Iran's Long Game In Afghanistan: A Story Of Subtle Strategy And Shifting Sands

Iran has historically struggled to protect and project its interests in Afghanistan, its tumultuous eastern neighbour. Tehran's activities in Afghanistan have not drawn the same outside attention as its operations in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and the Persian Gulf. However, Afghanistan remains an important and challenging arena of Iranian foreign policy.

Iran's interests in Afghanistan are complex. Tehran has traditionally focused on empowering Persian speakers in the country and protecting Afghan Shiites, who make up one-fifth of the Afghan population and have been subject to attacks by Sunni militants. Above all, Iran wants to see stability in Afghanistan. The Soviet occupation and subsequent instability sent millions of Afghan refugees into Iran, straining resources and public services. Tehran also fears that Saudi Arabia will exploit volatility in Afghanistan to cultivate proxies on its eastern flank.

While Iran and the United States are often at odds, their interests in Afghanistan are not mutually exclusive. Iran does not want to make Afghanistan an arena of conflict with the US. It will not target US bases and troops in Afghanistan, even in the event of escalating hostilities in the Persian Gulf. Iranian policymakers do want US forces to leave Afghanistan, believing that the situation can now be managed diplomatically.

Iran has deep cultural and linguistic ties with Afghanistan. The national language of Iran, Farsi (or Persian), is widely spoken in Afghanistan, and Iranians and Afghans share literature, television, and music. The city of Herat, the biggest city in western Afghanistan, was part of Iran into the nineteenth century and holds a historic place in Persian culture.

Religious identity has also formed an important cross-border connection. Both the pre-revolutionary Iranian monarchy and the Islamic Republic have invested heavily in the Afghan Shiite community, particularly among the Hazara ethnic group.

Iran's relationship with Afghanistan has been fraught at times. During the Soviet occupation in the 1980s, Iran supported a smattering of Shiite and Hazara militias. After the Soviet withdrawal, these militias coalesced into a pan-Shiite group called Hezb-e-Wahdat-e Islami Afghanistan, but it was relatively minor compared to Sunni mujahideen groups backed by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.

In 1998, a Pakistan-linked group allied with the Taliban killed 11 Iranian diplomats and a journalist at the Iranian consulate in Mazar-e Sharif, nearly leading to a military incursion by Iran. Despite this history, Iran has come to accept that accommodating the Taliban is necessary to build a more peaceful future for Afghanistan.

Iran's interest in stability in Afghanistan

Afghanistan's stability is of utmost importance to Iran, and there are several reasons for this. Firstly, Iran does not want a repeat of the refugee crisis that occurred during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, which saw an influx of around three million Afghan refugees into Iran. This placed a significant strain on resources and public services in Iranian towns and cities. Secondly, Tehran fears that Saudi Arabia will take advantage of any instability in Afghanistan to cultivate proxies on Iran's eastern border.

Iran has traditionally focused its efforts in Afghanistan on empowering Persian speakers in the country and protecting Afghan Shiites, who make up around one-fifth of the population and have been subject to horrific attacks by Sunni militants. Iran's national language, Farsi (or Persian), is widely spoken in Afghanistan, and the two countries share deep cultural and linguistic ties. The city of Herat, for example, was part of Iran until the nineteenth century and holds historical significance in Persian culture.

Iran's relationship with Afghanistan is also influenced by its complicated history with the Taliban. While Iran has come to accept that accommodating the Taliban is necessary for a more peaceful future in Afghanistan, there have been several instances of conflict between the two groups. In 1998, for instance, a Pakistan-linked group allied with the Taliban killed eleven Iranian diplomats and a journalist at the Iranian consulate in Mazar-e Sharif, nearly leading to a retaliatory military incursion by Iran.

In addition to seeking stability in Afghanistan, Iran has three other strategic aims in the country: maintaining good relations based on mutual economic benefits, preventing Afghanistan from plunging into civil war to avoid negative domestic consequences, and ensuring that Afghanistan does not become a base for any form of aggression against Iran.

To achieve these goals, Iran has employed a range of political tools, including diplomacy, intelligence gathering, economic activities, and cultural initiatives. Iranian policies have focused on strengthening economic relations with the Afghan government and regional stakeholders, developing Shiite and pro-Iranian charitable and educational institutions, and curbing drug trafficking.

Iran's interests in Afghanistan are not always aligned with those of other regional powers, and there is a history of competition and conflict with countries like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. However, Iran's goals in Afghanistan do overlap to some extent with those of the United States, particularly in the desire to eliminate safe havens for extremist groups like ISIS and the Taliban.

The Taliban and Iran's relationship

Iran and the Taliban have had a complicated relationship since the Taliban emerged in the 1990s. The two countries have historically shared deep cultural ties, but their relationship has been strained by the Taliban's mistreatment of Afghanistan's Shiite minority and the 1998 killing of Iranian diplomats in Mazar-e-Sharif. However, in recent years, Iran has sought to improve relations with the Taliban, particularly in the wake of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Iran's strategic interest in Afghanistan is motivated by several factors, including ideology, economic expansion, and security concerns. Iran is concerned about the neighbouring Sunni majority in Afghanistan and wants to make Afghanistan a hub for its products in Central Asia. Iran also has security concerns about spillover violence from Afghanistan and the presence of US troops in the country. As a result, Iran has been willing to engage with the Taliban and even provide them with weapons, despite their ideological differences.

The relationship between Iran and the Taliban has improved significantly since the Taliban's return to power in 2021. Iran has held multiple meetings with Taliban officials, discussing issues such as border security, investment opportunities, and the treatment of Afghan refugees in Iran. Iran has also provided economic and military assistance to the Taliban and supported their efforts to achieve international recognition. In February 2023, Iran officially handed over the Afghan embassy in Tehran to Taliban diplomats, marking a significant step in formalising their ties.

However, there are still areas of tension between Iran and the Taliban, particularly around water rights and border clashes. Iran accuses the Taliban of restricting the flow of the Helmand River, which is crucial for irrigation in eastern Iran. This dispute has led to deadly clashes between Iranian and Afghan guards at the border, raising fears of a new conflict. Despite these tensions, both sides have issued measured statements and expressed a desire to de-escalate the situation.

Overall, the relationship between Iran and the Taliban has improved significantly in recent years, moving from mutual enmity towards the US to a more cooperative relationship. However, there are still areas of disagreement and tension that could potentially escalate into conflict if not carefully managed.

Iran's military presence on the Afghan border

Iran has been steadily increasing its military presence on the Afghan border since the Taliban returned to power in 2021. In July 2023, cellphone videos posted on social media showed columns of equipment from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and national armed forces (Artesh) being transported to the border, including main battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers, surveillance systems, and support assets. The air force has also reportedly put some of its eastern-based fighter jets on high alert.

In May 2023, a border clash broke out between the two sides, resulting in the deaths of at least two Iranians and one Taliban soldier. The clash was sparked by a dispute over water rights, with Iran accusing the Taliban of violating a 1973 treaty by restricting the flow of water from the Helmand River to Iran's parched eastern regions.

The border between Afghanistan and Iran is 921km long and traverses a generally arid, inhospitable region. The two countries have a long history of disputes over water resources, which have occasionally escalated into violent conflict. In 1998, for example, a Taliban raid on the Iranian consulate in Mazar-e Sharif left nine Iranians dead and almost led to a retaliatory military incursion by Iran.

Iran's recent military movements on the Afghan border may be a precautionary defensive measure, but they could also be preparations for a cross-border incursion. Tehran appears to be exploring several options for securing its interests in Afghanistan, including working with the Taliban, waging a proxy war, or direct intervention.

Iran's complicated history in Afghanistan

Iran's relationship with Afghanistan has been fraught with complications, with Iranian activities in the country often shrouded in ambiguity. The country's primary interests in Afghanistan are the empowerment of Persian speakers and the protection of Afghan Shiites, who make up about one-fifth of the country's population.

Iran has a tumultuous history with its eastern neighbour, with Tehran struggling to protect and project its interests within Afghanistan's borders. The Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and subsequent instability resulted in an influx of Afghan refugees into Iran, straining resources and public services.

Iran's relationship with the Taliban has been particularly complex. While the two have come close to open warfare in the past, such as the 1998 massacre of Qods Force operatives and a reporter at the Iranian consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif, Iran has also pursued accommodation with the Taliban to promote stability and prevent Saudi influence on its eastern flank.

Iran's policy in Afghanistan has been influenced by deep cultural and linguistic ties between the two countries. Iran's national language, Farsi (or Persian), is widely spoken in Afghanistan, and both countries share literature, television, and music. Additionally, the city of Herat, the biggest city in western Afghanistan, was part of Iran until the nineteenth century and holds significant cultural importance.

Religious identity has also played a crucial role in Iran's involvement in Afghanistan. The Iranian monarchy and the Islamic Republic have historically invested in the Afghan Shiite community, particularly the Hazara ethnic group, by funding mosques, universities, and charitable institutions.

Iran's relationship with Afghanistan has been marked by a delicate balance of working with and deterring the Taliban, especially in provinces with significant Shiite populations, such as Herat, Farah, and Nimruz. While the Qods Force has explored potential cooperation with the Taliban on issues like local governance, they have also worked to avoid conflict and manage de-escalation.

Iran's future intentions in Afghanistan

• Preventing Sunni Extremism: Iran has a strong interest in protecting and empowering Persian speakers and Shia Muslims in Afghanistan, who make up about one-fifth of the country's population. Iran wants to prevent Sunni extremist groups, such as ISIS, from carrying out attacks on Shia communities. This interest in protecting Shia Muslims may lead Iran to seek tactical agreements with the Taliban to prevent attacks on Shia areas.
• Stability and Refugee Crisis: Iran desires stability in Afghanistan to prevent another wave of refugees from entering the country. The Soviet occupation and subsequent instability resulted in approximately three million Afghan refugees fleeing to Iran, straining its resources and public services. Iran wants to avoid a repeat of such a scenario.
• Countering Saudi and Pakistani Influence: Tehran fears that Saudi Arabia will exploit instability in Afghanistan to cultivate proxies on its eastern flank. Additionally, Iran is wary of Pakistani influence in Afghanistan and has historically opposed Pakistan's attempts to install Pashtun-dominated governments in Kabul. Iran may seek to counter Saudi and Pakistani influence by increasing its engagement with the Taliban and other local factions.
• Opposition to US Presence: While Iran does not want to make Afghanistan a direct arena of conflict with the United States, it supports the withdrawal of US forces. Iranian policymakers believe that the situation in Afghanistan can now be managed diplomatically without the need for a US military presence.
• Improving Relations with the Taliban: Iran has shifted its approach towards the Taliban, recognizing the need for accommodation to build a more peaceful future for Afghanistan. This shift is evident in Iran's willingness to engage in talks with the Taliban and the Afghan government to address security concerns and fill the diplomatic gap created by the departing US forces.
• Covert or Overt Support for Taliban Takeover: Iran may covertly or overtly support a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan while seeking tactical and strategic agreements to contain the group's activities and prevent attacks on Shia communities. Iran respects the Taliban's resilience and shares a common hostility towards the United States.
• Proxy Warfare: Alternatively, Iran could employ proxy warfare by utilizing militias, such as the Fatemiyoun Brigade, composed of Afghan fighters trained by the Qods Force. Iran has experience in using such tactics in Iraq and Syria and may attempt to prevent full Taliban control through these means.
• Direct Intervention: If Iran's primary goal is to support Afghanistan's central government and protect the Shia population, it may opt for direct military intervention. This could involve establishing a buffer zone on the Afghan side of the border and creating land bridges to Shia areas. However, such an intervention would be costly and require a substantial military presence.
• "Syrianification" or "Iraqification": There is a possibility that Iran may attempt to replicate its strategies in Syria or Iraq by using proxy militias to set up a Shia safe haven in Herat province or other areas. This could lead to the emergence of a powerful, Iranian-supported military force in Afghanistan, similar to what has happened with Iraq's al-Hashd al-Shabi.
• Attacks on US Targets: Iranian elements could take advantage of the chaos in Afghanistan to launch or sponsor operations against US embassy facilities or diplomats in Kabul or other locations.

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