghanistan, and has provided humanitarian aid to the country. However, the US has not recognised the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan.

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