Belarus-Russia Alliance: Is It Fraying At The Edges?

As of November 2024, there is growing concern that Belarus may be turning against Russia as the war in Ukraine continues. Belarus has long been considered a close ally of Russia, with the country's president, Alexander Lukashenko, allowing Russian troops to use Belarus as a staging ground for the invasion of Ukraine. However, recent events suggest that this relationship may be changing.

In November 2024, human rights activists reported that Belarus had arrested hundreds of people for their support of Ukraine. A report by the Viasna human rights center found that at least 1,671 Belarusians were detained for their anti-war stance or for expressing solidarity with Ukraine, with at least 200 of them being sentenced to prison terms ranging from one to 25 years. Additionally, the Belarusian government has denied adequate medical care and contact with families to political prisoners, according to human rights activists.

Despite this apparent crackdown on dissent, Lukashenko has also pardoned a small number of political prisoners, which has been interpreted as a signal that he is open to dialogue with the United States and the European Union, which have imposed sanctions on Belarus due to its involvement in the war.

In terms of military support for Russia, Belarus has conducted military exercises near its border with Ukraine and deployed troops to the border. However, President Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that he will not send Belarusian soldiers to fight alongside Russia, understanding that most Belarusians oppose the war. Dozens of Belarusian military officials have resigned from the armed forces in protest, and some have even joined volunteer battalions in Ukraine to fight against Russia.

While Belarus has allowed Russia to station soldiers and equipment on its territory, and launch attacks on Ukraine from Belarusian soil, it has stopped short of committing its own troops to the battle. This may be due to the risk of sparking further outrage within Belarus and losing power, as well as the limited capacity of the Belarusian army to significantly impact the war in Russia's favor.

Belarus's support for Russia in the invasion of Ukraine

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory, and Russian troops did not exit the country as scheduled. Belarus also allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets. There have been several reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine fighting alongside Russians, although the Belarusian leader, Aleksander Lukashenko, has dismissed these claims, stating that the Belarusian Armed Forces would not participate directly in the conflict. Lukashenko has also assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he will not involve his nation's armed forces on Russia's side.

In addition to providing military support, Belarus has also been complicit in Russia's invasion by allowing the transportation of military equipment from Belarus into Ukraine and permitting Russian soldiers to be treated in Belarusian hospitals.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been met with opposition from its citizens, with protests being held and Belarusian soldiers expressing their opposition to participating in the war. Western countries have also condemned Belarus's role, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions.

The Belarusian government's reluctance to send soldiers into battle

President Lukashenko has stated that he will not deploy Belarusian soldiers to fight with Russia and that the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) will not participate directly in the conflict. This stance is despite Belarus allowing Russia to use its territory to stage part of the invasion and launch attacks on Ukraine. Lukashenko understands that most Belarusians oppose the war and that he does not have support within his ranks. Dozens of Belarusian military officials have resigned and some have even joined volunteer battalions in Ukraine to fight against Russia. There is a high degree of demoralization among both officers and conscripts, with many fleeing the country en masse.

The Belarusian government is also wary of the domestic opposition, as fully committing to Russia's war would spark further outrage within Belarus. There have been previous resistance movements against President Lukashenko, and he will want to retain power for as long as possible. Additionally, Lukashenko is aware that a deployment of Belarusian soldiers in a full-fledged war would represent a radical break with his cornerstone ideology of peace and stability, potentially costing him support from a critical part of Belarusian society.

While Russia has increased pressure on Belarus to assist in the war, Lukashenko has managed to maintain his distance. He has allowed Russia to use Belarus as a staging ground but has firmly refused to send Belarusian soldiers into Ukraine. This reluctance to commit Belarusian troops to the conflict may be due to Lukashenko's understanding of the domestic opposition to the war and the potential consequences for his regime.

The Belarusian opposition to the war

The exiled opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, has been a prominent figure in this movement. She has called for an alliance between democratic forces in Belarus and Ukraine, expressing her belief that "Ukraine will win this war". Tsikhanouskaya has also urged Belarusian soldiers to disobey orders to join the war and has sought to unite Belarusians in Belarus, the diaspora, and opposition figures in exile.

The Belarusian opposition's efforts extend beyond words. The railway partisans, a group of activists, have repeatedly sabotaged the country's rail network to prevent the transit of Russian troops and military equipment to Ukraine. This has caused significant embarrassment to the Lukashenko regime and led to harsh legislative changes, including the potential for the death penalty for such attacks.

Belarusian volunteers are also fighting for Ukraine as part of units like the Kastus Kalinouski regiment. They recognise that a Ukrainian victory is essential for a free Belarus, as a Russian success would only lead to further Russian domination in the region.

The opposition's activities have sparked a broader debate about the need for a more direct approach to opposing the Lukashenko regime. The Supraciu ("Resistance") movement and the ByPol organisation of former Belarusian police officers have gained prominence due to the war in Ukraine.

The Belarusian opposition understands that their country's fragile independence is at stake, and they are willing to risk harsh domestic repression to resist Russian aggression and the complicity of the Lukashenko regime.

The Belarusian government's crackdown on pro-Ukraine activists

The crackdown on dissent in Belarus began after the disputed 2020 election, in which Lukashenko claimed victory. The election sparked mass protests, with more than 100,000 people packing into central Minsk for four consecutive Sundays. The protests were met with violence from the authorities, with more than 450 documented cases of torture and ill-treatment of detainees, as well as reports of sexual abuse and rape.

The Belarusian government has also targeted independent media and journalists. In 2020, several independent journalists were arrested, and in 2021, the founder of the independent Telegram channel Nexta, Stepan Putilo, was added to a terrorism list by the Belarusian KGB. The channel, which had over a million subscribers, published user-generated videos, photos, and comments of the protests.

The crackdown on pro-Ukraine activists specifically has been motivated by Lukashenko's desire to maintain support from his long-term ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin. Belarus has been a key accomplice to Russia in the war, allowing Russian soldiers and equipment to be stationed on its territory and enabling Russia to launch attacks on Ukraine from Belarus. However, Lukashenko has stopped short of sending Belarusian soldiers into battle, understanding that most Belarusians oppose the war and that he does not have support within his ranks. Dozens of Belarusian military officials have resigned from the armed forces in protest, and some have even joined volunteer battalions in Ukraine to fight against Russia.

The potential for Belarus to de-stabilise the region

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia and has supported its neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Belarus has allowed Russia to station soldiers and equipment on its territory, and launch attacks on Ukraine from Belarus. However, the Belarusian government has stopped short of sending its soldiers into battle, as President Lukashenko understands that most Belarusians oppose the war, and that he does not have support within his ranks.

Despite this, there is potential for Belarus to de-stabilise the region. Firstly, Belarus has allowed Russia to deploy some of its tactical nuclear weapons in the country. This has been condemned by the Belarusian opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who stated that the deployment "grossly contradicts the will of the Belarusian people". The presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus has also been described as demonstrating the status of Belarus as a "puppet state" of Russia.

Secondly, there are concerns that Belarusian troops could join Russian forces in Ukraine. While this course of action would be risky for both Putin and Lukashenko, and the Belarusian army is too small to turn the tide of the war significantly, it could still de-stabilise the region. Belarus's direct participation could provoke another uprising against Lukashenko, as Belarusian society is overwhelmingly against the country's participation in the war. More than 90% reject the idea of joining on the side of Russia, and sending Belarusians to war could provoke a serious wave of discontent within the country.

Furthermore, the presence of Belarusian troops could cut off supply lines for weapon deliveries to Ukraine. This fear is clear from a Western perspective, but it is difficult to assess the degree to which Lukashenko remains a rational actor, and how his perceptions of reality differ from those of the West.

Finally, as the war progresses, Belarusian and Russian decision-makers' assessments of the situation may change, and they may decide that the costs of not sending Belarusian troops into Ukraine outweigh those of sending them. Therefore, to avoid armchair psychoanalysis, it is necessary to closely monitor tangible changes in military activity in Belarus.

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