Azerbaijan's Ongoing Conflict: War Or Mere Tensions?

Azerbaijan and Armenia have a long history of conflict, with tensions rising as the Soviet Union began to collapse in the late 1980s. The disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as Azerbaijani but populated and governed by ethnic Armenians, has been the trigger for violence since the late 1980s and early 1990s, when a bloody war resulted in a ceasefire in 1994.

Since then, there have been several outbreaks of violence, with a serious flare-up in 2016 and the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, which resulted in an Azerbaijani victory and a peace deal that saw almost 2,000 Russian peacekeepers installed in the region. However, in December 2022, Nagorno-Karabakh was seized by Baku, resulting in the expulsion of over 100,000 Armenians.

The conflict is further complicated by geopolitics, with Turkey closely tied to Azerbaijan and Russia allied with Armenia, although it also has good relations with Azerbaijan.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

The war was characterized by the use of drones, sensors, long-range heavy artillery, and missile strikes, as well as state propaganda and online information warfare. The widespread use of drones by Azerbaijan was crucial in determining the outcome of the conflict. Despite calls for de-escalation from the United Nations and other countries, three ceasefires brokered by Russia, France, and the United States failed to stop the conflict.

The capture of Shusha, the second-largest city in Nagorno-Karabakh, led to a ceasefire agreement that ended all hostilities from November 10, 2020. The agreement resulted in a significant shift in the control of territories in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, with approximately 2,000 Russian soldiers deployed as peacekeeping forces along the Lachin corridor connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. The war resulted in high casualties, with thousands of soldiers and civilians killed and wounded on both sides.

The conflict also highlighted the role of external powers, with Turkey providing military support to Azerbaijan and Russia brokering the final ceasefire agreement. The relative success of Azerbaijan in achieving its strategic goals through military force may have influenced the Russian decision to invade Ukraine in 2022.

Peacekeeping forces

Azerbaijan has a long history of participating in international peacekeeping operations. Since 1999, the country has contributed to peacekeeping efforts in Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan. In 2019, Azerbaijan also joined the UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan.

The Azerbaijani Armed Forces consist of three branches: the Land Forces, the Air and Air Defence Force, and the Navy. The Land Forces number around 85,000 personnel, including the 2,500 men of the National Guard. The Air and Air Defence Force has about 8,000 personnel, while the Navy has approximately 2,200 members.

The peacekeeping forces of Azerbaijan are primarily supplied by the Land Forces, with some contributions from the Internal Troops. In March 2011, Azerbaijan deployed 94 peacekeepers with the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. The country also supported peacekeeping operations in Kosovo and Iraq in the past.

In Iraq, the Azerbaijani peacekeeping unit consisted of 14 officers, 16 sergeants, and 120 privates, totalling 150 troops. They were responsible for securing the hydroelectric power station and reservoir in Al Haditha from August 2003 until their withdrawal in December 2008.

Azerbaijan's participation in international peacekeeping operations demonstrates its commitment to global peace and security. The country's armed forces have contributed to stabilising efforts in various regions, showcasing their dedication to maintaining peace and protecting civilians in conflict areas.

Ethnic cleansing

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh has resulted in ethnic cleansing and forced migration on both sides. The region, recognised as part of Azerbaijan, is controlled by ethnic Armenians and was the trigger for the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This conflict resulted in the displacement of approximately 725,000 Azerbaijanis and 300,000-500,000 Armenians from both Azerbaijan and Armenia.

During the Soviet era, the predominantly Armenian-populated region was governed as an autonomous oblast within the Azerbaijan SSR. As the Soviet Union began to disintegrate in the late 1980s, the question of Nagorno-Karabakh's status re-emerged, and the parliament of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast passed a resolution requesting a transfer of the oblast from the Azerbaijan SSR to the Armenian SSR. Azerbaijan rejected the request, and ethnic violence ensued, with a series of pogroms taking place between 1988 and 1990 against Armenians and Azerbaijanis.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people and was followed by two decades of relative stability, which significantly deteriorated in the 2010s. The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 further escalated the conflict, resulting in thousands of casualties and a significant Azerbaijani victory. The war ended with a ceasefire agreement, but post-war skirmishes and violations continued, including a blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan in 2022.

The conflict has led to the expulsion and flight of ethnic groups from both sides, with the mass deportation of Azerbaijanis from Armenia taking place several times throughout the 20th century. The relocation of the Azerbaijani population during the Stalinist era, as well as the expulsion of Armenians from Azerbaijan, contributed to the homogenisation of the Armenian republic under Soviet rule. The census of 1979 showed that Azerbaijanis were the largest minority in Armenia, making up 5.3% of the population.

The conflict has also resulted in the destruction of cultural institutions and renaming of settlements and toponyms. The Agababa-Childir and Daralagoz ashig schools, for example, disappeared following the expulsion of Azerbaijanis from Armenia.

The ongoing conflict and its impact on the ethnic composition of the region have led to concerns about ethnic cleansing and the risk of genocide. The blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan has been viewed as a form of ethnic cleansing, and human rights observers and scholars have warned of the potential for genocide. The political analyst Eric Hacopian has likened the situation to "asking 100,000 Israelis to live under Hamas".

The conflict has resulted in a significant impact on the demographic character of the region, with forced migration and expulsion shaping the ethnic composition of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The ongoing tensions and military offensives continue to affect the lives and safety of those living in the region.

Geopolitics

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region is complex and has its roots in the collapse of the Soviet Union. The region is internationally recognised as Azerbaijani territory but has been controlled by ethnic Armenians since the early 1990s. The conflict is further complicated by geopolitics, with Turkey closely tied to Azerbaijan, and Russia maintaining good relations with both countries.

Armenia

Armenia is majority Christian and has historically had good relations with Russia. There is a Russian military base in the country, and both are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a military alliance. Armenia underwent a peaceful revolution in 2018, which saw protest leader Nikol Pashinyan become prime minister. Pashinyan has made controversial statements about the disputed region, such as "Artsakh is Armenia, full stop", angering Azerbaijan. Armenia has also diversified its foreign policy and sought to strengthen its relations with the EU and the US.

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan is majority Muslim and has strong cultural and historic ties with Turkey, which was the first country to recognise its independence in 1991. Both countries refer to their relationship as "one nation with two states". Turkey has provided military support to Azerbaijan, including military experts and Syrian mercenaries, and has held joint military drills with Azerbaijan.

Russia

Russia has sought to maintain good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and has sold weapons to both countries. It has a military base in Armenia and is bound by treaty to defend Armenia if attacked, but this does not include Nagorno-Karabakh or the other surrounding Azerbaijani regions seized by Armenian forces. Russia also has interests in the Caucasus region, and its influence there has dwindled due to the conflict.

Turkey

Turkey has no official relations with Armenia and shut its border with the country during the war in the 1990s. It has supported Azerbaijan in recent offensives and has been accused of facilitating the transfer of Syrian mercenaries to fight alongside Azerbaijani forces.

The West

The conflict has also highlighted divisions in the West, with NATO sending a high-level delegation to Baku, and the US sending mixed messages. While the US ambassador to Armenia attended a memorial service for Armenians who died fighting Azerbaijan, NATO has been accused of supporting "Islamist aggression against a Christian nation".

Peacekeeping Efforts

A Russian-brokered peace deal was signed in November 2020, ending six weeks of fierce fighting. The deal saw Azerbaijan hold on to several areas gained during the conflict, and Armenia agreed to withdraw its troops. Almost 2,000 Russian peacekeepers were deployed to monitor the truce, with Turkey also taking part in the peacekeeping process. However, this has not prevented further skirmishes and clashes in the region.

The role of Turkey

Turkey's role in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh is complex and driven by various factors, including ethnic, cultural, historical, and economic ties. Here are four to six paragraphs elaborating on Turkey's role:

Strong Ties with Azerbaijan: Turkey and Azerbaijan share strong ethnic, cultural, and historical bonds, often described as "two states, one nation." This close relationship forms the basis for Turkey's support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Turkey was the first country to recognize Azerbaijan's independence in 1991, and the two countries have since developed robust economic ties, with Azerbaijan becoming a significant investor in Turkey.

Opposition to Armenia: Turkey's fraught relationship with Armenia is another critical factor in its support for Azerbaijan. Turkey and Armenia have a history of tense relations, primarily due to the mass killings and deportations of Armenians by Ottoman Turks during the early 20th century, which Armenia considers a "genocide." Turkey denies these claims, creating a longstanding dispute. Additionally, Armenia's nationalist and pro-Western Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is viewed as a threat by Turkey, further straining relations.

Geopolitical Ambitions: Turkey's backing of Azerbaijan also aligns with its geopolitical ambitions in the region. By supporting Azerbaijan, Turkey seeks to establish itself as a regional power and secure a seat at the negotiating table for any future solutions to the conflict. Turkey aims to negotiate with Russia in the South Caucasus, preferably without Western actors, to increase its influence.

Military and Economic Support: Turkey has provided significant military and economic support to Azerbaijan. It is Azerbaijan's third-largest supplier of military equipment, after Russia and Israel, providing training to Azerbaijani officers and selling weapons such as drones and rocket launchers. Additionally, Turkey's gas imports from Azerbaijan have increased, and SOCAR, Azerbaijan's state oil company, has become a substantial investor in Turkey.

Syrian Scenario: Turkey's involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be understood through the lens of its actions in Syria. Turkey has pursued an assertive foreign policy, intervening militarily in Syria, Libya, and northern Iraq, and adopting a more aggressive approach in disputes with Greece and Cyprus. In both Syria and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Turkey has sought to protect its interests and expand its influence by supporting proxy forces and providing military assistance.

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has significant implications for the region, and Turkey's role has been crucial in shaping the dynamics between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While Turkey's support for Azerbaijan is multifaceted, it ultimately aims to secure its interests and assert its influence in the South Caucasus.

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