The Complex China-Afghanistan Relationship: Allies Or Opportunists?

China and Afghanistan have had a long history of relations, with trade relations dating back to at least the Han dynasty and the profitable Silk Road. In the 18th century, diplomatic relations were established between the two countries, and presently, they share a 92km border.

During the Cold War, China extended economic aid and multi-million-dollar loans to Afghanistan, and since the withdrawal of Soviet troops, China-Afghan relations have improved significantly in the 21st century. China has become Afghanistan's largest trading partner and has provided millions of dollars in aid.

China's influence and diplomatic role in Afghanistan have been growing, and it could potentially help broker peace in the war-torn country. While China does not recognize the reinstated Islamic Emirate, it continues to negotiate issues of trade, investment, and aid with the Taliban government.

China's interests in Afghanistan are driven by its strategic position and natural resources. China aims to revive business ventures and infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, to strengthen its influence in South and Central Asia. However, China also has security concerns, particularly regarding the prevention of Uyghur separatists from using Afghanistan as a base for separatist activities in Xinjiang.

Overall, while China and Afghanistan do not have formal diplomatic recognition, their growing engagement and strategic interests indicate a trend towards intensified cooperation and a potential alliance.

China's non-interference policy

China squares this circle by framing its engagement in a way that softens the perceived breadth and depth of its interference. It does this through two tactics: host-government consultation and limited means and goals. China gains consent from the sovereign body whose internal affairs it is interfering in, thereby claiming that its actions do not constitute interference as they are not an unwanted unilateral imposition. It also reiterates a country's sovereignty and territorial integrity when engaging in any mediation roles.

The Taliban's stance on Uyghur separatists

Historical Context:

Uyghurs, a mostly Muslim Turkic ethnic minority, have a long history of migration between China and Afghanistan. Since the 1950s, many Uyghurs have fled religious and political persecution in China's Xinjiang region, seeking refuge in Afghanistan. Well-established family, trade, and pilgrimage networks connecting the two countries made Afghanistan a natural choice for Uyghurs fleeing Communist rule.

The Taliban's Response to Uyghur Separatists:

The Taliban have worked with the Chinese government to address their concerns about Uyghur separatists and cross-border militancy. They have pledged not to allow Afghan soil to be used against any country, including China. Specifically, they have committed to preventing the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), a Uyghur militant group, from using Afghanistan as a base for attacks against China. This commitment was reiterated by Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen, who stated that most ETIM members had already left Afghanistan.

Human Rights Concerns:

Despite the Taliban's assurances, there are reports of human rights abuses and persecution of Uyghurs in Afghanistan. Uyghur advocates claim that the Chinese government has pressured the Taliban to deport Uyghurs to China, where they face a high risk of detention and imprisonment. Additionally, the Taliban's treatment of women and girls' education has been a significant source of concern. While the Taliban have enacted policies that appear less repressive than their previous regime, there are still reports of persecution, forced marriages, and restrictions on education and employment for women. The Taliban claim that these issues are being addressed gradually and that their primary focus is on establishing security and stable governance.

Regional Dynamics:

The situation involving Uyghur separatists is further complicated by regional dynamics. China has sought to strengthen security cooperation with neighboring countries, particularly Tajikistan, to prevent instability and militancy from spilling over into its territory. Additionally, China has leveraged its economic power, offering investment and development assistance to the Taliban-led government in exchange for security guarantees. However, the Taliban also face pressure from other regional powers, such as Russia and Iran, who have their own interests and agendas in Afghanistan.

In conclusion, the Taliban's stance on Uyghur separatists is a delicate balance between addressing China's security concerns and managing regional dynamics while also navigating internal pressures and human rights issues. While the Taliban have made commitments to prevent cross-border militancy, the situation on the ground remains complex and uncertain, with reports of human rights abuses and ongoing persecution of the Uyghur community.

China's economic interests in Afghanistan

China is Afghanistan's largest foreign investor and has provided telecom equipment, purchased rare mineral rights, and invested in copper and oil extraction. China has also been involved in infrastructure development in Afghanistan, including building fiber optic cables and participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The Belt and Road Initiative is a significant economic interest for China in Afghanistan. Afghanistan's strategic location makes it an important link between Central and South Asia, and developing its infrastructure through the BRI would provide China with a shorter route to the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, and the Arabian Sea. A stable Afghanistan is crucial for the success of the BRI, and China has invested in Afghanistan's peace process and provided economic aid to promote stability.

China has also sought to extract oil in Afghanistan, signing a 25-year-long, multi-million-dollar contract with the Taliban in 2023. This project is expected to bring jobs and income to Afghanistan, with the Taliban having a 20% partnership in the deal, increasing to 75% over time.

In addition to oil, China has invested in copper mining in Afghanistan, taking a 30-year lease for the Mes Aynak copper mines near Kabul in 2008. However, development of the mines has been plagued by violence and instability, and extraction has yet to begin.

Overall, China's economic interests in Afghanistan are driven by a combination of resource extraction, infrastructure development, and regional stability.

Diplomatic ties between China and the Taliban

China and Afghanistan have had trade relations since the Han dynasty, with the countries sharing a 92km border. In the 18th century, diplomatic relations were established between the two countries. However, China's ties with Afghanistan weakened after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, with the USSR installing pro-Soviet and anti-Chinese regimes in the country.

Since the withdrawal of Soviet troops, China-Afghan relations have improved significantly in the 21st century. China has an embassy in Kabul, and Afghanistan has one in Beijing. China has been Afghanistan's largest trading partner and has given millions of dollars in aid throughout the war.

After the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in 2021, China, like all other countries, did not recognize the reinstated Islamic Emirate. However, China has negotiated issues of trade, investment, and aid with the Taliban government. China's new ambassador to Afghanistan, Zhao Xing, was appointed in September 2023, and in December 2023, China accepted the credentials of Afghanistan's ambassador to China, Bilal Karimi, making it the first country to do so.

China's engagement with the Taliban is driven by its strategic interests in the region and Afghanistan's natural resources. China seeks to revive business ventures inside Afghanistan and prevent the export of extremism into its Xinjiang region, which shares a border with Afghanistan. China has also urged the Taliban to take measures to crack down on terrorist forces and ensure the safety of its citizens and projects in Afghanistan.

The Taliban, on the other hand, seeks foreign investment and is willing to work with China as long as there is no interference in its internal affairs. The group has responded positively to China's overtures and has committed to not allowing Afghanistan to be used as a base for attacks against other countries, including China.

China's relationship with the Taliban has been described as "mercantilistic" and driven by pragmatic interests rather than ideological concerns. Despite their differences, both sides seem willing to engage and find common ground, making China a crucial supporter of the Taliban-led Afghanistan.

China's role in Afghanistan's counter-terrorism efforts

• Ensuring a functioning government in Afghanistan: China wants to ensure that the Afghan government can maintain a monopoly on the use of violence and project its power throughout the country. This will help prevent potential instability and cross-border spillovers.
• Securing the China-Afghanistan border: China aims to prevent violent extremists from entering its territory through this border. To achieve this, China relies on the Taliban and also on security provisions from neighbouring countries like Tajikistan and Pakistan.
• Eliminating Uyghur militant groups: China wants the Taliban to eliminate Uyghur militant groups operating in Afghanistan, such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). China has exaggerated the threat of Uyghurs in terrorist organizations and used it to justify its crackdown on Uyghurs in Xinjiang.
• Protecting Chinese citizens and investments: China aims to protect its citizens and investments in Afghanistan. However, the lack of security in the country has hindered significant long-term investments.

To address these concerns, China has engaged in the following counter-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan:

• Military cooperation: China has reportedly built a base for the Afghan Armed Forces near Gaz Khan village in Wakhan District, Badakhshan Province, to strengthen counter-terrorism cooperation. China has also trained and supported the Afghan mujahideen during the Soviet-Afghan war and provided military assistance to help build Afghanistan's military mountain brigade in the Wakhan Corridor.
• Diplomatic engagement: China has actively engaged with the Taliban and participated in regional formats on Afghanistan. It has hosted negotiations between the Taliban and Afghan officials and facilitated peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government.
• Economic incentives: China has dangled economic incentives in front of the Taliban to extract security guarantees and address development challenges in Afghanistan. It has offered economic development through its Belt and Road Initiative and other investments, although security concerns have hindered significant investments.
• Multilateral cooperation: China has emphasized the importance of multilateral cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts. It has participated in various regional organizations and initiatives, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Quadrilateral Coordination Group, to address security concerns in Afghanistan.

While China has played a significant role in Afghanistan's counter-terrorism efforts, it has avoided taking on a leadership role and has instead preferred to remain on the sidelines, engaging through diplomatic and economic means rather than direct military intervention.

Frequently asked questions