Russia's Belarus Annexation: What's Happening And Why?

Russia and Belarus are already part of a supranational union called the Union State, which was established in 1999 with the stated aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through economic and defence policy integration. However, there are speculations and reports that Russia plans to absorb Belarus by 2030, effectively annexing the country. This plan is detailed in a leaked document from the Kremlin, outlining a comprehensive guide to the unofficial annexation of Belarus through economic, military, political, and social measures. The document also reveals Russia's intention to establish a continuous military presence in Belarus and its goal of pushing back Western influence in the region.

Russia's plans to absorb Belarus by 2030

The document sets out three possible approaches to achieving this goal: short-term (until 2022), medium-term (until 2025), and long-term (by 2030). The short-term and medium-term plans focus on increasing Russia's influence in Belarus and integrating the country into Russia's economic and military structures. The long-term plan, with a timeframe of seven years from 2023, involves the formal absorption of Belarus into the Russian Federation, restoring what Russia considers a piece of "historical Russia".

The strategy for Belarus appears to mirror Russia's plans for Ukraine, albeit with less direct means. Russia aims to comprehensively "Russify" Belarusian society, reducing the influence of nationalist and pro-Western forces. The political, financial, business, and education systems of Belarus would be fully integrated into Russia, and the Belarusian army would become de facto part of the Russian military. Additionally, the number of Russian bases in Belarus would increase, allowing Moscow to expand its military presence significantly.

The publication date of the document is notable, as it was produced in the summer of 2021 when Vladimir Putin was comparing himself to empire-building Russian Czar Peter the Great. This timing indicates that Putin's ambitions for a new Russian Empire, which includes the absorption of Belarus, were already taking shape at that point.

The leaked document provides insight into Russia's imperial ambitions and its intentions towards its neighbouring countries. While the plan for Belarus does not involve direct military conquest like in Ukraine, it nonetheless demonstrates Russia's determination to exert control and expand its influence in the region.

The Union State of Russia and Belarus

The history of the formation of the Union State dates back to the Community of Belarus and Russia, which was founded on 2 April 1996, following agreements in 1995 that established a Russian military presence in Belarus. The basis of the union was strengthened on 2 April 1997 with the signing of the "Treaty on the Union between Belarus and Russia", which changed the name to the Union of Belarus and Russia. Several additional agreements were signed on 25 December 1998, aiming to provide greater political, economic, and social integration.

The Union State is ruled through the Supreme State Council, which includes the member heads of states, respective governments, and both chambers of parliaments. The current president of the Supreme State Council of the Union State is Alexander Lukashenko, who has held the position since 2000. The union grants citizenship to citizens of both Belarus and Russia, allowing for freedom of movement and residence within the territory of the other country.

In recent years, there have been speculations and reports suggesting that Russia intends to absorb or annex Belarus. A leaked document from the Kremlin's Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation, dated back to the summer of 2021, outlines a plan for the unofficial annexation of Belarus through economic, military, political, and social measures. The long-term plan, with a target date of 2030, aims for the formation of a common "union state" under Russian leadership. This has raised concerns among Western nations, as a successful annexation would bring Russia's borders closer to NATO members Lithuania and Poland.

The military sphere is a key aspect of the speculated annexation, with plans for the Belarusian army to become de facto part of the Russian military and an increase in the number of Russian bases in Belarus. Additionally, the announcement of an agreement to station Russian tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory has further escalated tensions.

Russian military presence in Belarus

Russia and Belarus have a long history of military cooperation. In 1995, agreements were signed that established a Russian military presence in Belarus. The two countries are formally part of a "union state", with the stated aim of deepening their relationship through economic and defence policy integration. In 2009, they also began joint military officer training programs designed to integrate the military structures of the two countries.

In recent years, there have been reports of Russia amassing troops in Belarus and expanding joint military drills. In February 2022, Russia held large-scale military exercises in Belarus, which were described as defensive in nature, aimed at repelling outside aggression from Ukraine and NATO. However, after the exercises concluded, many of the 30,000 Russian troops stationed in Belarus crossed the border into Ukraine as part of President Vladimir Putin's invasion.

In October 2022, following Russia's mobilization of military reserves, it was reported that thousands of Russian troops had returned to Belarus, along with hundreds of pieces of military hardware. Satellite imagery obtained by RFE/RL showed more than 300 tents set up in three locations over the past month, which could house up to 7,500 troops. It is unclear if more tents will be erected, and there has been no public explanation from Russia regarding the purpose of these camps.

The presence of Russian troops in Belarus has raised concerns about the possibility of another incursion into Ukraine from the north. However, analysts suggest that this could also be a bluff by Russia and Belarus to distract Kyiv and draw Ukrainian forces away from their counteroffensive in the east and south.

In addition to the troop buildup, there have been reports of Russia's plans to absorb Belarus by 2030. A leaked document from the Russian presidential administration, allegedly produced in summer 2021, outlines a strategy for the unofficial annexation of Belarus through economic, military, political, and social measures. The document suggests that the Belarusian army would become de facto part of the Russian military, with an increase in the number of Russian bases in the country.

While the extent and intentions of Russia's military presence in Belarus remain uncertain, it has certainly added to the tensions in the region and contributed to fears of a wider conflict.

Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus

Russia has moved tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus, a country that shares borders with three NATO members: Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. This move is seen as a political message to the West, and an attempt to intimidate NATO into reducing its support for Ukraine.

On 26 March 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was preparing to deploy nuclear warheads on Belarusian territory. This was in response to the UK supplying Ukraine with Challenger II tanks with depleted uranium cores, and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's request for Russian tactical nuclear weapons. Putin stated that the weapons would be for the Iskander-M ground-launched ballistic missiles and 10 Belarusian aircraft that had been upgraded by Russia to deliver nuclear weapons.

The Union State

Russia and Belarus are already part of a "union state", formed in 1999 with the aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through economic and defence policy integration. However, a document allegedly leaked from the Russian presidential administration in early 2023 suggests that Russia plans to absorb Belarus by 2030. The document outlines a strategy for the unofficial annexation of Belarus via economic, military, political, and social measures, with the objective of full absorption into a "union state" with Russia.

International Response

The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus has been met with condemnation from the international community, including the US, NATO, and the EU. The Lithuanian representative to the UN warned that Belarus is breaching its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapon state. The US, NATO, and the EU have all stated that this announcement does not change their strategic nuclear posture.

Analysis

While the movement of nuclear weapons to Belarus is seen as a political signal, some experts argue that it does not pose a higher or lower threat to NATO. However, it does open new avenues for a short-range nuclear attack on US allies, including Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova, and Ukraine. It also provides additional coverage of the Baltics, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Finland.

Belarus's opposition

In 1999, a Freedom March was held in the Belarusian capital of Minsk to protest against unification with Russia. This, along with the election of Vladimir Putin as Russian President, forced Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to cancel his plans for a union state and maintain the independence of Belarus.

Lukashenko has repeatedly rejected the notion of Belarus formally joining Russia, stating that it would mean war. He has emphasised Belarus's role in establishing the Union State and its ability to build close relations without becoming a unitary state. However, following the 2020 Belarusian presidential elections, Lukashenko became indebted to and dependent on Russia for support, allowing for greater Russian political, economic, and military control.

The disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which was met with the jailing of opposition candidates and nationwide protests, further accelerated the erosion of Belarusian sovereignty. The United States and the European Union responded by no longer recognising Lukashenko as the country's president. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a prominent figure in the Belarusian opposition, has spoken out against the Russian takeover, highlighting its impact on global security, regional stability, and the lives of the Belarusian people.

A 17-page internal strategy paper, allegedly produced by Putin's administration, outlines Russia's plans to absorb Belarus by 2030 through economic, military, political, and social measures. This has been referred to as the creeping annexation of Belarus and is similar to Russia's approach to Ukraine. The publication date of this document is notable, as it was produced in the summer of 2021 when Putin appears to have made the decision to extinguish Belarusian and Ukrainian independence.

The gradual annexation of Belarus by Russia has significant consequences for the stability and security of the region, and the international community must confront the changing geopolitical landscape and potential for further destabilisation.

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