The Ever-Growing Taliban Forces In Afghanistan: A Concerning Rise

The Taliban is an Islamic fundamentalist group that returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021 after waging a twenty-year insurgency. The group's harsh rule has seen a crackdown on women's rights, a neglect of basic services, and a floundering economy.

The Taliban's military, known as the Islamic Emirate Armed Forces, is estimated to have a manpower of 170,000. The group's first iteration was created in 1997 after the Taliban took over Afghanistan following the end of the Afghan Civil War. However, this was dissolved in 2001 after the downfall of the first Taliban government following the United States' invasion of Afghanistan.

The Taliban's military was officially re-established in November 2021 after the Taliban's victory in the War in Afghanistan and the collapse of the U.S.-backed Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. The Taliban's forces fought against the Afghan government and a U.S.-led coalition of forces. The Taliban's victory was facilitated by support from Pakistan, where many Taliban leaders found safe haven.

The U.S. military spent years training Afghan soldiers to fight insurgents. However, the Afghan National Army collapsed in a matter of days, with the Taliban capturing the country. This was due to various factors, including illiteracy, corruption, incompetence, and a lack of faith in the Kabul government.

The Taliban's victory was facilitated by support from Pakistan

The Taliban's victory in Afghanistan was facilitated by support from Pakistan. Pakistan's government and military generally favoured a Taliban victory in Afghanistan. Here are some reasons why:

• Pakistan was created in 1947 as a Muslim nation, and Islam was the glue that was supposed to hold together many otherwise disparate communities with diverse linguistic and ethnic identities. However, in 1971, a large portion of Pakistani territory in the east dominated by the Bengali-speaking community broke away to become Bangladesh. That loss made the Pakistani government particularly paranoid about the western territories of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which have large Pashtun or Pashto-speaking populations. Pakistan established madrassas in these territories to emphasise and teach a particularly strict brand of Islam in the hopes that Islamic nationalism would suppress Pashtun nationalism. Taliban leaders, who also espoused Islamic nationalism, were trained in those madrassas.
• Pakistani officials worry about the border with Afghanistan and believe that a Taliban government could ease their concerns. Since 1947, Afghan governments have rejected the Durand Line, which separates Pakistani Pashtun-dominated territories from Afghanistan. Afghanistan, home to a Pashtun majority, claims these territories as a part of a "Pashtunistan" or traditional Pashtun homeland. Pakistan’s government believes that the Taliban’s ideology emphasises Islam over Pashtun identity.
• It is imperative for Pakistan to have a Pakistan-friendly government established in Afghanistan. Pakistan accuses India of seeking to exploit its ethnic and linguistic divisions to destabilise and break up the country. India’s good relationship with former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s government did nothing to assuage this concern. A Taliban government could help Pakistan counter India, including by providing a haven for anti-India jihadi groups.

Pakistan continues to be a major source of financial and logistical support for the Taliban. The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency has supported the Taliban from their inception with money, training, and weaponry. The ISI also maintains strong ties with the Pakistan-based Haqqani network, a militant group that works closely with the Taliban. The Taliban own real estate in Pakistan and receive large donations from private individuals in the country.

The Taliban's victory was also facilitated by the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan. The US completed its troop withdrawal in August 2021. The Taliban's swift offensive came as the United States withdrew its remaining troops from Afghanistan as outlined in a 2020 peace agreement with the group.

The Taliban's first iteration of its armed forces was dissolved in 2001 after the downfall of its first government

The Taliban's armed forces were defeated and many fighters left the movement or retreated to sanctuaries in Pakistan. In May and June 2003, high-ranking Taliban officials proclaimed that the Taliban regrouped and were ready to wage a guerrilla war to expel US forces from Afghanistan. Omar assigned five operational zones to Taliban commanders such as Dadullah. Dadullah took charge in Zabul province.

The Taliban spent several years regrouping, and launched a re-escalation of the insurgency campaign in 2006. The Taliban's victory in 2021 was facilitated by support from Pakistan. Although Pakistan was a major US ally before and after the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, elements of the Pakistani government maintained strong logistical and tactical ties with Taliban militants.

The Taliban's air force had five supersonic MiG-21MFs and 10 Sukhoi-22 fighter-bombers

The Taliban's air force was first established in 1996, after the group took control of Afghanistan following the end of the Afghan Civil War. The air force was equipped with five supersonic MiG-21MFs and 10 Sukhoi-22 fighter-bombers. The Taliban's air force was short-lived, however, as it was dissolved in 2001 following the downfall of the Taliban government and the United States' invasion of Afghanistan.

In 2021, the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan and re-established their air force, which is now referred to as the Islamic Emirate Air Force. The Taliban's current air force is made up of aircraft captured from the defeated Afghan National Army, including UH-60 Black Hawks, Mil Mi-24s, Mil Mi-8s/Mil Mi-17s, A-29 Super Tucanos, Cessna 208s, and C-130 Hercules.

The Taliban's army relies heavily on captured hardware from the defeated Afghan National Army

In terms of infantry equipment, the Taliban seized M4 carbines, M16 rifles, night-vision goggles, body armor suits, communication equipment, and shoulder-mounted grenade launchers. These U.S.-made firearms are replacing Russian-made AK-47s and AK-74s that were previously carried by most Taliban fighters. The Taliban's army also relies on U.S.-made small arms and other weaponry captured from Afghan military outposts, such as machine guns, mortars, and artillery pieces, including howitzers.

The Taliban's rapid acquisition of U.S. military equipment has raised concerns among current and former U.S. officials, who worry that the weapons could be used to kill civilians or be seized by other militant groups, such as the Islamic State, to attack U.S. interests in the region. There are also concerns that the Taliban could sell off equipment they cannot use to countries like Iran, China, or Russia.

The Taliban's victory in the War in Afghanistan and their subsequent acquisition of U.S. military hardware can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the Afghan National Army suffered from low morale and lacked faith in the Kabul government. This was partly due to the government's failure to provide death benefits to the families of slain soldiers, which affected the troops' willingness to fight and led to high attrition rates. Additionally, the Afghan National Army struggled with leadership issues, as many of their generals were incompetent or corrupt. Illiteracy was also a significant problem, with some leaders unable to read maps or file basic paperwork.

Furthermore, the Afghan National Army faced challenges such as equipment maintenance due to a lack of education among their troops. Basic tasks, such as ordering spare parts, became difficult, and they even struggled with simple tasks like figuring out the proper grid coordinates for artillery rounds. The Afghan National Army also dealt with high death rates, which meant a constant flow of new recruits who needed basic training. As a result, they could not advance enough soldiers to learn more complex skills, and the army as a whole lacked the necessary training and expertise to function effectively without U.S. support.

The Taliban, on the other hand, fought with ideological fervor and a strong will to rid the country of foreign invaders, values that are deeply enshrined in Afghan identity. This motivated them to fight harder and made them more willing to kill and be killed than their opponents. The Taliban's superior motivation, combined with the Afghan National Army's weaknesses and the withdrawal of U.S. forces, ultimately led to the Taliban's victory and their acquisition of significant U.S. military hardware.

The Taliban's victory was also facilitated by the lack of faith in the Kabul government

The Taliban's victory in Afghanistan was facilitated by a lack of faith in the Kabul government. The Taliban fought with ideological fervor to rid the country of foreign invaders, a value enshrined in Afghan identity. Conversely, the Afghan National Army was plagued by illiteracy, corruption, incompetence, and a lack of faith in the government.

The Taliban's ideological fervor was a significant factor in their victory. The Taliban were willing to kill and be killed to achieve their goals, and this fervor was a powerful motivator for their soldiers. In contrast, the Afghan National Army struggled with low morale and high attrition rates. Many Afghan soldiers ended up deserting or not reenlisting due to various issues, such as being deprived of SIM cards to call their families.

The lack of faith in the Kabul government was also a significant factor in the Taliban's victory. The average Afghan spent one-fifth of their income on bribes, and many actively or passively supported the Taliban due to government corruption. The government was seen as fundamentally illegitimate, and when ordinary people lost faith in their government, they also lost faith in the foreigners who propped it up.

The Taliban's victory was also facilitated by the shortcomings of the U.S. training effort. The U.S. concentrated too much on teaching tactical infantry skills while neglecting higher-level expertise in logistics, planning, training, and command and control. The U.S. training effort was also hindered by factors beyond its control, such as the lack of education in Afghanistan, one of the world's poorest countries.

The Taliban's victory can also be attributed to foreign support, particularly from Pakistan. Elements of the Pakistani government, including the military and intelligence services, maintained strong logistical and tactical ties with the Taliban. Pakistan's support helped sustain the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.

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