The Complex Geopolitical Dance: Understanding Pakistan's Presence In Afghanistan

Afghanistan and Pakistan share a 2,640-kilometre border known as the Durand Line, which was established in 1893. The Durand Line was drawn to limit the influence of the British Raj and the Emirate of Afghanistan in the contested Pashtun tribal areas.

Since Pakistan's independence in 1947, relations between the two countries have been strained. Afghanistan was the only country to vote against Pakistan's admission to the United Nations, and there have been territorial disputes and conflicting claims. Pakistan has supported the Taliban, and there are concerns that the group could become a puppet regime for Pakistan. Pakistan has also been accused of using its ISI spy network to aid the Taliban and other militants. Conversely, Pakistan has accused Afghanistan of sheltering terrorist groups that launch attacks on Pakistan.

Pakistan's policy on Afghanistan

Pakistan's policy towards Afghanistan has been uneasy since the inception of their bilateral relations. Afghanistan has historically shown disdain for the Durand Line, viewing it as a colonial legacy. Pakistan, on the other hand, has accused Afghanistan of using it as an excuse to destabilise the region.

Pakistan's policy towards Afghanistan has been influenced by various factors, including the presence of terrorist groups, the role of foreign powers, and the issue of refugee repatriation. Here is an overview of Pakistan's policy on Afghanistan:

Countering Terrorist Groups

Pakistan has been pressured by the United States to take stronger action against terrorist groups operating within its borders, such as the Haqqani network and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Pakistan's response has been mixed, with some officials denying links to these groups and others acknowledging them as a liability and calling for time to address the issue.

Trade and Economic Relations

Pakistan and Afghanistan have substantial trade linkages, with Afghanistan being Pakistan's largest trading partner. Pakistan seeks to deepen these economic ties and undertake joint connectivity and energy projects to enhance economic integration. Pakistan is also assisting Afghanistan in capacity building in various sectors, including agriculture, banking, railways, military, and diplomacy.

Refugee Repatriation

Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees for decades and is working with Afghanistan and international organisations for their safe, dignified, and voluntary return to their homeland. There are currently around 2.8 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan.

Border Security

Pakistan has emphasised the need to strengthen border security and has called on the US to eliminate sanctuaries for terrorists on the Afghan side of the border. Pakistan has also initiated border fencing, mining, and manning efforts to enhance security along the border.

Peace and Non-Interference

A key principle of Pakistan's policy towards Afghanistan is to work together to bring peace to the region and respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Pakistan has participated in various international forums aimed at stabilising Afghanistan, such as the Kabul Process and the International Contact Group on Afghanistan.

People-to-People Contacts

Pakistan aims to strengthen people-to-people contacts with Afghanistan, including through educational exchanges and scholarships for Afghan students. Pakistan has provided scholarships to almost 4,000 Afghan students and has constructed schools, hostels, and university faculties in Afghanistan.

Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban

The ISI has provided the Taliban with training, arms, experts, and fundraising help, particularly in the Gulf states. Pakistani advisers have accompanied the Taliban on missions inside Afghanistan, and the ISI is particularly close to the Haqqani network within the Taliban. Pakistan's support for the Taliban stems from its desire to create a sphere of influence in Afghanistan, blocking its regional rival, India. Pakistan also aims to prevent the rise of a strong and centralised military in Afghanistan, which could threaten its interests.

The relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban has had significant consequences. The Taliban's seizure of power in Afghanistan has strained Pakistan's relationship with the US and worsened its already shaky reputation in the West. It has also led to increased sectarian tension in Pakistan due to the Taliban's anti-Shiite stance. Additionally, Pakistan now faces the challenge of dealing with a potential influx of Afghan refugees and the economic impact of the Taliban's rule.

While Pakistan has denied providing support for a forceful takeover of Afghanistan, it has been accused of harbouring Taliban fighters and providing hospital treatment for wounded Taliban fighters. The Taliban's relationship with Pakistan is murky, and individuals within the Taliban are in touch with their Pakistani counterparts. The Taliban's victory in Afghanistan may have emboldened other terrorist groups, such as the Pakistani Taliban or Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which have launched attacks against the Pakistani military.

Despite the complexities and challenges, Pakistan remains key to peace in Afghanistan. It has used its leverage to press the Taliban to engage in peace talks and has expressed its interest in a peaceful and stable Afghanistan. However, the dynamic relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban continues to have significant implications for the region and beyond.

The Durand Line

Pakistan, on the other hand, inherited the Durand Line agreement after its independence in 1947 and considers it a legitimate border. Pakistan believes that it automatically inherits the border as the successor state of British India, and that boundary changes must be made bilaterally. Pakistan has attempted to establish fences and border posts along the disputed border, but these efforts have been met with resistance from Afghanistan.

The Pashtun people

The Pashtuns speak the Pashto language, which belongs to the Eastern Iranian branch of the Iranian language family. Dari serves as the second language of Pashtuns in Afghanistan, while those in Pakistan and India speak Hindi-Urdu and other regional languages as their second language.

There are an estimated 350-400 Pashtun tribes and clans, with a total population of around 49 million worldwide. The Pashtun people are united by a common language, Pashto, as well as Sunni Islam and a common social code called Pashtunwali, which governs ethical behaviour and customs.

The origins of the Pashtun people are debated, even among the Pashtuns themselves. One Pashtun tradition asserts that they are descended from Afghana, grandson of King Saul of Israel. Another theory suggests that Pashtuns are descended from a variety of ethnicities, including Persians, Greeks, Arabs, Turks, Mongols, and others.

Most Pashtuns are sedentary farmers, combining cultivation with animal husbandry. Some are migratory herders and caravaners, while many serve in the military. Smaller numbers hold political posts.

Kinship is the basis of Pashtun society, with tribes consisting of kinsmen who trace descent through the male bloodline from a common tribal ancestor. Tribal genealogies establish rights of succession, inheritance, and land use, as well as the right to speak in tribal council (jirga).

Pashtun culture is highlighted in the works of Herodotus and explored by Alexander the Great during his expedition to the region in 330 BC. The Pashtun people are known for their ancient system of law and governance, Pashtunwali, which promotes self-respect, independence, justice, hospitality, love, forgiveness, revenge, and tolerance, especially towards strangers or guests.

Pashtuns are also known for their romantic literature and traditional dances, such as Attan, Khattak, Mahsud, and Waziri. They are highly social people, with strong connections throughout neighbourhoods and villages.

The largest concentration of urban Pashtuns can be found in the city of Karachi, Pakistan, with other important Pashtun cities including Peshawar, Quetta, Zhob, and Mardan, among others. Outside of South Asia, significant Pashtun diaspora communities can be found in the Persian Gulf Arab states, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Iran, Australia, Canada, and Russia.

The impact of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan

Pakistan emerged as an independent country in 1947, following the Partition of India. Afghanistan was the only country that voted against Pakistan's admission to the United Nations. Since then, the relationship between the two countries has been strained.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has had a significant impact on the region, and the fallout could further complicate matters. Here are some key consequences of the US withdrawal:

• Impact on the Afghan Government: The government in Kabul is likely to lose influence and legitimacy, making it more challenging to maintain stability and effectively govern the country.
• Taliban's Negotiation Stance: The Taliban may lose interest in negotiating peace with the US and Afghanistan's government. Instead, they may be emboldened to pursue a more aggressive strategy, taking advantage of the power vacuum left by the US departure.
• Rise of Extremism: Extremist groups, including the Islamic State branch in Afghanistan and the remnants of Al-Qaeda, will have more freedom to organize, recruit, and launch terrorist attacks.
• Refugee Crisis: The instability and conflict in Afghanistan could lead to a significant influx of refugees fleeing the country, putting a strain on neighbouring countries like Pakistan and Iran.
• Regional Instability: The withdrawal of US and NATO forces may trigger a geopolitical power struggle in the region. External powers such as Iran, Turkey, Russia, India, and Pakistan may seek to increase their influence and support various factions within Afghanistan, leading to further instability and conflict.
• Women's Rights and Education: The Taliban's ban on girls' education and their repressive policies towards women could be further exacerbated without the presence of US and international forces, who previously helped to enforce and promote human rights.
• Economic and Social Progress: Afghanistan has made significant progress in recent decades regarding economic growth, social advancement, education, and women's rights. However, the US withdrawal and a potential Taliban takeover could jeopardize these gains and push the country back into isolation and extreme religious rule.
• US-Pakistan Relations: The US withdrawal has strained the relationship between the US and Pakistan. There is a perception that Pakistan has not done enough to restrain the Taliban and has even supported their insurgency. This has led to criticism and potentially damaged the two countries' strategic partnership.
• Security Risks: The withdrawal of US troops increases the security risks for the region. The Taliban's ties with extremist groups and their refusal to break ties with Al-Qaeda pose a significant threat. Additionally, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) has ramped up violence and targeted Chinese interests in Pakistan, creating a complex security situation.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has had far-reaching consequences, impacting not only Afghanistan but also the broader region. The future of Afghanistan remains uncertain, and the international community is faced with the challenge of mitigating the negative impacts of the US departure while navigating a complex geopolitical landscape.

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