Israel's Lucrative Arms Trade: Azerbaijan's Top Supplier

Israel has been accused of supplying weapons to Azerbaijan, which has been used in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict against Armenia. The weapons include ballistic missiles, air defence systems, kamikaze drones, and more. While Israel has declined to comment on the use of its weapons in the conflict, the sales have raised concerns among human rights groups and sparked debates about Israel's arms export policies.

Azerbaijan's victory in Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijan's victory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War was the result of a complex interplay of factors, including military strategy, technological advancements, and geopolitical dynamics. The conflict, which lasted from September 27 to November 10, 2020, resulted in a significant shift in the control of territories in the region. Here is a detailed analysis of Azerbaijan's victory:

Military Strategy:

Azerbaijan's military strategy played a crucial role in its victory. They launched a well-coordinated offensive along the line of contact, established after the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. The clashes were particularly intense in the less mountainous districts of southern Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijani forces could utilise their superior weaponry and tactics more effectively. Azerbaijan's widespread use of drones was a game-changer, allowing them to conduct precise strikes and gather critical intelligence on Armenian positions. The combination of drone strikes and conventional artillery barrages overwhelmed Armenian defences, inflicting heavy losses on their armoured formations and military personnel.

Technological Advancements:

Azerbaijan's military success was also attributed to its acquisition of advanced weapons systems and technology. Israel, in particular, supplied Azerbaijan with powerful weapons, including ballistic missiles, air defence systems, and kamikaze drones. This gave Azerbaijan a significant advantage over Armenia, as they could conduct effective air campaigns and neutralise Armenian air defences. Other countries, such as Russia and Turkey, also provided military support and weapons to Azerbaijan, enhancing their combat capabilities.

Geopolitical Dynamics:

The geopolitical dynamics of the region influenced the outcome of the conflict. Azerbaijan had the support of Turkey, which provided military experts, diplomatic backing, and even Syrian mercenaries. The relationship between Azerbaijan and Turkey is strong due to ethnic, cultural, and historic ties, with Turkey recognising Azerbaijan's independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Additionally, Azerbaijan's oil wealth allowed for a higher military budget, enabling them to purchase advanced weapons and equipment. In contrast, Armenia faced challenges in securing adequate military support and resources, which contributed to their defeat.

Outcome and Impact:

Azerbaijan's victory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in significant territorial gains. They recaptured one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh and regained control of the seven surrounding districts that were previously occupied by Armenian forces. This shifted the balance of power in the region and allowed Azerbaijan to consolidate its control. The defeat ignited anti-government protests in Armenia, and the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, faced strong criticism for accepting the peace deal.

The conflict also had broader implications, with Russia and Turkey's involvement affecting their standing in the region. Russia, which had a military base in Armenia, maintained a neutral stance and did not directly intervene, despite its treaty obligations. On the other hand, Turkey's support for Azerbaijan, including military and diplomatic assistance, strengthened its influence in the South Caucasus and reinforced its activist foreign policy.

In conclusion, Azerbaijan's victory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War was the result of effective military strategies, advanced weaponry, and geopolitical alliances. The conflict's outcome reshaped the region's dynamics and had far-reaching consequences for all the parties involved.

Israel's role in the conflict

Israel has been quietly supplying weapons to Azerbaijan, which has helped the country recapture the Nagorno-Karabakh region from Armenia. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a 24-hour assault on the region, which led to the exodus of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians—more than 80% of the enclave's residents.

Israel and Azerbaijan have had a strategic alliance for the past two decades, with Israel selling weapons worth billions of dollars to the country. In return, Azerbaijan supplies Israel with oil and access to Iran. This relationship was taken up a level in 2011 with a $1.6 billion deal that included a battery of Barak missiles for intercepting aircraft and missiles, as well as Searcher and Heron drones from Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI).

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), more than 60% of Azerbaijani weapons imports came from Israel between 2017 and 2020, making up 13% of Israeli exports during the same period. SIPRI research reveals that Azerbaijan purchased a wide variety of drones, missiles, and mortars from Israel between 2010 and 2020.

Israeli equipment, including drones, missiles, and heavy artillery, played a significant role in Azerbaijan's recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh. This has led to scrutiny and criticism of Israel, with some arguing that the country's "fingerprints are all over the ethnic cleansing" in the region.

Despite the scrutiny, there is little political opposition in Israel to selling arms to Azerbaijan. Efraim Inbar, an expert on Israel-Azerbaijan relations, notes that arms sales are considered good for Israel, and there is no great sympathy for Armenia, which is seen as an Iranian ally.

The diplomatic and military relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan is expected to continue, with both countries having interests in containing Iran.

The arms trade between the two countries

Israel and Azerbaijan have a long-standing strategic alliance, with Israel supplying Azerbaijan with weapons worth billions of dollars. In return, Azerbaijan provides Israel with oil and access to Iran. This relationship has come under scrutiny in recent years, particularly following Azerbaijan's victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in which Israeli weapons played a significant role.

Military ties

Azerbaijan has long been a major buyer of Israeli weapons, with Israeli defence exports to the country beginning in 2005. Between 2016 and 2020, Israel supplied nearly 70% of Azerbaijan's arsenal, according to experts. This included a wide range of weapons systems, such as ballistic missiles, air defence systems, kamikaze drones, and more. The two countries also have a history of military cooperation, with Israel providing support for Azerbaijan's campaign to recapture Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.

Oil and geopolitics

The relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan is not just about weapons. Israel relies on Azerbaijan for a significant portion of its oil imports, with Azerbaijan supplying at least 40% of Israel's oil needs. Additionally, the two countries share a common interest in containing Iran, with which both have tense relations. Azerbaijan has allowed Israel to use its territory to monitor and gather intelligence on Iran, and there are reports that Israel used Azerbaijan as a transit point to smuggle stolen Iranian nuclear archive files in 2018.

Controversy and scrutiny

The arms trade between Israel and Azerbaijan has faced controversy and scrutiny, particularly following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. There are concerns that Israeli weapons have contributed to human rights violations and ethnic cleansing in the region, with over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh as a result of the conflict. This has sparked a debate in Israel about the country's permissive arms export policies and the lack of legal restrictions on weapons exports based on human rights concerns. However, there is little political opposition in Israel to selling arms to Azerbaijan, as arms sales are considered good for the country's economy and military industry.

The diplomatic relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan

Israel and Azerbaijan have enjoyed strong diplomatic ties since the latter's independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Israel was one of the first countries to recognise Azerbaijan's independence, and diplomatic relations were established in 1992.

Azerbaijan is one of the majority-Muslim countries that have developed bilateral, strategic, and economic relations with Israel. The two countries have strengthened their ties since 2011, and in 2022, Azerbaijan announced it would be opening an embassy in Israel, marking the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations. This move signified the deepening connection between the two nations, driven by shared strategic, energy, trade, and investment interests that transcend religious differences.

Israel and Azerbaijan share a common interest in countering the threat posed by Iran. Azerbaijan is a critical source of oil for Israel, meeting around 40% of its needs, and is also a staunch ally against Israel's arch-enemy. Israel, in turn, has been a significant arms supplier to Azerbaijan, providing advanced military technologies that have contributed to its campaigns in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The relationship between the two countries extends beyond energy and military cooperation. Over 100 Israeli firms have established operations in Azerbaijan, contributing to sectors such as agriculture, education, and medicine. There is also collaboration in various fields such as health, education, trade, technology, tourism, transportation, communication, agriculture, and livestock.

The strong diplomatic relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan has been described as a "strategic partnership" by both sides, and it continues to grow and deepen, despite regional conflicts and shared concerns.

The future of the Israel-Azerbaijan relationship

The recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has brought attention to the Israel-Azerbaijan relationship, with Israeli weapons playing a significant role in Azerbaijan's military campaign. Israel has been accused of complicity in ethnic cleansing due to their weapons sales to Azerbaijan, and there have been calls for sanctions and punitive measures against Baku. However, it is unlikely that Israel will face significant consequences from its Western allies due to the importance of its relationship with Azerbaijan.

Moving forward, the Israel-Azerbaijan relationship is expected to remain strong. Oil and arms sales will continue to be a key aspect of the relationship, and Israel will likely continue to support Azerbaijan's efforts to contain Iran. There is little political opposition in Israel to selling arms to Azerbaijan, and the country is seen as a more important partner than Armenia. Additionally, Azerbaijan's recent victory in Nagorno-Karabakh has secured its control over the region, which may reduce tensions with Armenia in the short term.

However, there are still concerns about the potential for further conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Some worry that an emboldened Azerbaijan will attempt to invade Armenia, and there are ongoing border disputes between the two countries. Israel will need to navigate this complex situation carefully, as it seeks to balance its relationship with Azerbaijan against potential backlash from its Western allies and concerns about human rights violations.

In conclusion, the future of the Israel-Azerbaijan relationship is likely to be characterized by continued cooperation and arms sales, with Israel supporting Azerbaijan's efforts to contain Iran. However, Israel will also need to be mindful of the potential for further conflict in the region and the potential backlash from its Western allies.

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