Belarus' Involvement: Geopolitical Interests And Regional Influence

Belarus has been involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict by allowing Russia to use its territory to stage the invasion of Ukraine. Belarus also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets. There have been reports that Belarus has sent its own troops to fight alongside Russia, although this has been denied by the country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko. Lukashenko has been accused of supporting Russia in the war to reciprocate Russian President Vladimir Putin's help in maintaining his own political power.

Belarus's Lukashenko gains financially and politically from supporting Russia

Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war has been a source of controversy, with many questioning the benefits for the country. However, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has gained both financially and politically from supporting Russia.

Financial Gains

Since the war began, Belarus has become more dependent on Russia economically, with Russia pledging $1.5 billion in loans to Belarus, agreeing on low gas prices, and deferring debt payments. Russia's share of Belarus's trade has also increased, rising from 49% in 2021 to 58% in mid-2022 and exceeding 60% in the fall. This has been partly due to the contraction of Belarus's trade with the West and the loss of the Ukrainian market.

Additionally, Russia has allowed Belarus to use its ports for the shipment of oil products, and Minsk is now buying oil at below-market prices. Russia has also extended nearly $1.7 billion in credit to Belarus for import substitution projects, and Belarusian banks have been designated as guarantors for government procurement in Russia, making it easier for Belarusian companies to access public tenders.

Political Gains

Lukashenko's support for Russia has also yielded political gains, as it has allowed him to maintain power and strengthen his position domestically. By backing Russia, Lukashenko has further isolated Belarus from the West, increasing his country's dependence on Russia and reducing external pressure on his regime. This has provided him with more leverage in negotiations with Russia and has likely contributed to Russia's decision not to cut off assistance completely.

Lukashenko's relationship with Russia has also granted him a degree of international recognition and influence. For example, he played a crucial role in ending the Russian Wagner Group rebellion in 2023 and has negotiated the stationing of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Furthermore, Lukashenko's support for Russia has helped to divert attention from his regime's human rights abuses and political oppression, with the international community focusing primarily on Russia's actions. This has allowed Lukashenko to maintain his rule and avoid further condemnation or sanctions that could have destabilized his government.

Lukashenko's grip on power is strengthened by his alliance with Putin

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been in power for 30 years, making him one of the world's longest-serving and most ruthless leaders. Lukashenko has been accused of stealing elections, crushing dissent, and dismantling democracy. To maintain his grip on power, he has relied on financial and military support from Russia and its President, Vladimir Putin.

Section 1

Lukashenko's alliance with Putin has strengthened his position domestically and internationally. In 2020, Lukashenko claimed victory in an election that was widely considered fraudulent by international experts. This sparked an unprecedented public uprising, with hundreds of thousands of Belarusians protesting the election results. Putin offered financial and military support to help Lukashenko suppress the protests, and warned foreign powers not to interfere. This enabled Lukashenko to silence the opposition with brute force, attacking protesters with water cannons, tear gas, and stun grenades.

Section 2

The Belarusian leader's reliance on Russian support has isolated him from the West. Since the disputed election, Belarus has faced a series of international economic sanctions, further pushing Lukashenko away from Western powers and towards Putin. This has limited Lukashenko's ability to maintain an independent or neutral stance on issues such as the war in Ukraine. By hosting Russian troops and weapons, Lukashenko has demonstrated his loyalty to Putin, despite the popular will of the Belarusian people to maintain distance from Russia.

Section 3

Lukashenko's grip on power is also strengthened by his access to Russian funds. Throughout his rule, he has relied heavily on cheap Russian energy and subsidies to keep his regime afloat. This has created a situation where Lukashenko is dependent on Russian financial support, which Putin can leverage to exert influence over Belarus. Additionally, the presence of Russian troops in Belarus can be advantageous for Lukashenko, as it deters potential rallies and protests against his regime.

Section 4

The alliance between Lukashenko and Putin is further solidified by their personal relationship. The two leaders have known each other for years and meet regularly. This close relationship allows Lukashenko to gain favour with Putin, who has a strong influence over his neighbour. For Putin, having a friendly leader in Belarus provides strategic benefits, such as expanded military capabilities and influence in the region.

Section 5

In conclusion, Lukashenko's grip on power is strengthened by his alliance with Putin through financial and military support, isolation from the West, access to funds, and a personal relationship. However, this reliance on Russia also creates vulnerabilities for Lukashenko, as his regime becomes increasingly dependent on Russian backing.

Belarusians are unable to speak out against Lukashenko

Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict can be traced to its authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1994. Lukashenko's grip on power has been characterised by the suppression of dissent and the curtailment of media freedom, resulting in international sanctions and his labelling as "Europe's last dictator". Here are four to six paragraphs detailing why Belarusians are unable to speak out against Lukashenko:

The human rights situation in Belarus has deteriorated significantly since the 2020 elections, which were widely believed to be fraudulent. This has led to a wave of emigration, with an estimated 100,000-200,000 people fleeing to neighbouring European Union countries and Ukraine. Those who remain find it increasingly difficult to express their opinions freely without fear of persecution and arrest. This climate of fear has resulted in self-censorship and a chilling effect on free speech.

Since 2020, Belarus has detained more than 1,000 political prisoners, according to the US State Department. The government has also targeted journalists and media workers, with at least 497 detained during the first eight months of 2021. The crackdown has extended to Belarusian nonprofit and human rights organisations, with an estimated 129 groups forced to shut down. This widespread repression has created an environment where citizens fear speaking out against Lukashenko and his regime.

Lukashenko has also fostered an environment where speaking Belarusian, one of the country's two official languages, is a political act. While Russian and Belarusian are technically equal as official languages, Lukashenko has made no secret of his preference for Russian, going so far as to declare it a "world-class language" while disparaging Belarusian as a "poor" language. As a result, speaking Belarusian has become a form of resistance against Lukashenko's regime, with the language gaining popularity among exiles and in cyberspace. However, speaking Belarusian in public can attract unwanted attention from the authorities, further limiting the ability of Belarusians to express dissent.

The education system in Belarus also reflects the bias towards Russian. While Belarusian is offered as a medium of instruction in schools, it is not widely taught, and only a small minority of students receive their education in the Belarusian language. This contributes to the perception that Belarusian is a lesser language and discourages its use in public life, further limiting the avenues for expression of anti-government sentiment.

The dominance of Russian in the public sphere and the suppression of Belarusian contribute to the challenges faced by Belarusians in speaking out against Lukashenko. The language dynamic is a powerful tool in shaping public opinion and influencing the narrative surrounding the regime. By marginalising Belarusian, Lukashenko reinforces the association of his rule with Russian influence and normalises the suppression of dissent.

In conclusion, the climate of fear created by Lukashenko's authoritarian rule, coupled with the suppression of media freedom and the marginalisation of the Belarusian language, have severely limited the ability of Belarusians to speak out against the regime. This dynamic has enabled Lukashenko to pursue policies that align with his personal interests, including supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine, without significant domestic opposition.

Belarus is a strategic location for Russia's invasion

Before the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory. However, the Russian troops did not leave as scheduled, and Belarus allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory. This gave Russia the shortest possible land route to Kyiv. Belarus also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets.

Belarus's involvement in the invasion was met with international condemnation, and several countries, including the US, UK, Canada, and Japan, imposed sanctions against Belarus.

Lukashenko's threats of nuclear weapons are taken seriously

In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Lukashenko's threats of nuclear weapons are taken seriously due to several factors. Firstly, Belarus's proximity to Ukraine and its shared border enable Russian forces to utilise Belarusian territory as a strategic staging ground for their invasion. This was evident in February 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with troops and military equipment amassing in Belarus under the guise of joint military exercises.

Secondly, the close relationship between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot be overlooked. Lukashenko has been accused of stealing elections, crushing dissent, and dismantling democracy in Belarus, leading to international sanctions. Putin, however, has supported Lukashenko, offering financial and military aid to maintain his grip on power. This dynamic has pushed Lukashenko closer to Putin and limited his ability to maintain a neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Additionally, Lukashenko's threats are taken seriously due to his control over the Belarusian state apparatus and his ability to mobilise his supporters. By stoking fears of external aggression and presenting himself as a strongman, Lukashenko can consolidate power and justify his actions. The presence of Russian troops in Belarus further bolsters his position and provides a deterrent against potential uprisings.

Moreover, Belarus's decision to revoke its non-nuclear status and pursue a new military doctrine that allows for the potential use of nuclear weapons is concerning. While Russia maintains control over the weapons, the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus marks a significant shift in its security posture. This move has raised alarm among neighbouring NATO countries, particularly Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as the US and other Western powers.

Finally, Lukashenko's statements indicate his willingness to use nuclear weapons under certain circumstances. In an interview, he asserted that Belarus had no plans to attack anyone, but if a single foreign soldier stepped into Belarus, he would be "completely ready" to use nuclear weapons. This statement, combined with his close alliance with Putin, underscores the seriousness of his threats.

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