Azerbaijan's War Victory: Strategies And Secrets Unveiled

Azerbaijan's victory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War was the result of a combination of factors, including military strategy, technological advancements, and geopolitical dynamics. The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has a long history, dating back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

In the early 1990s, the First Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in Armenian control over Nagorno-Karabakh and several surrounding districts, leading to a ceasefire in 1994. However, tensions remained, and in 2020, the conflict escalated into the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. This time, Azerbaijan emerged victorious, reclaiming significant territories, including the strategic city of Shusha.

Azerbaijan's success can be attributed to several key factors:

- Military Strategy: Azerbaijan's military strategy, which included the use of drones, sensors, long-range heavy artillery, and missile strikes, proved effective against Armenian defenses.

- Technological Advancements: The use of advanced military hardware, such as Israeli-made Harop loitering munitions and Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones, gave Azerbaijan a technological edge over Armenia.

- Geopolitical Dynamics: Azerbaijan's close relationship with Turkey, a shared Muslim faith, and common Turkic ethnic identity provided diplomatic and military support. Additionally, Azerbaijan's oil wealth allowed for higher military spending, further enhancing its military capabilities.

- Armenian Miscalculations: Armenian leaders miscalculated the broader international environment, underestimated the role of Russia and Turkey, and failed to analyze the internal transformation of Azerbaijan, leading to a lack of preparedness.

The victory had significant consequences, shifting the balance of power in the region and leaving Armenia with a sense of military inferiority and isolation. The conflict also resulted in thousands of casualties and the displacement of civilians, highlighting the devastating impact of war.

Azerbaijan's use of drones

The drones also had a demoralising effect on Armenian troops and civilians. The sound of drones alone was enough to cause panic, and the Azerbaijani government used footage from drones recording their kills as highly effective propaganda.

The drones enabled Azerbaijani forces to discover Armenian forward and reserve positions, after which the positions would be shelled along with roads and bridges that could be used by reserves to reach the position. Once the Armenian position had been extensively shelled and cut off from reinforcement, superior Azerbaijani forces would move in to overwhelm it. This tactic was repeatedly used to gradually overrun Armenian positions.

The drones also enabled small countries to conduct effective air campaigns, potentially making low-level conflicts much more deadly. Close air support was provided by specialised suicide drones such as the Israeli-made IAI Harop loitering munition, rendering tanks vulnerable and suggesting the need for changes to armoured warfare doctrine. Another suicide drone, the Turkish-made STM Kargu, was also reportedly used by Azerbaijan.

Overall, Azerbaijan's innovative use of drones shifted the balance of power in the war, allowing them to discover and destroy Armenian targets with precision and conduct an effective propaganda campaign.

Turkey's support for Azerbaijan

Turkey has been a key supporter of Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The two countries share strong ethnic, cultural, and historic ties, and their relationship has been described as "one nation, two states". Turkey was the first country to recognize Azerbaijan's independence in 1918 and again in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Turkey has supported Azerbaijan politically, militarily, and economically. Politically, Turkey has refused to recognize the de facto independent republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (also known as Artsakh) and has demanded that Armenia withdraw from the region as a condition for establishing diplomatic relations. Turkey has also supported various indirect bilateral talks and trilateral dialogues between Azerbaijan and Armenia to resolve the conflict.

Militarily, Turkey has supplied Azerbaijan with arms, held joint military drills, and provided training to Azerbaijani officers. Turkey is Azerbaijan's third-largest supplier of military equipment, after Russia and Israel, and has sold combat drones and rocket launchers. Turkey may have also sent military drone operators to assist Azerbaijan in the recent conflict.

Economically, Turkey and Azerbaijan have a close partnership, with Turkey negotiating to buy natural gas from Azerbaijan and cooperating on infrastructure projects that bypass Armenia.

Armenia's weak hand

• Military Strategy: Armenian forces relied heavily on their large arsenal of Russian-built T-72 tanks and S-300 air defence systems, which proved ineffective against Azerbaijan's advanced drone technology. Armenia seemed unprepared for Azerbaijan's innovative use of drones, which shifted the balance of power.
• Geopolitical Dynamics: Armenia miscalculated the support it could expect from other powers. They failed to anticipate Turkey's direct involvement and underestimated the shifting dynamics between Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. Armenia also neglected the impact of a weakening international order, which gave Azerbaijan more latitude to pursue military action.
• Internal Politics: Armenia's leadership, particularly Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, made several miscalculations. Pashinyan's hardline nationalist position, including his repudiation of the OSCE's "Madrid Principles," alienated potential allies and signalled a lack of commitment to negotiations. Additionally, Armenia's military strategy shifted towards a "'new wars for new territories' approach, which further escalated tensions.
• Historical Context: Armenia's victory in the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in the 1990s created a sense of military superiority that influenced their strategic decisions in the second conflict. However, this victory also led to Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territories, creating a strong sense of revanchism in Azerbaijan.
• Resource Disparity: Azerbaijan's oil wealth allowed for a consistently higher military budget and the acquisition of advanced weapons systems from Israel, Russia, and Turkey. This gave Azerbaijan a significant technological edge over Armenia.

Azerbaijan's victory parade

The parade, which took place in Azadliq Square in the capital city of Baku, featured more than 3,000 military personnel, dozens of military vehicles, and a flyover of helicopters and fighter planes. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended the parade, standing alongside Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to review the troops. Erdogan reaffirmed Turkey's alliance with Azerbaijan and condemned Armenia.

The parade showcased much of the military hardware oil-rich Azerbaijan has purchased on the global arms market in recent years, including drones, tanks, and a variety of military vehicles. Also on display was equipment captured from Armenian forces, such as an armoured personnel carrier.

In his speech, Aliyev highlighted the role Turkish technology played in Azerbaijan's victory, specifically mentioning the Bayraktar drone. He also stated that the country was able to restore historical justice and blamed Armenia for starting the fighting.

The victory parade was a significant event for Azerbaijan, demonstrating the country's military strength and celebrating the successful conclusion of the conflict with Armenia.

The role of the Bayraktar TB2 drone

The Bayraktar TB2 is a medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) capable of remote-controlled or autonomous flight operations. It is manufactured by the Turkish company Baykar Makina Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş., primarily for the Turkish Armed Forces. The aircraft are monitored and controlled by an aircrew in a ground control station, including weapons employment.

The Bayraktar TB2 played a significant role in Azerbaijan's victory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. The TB2 is credited with shifting the balance of power in the conflict by negating Armenia's high-ground advantage. The TB2, along with other drones, was used to destroy Armenian artillery, infantry positions, and military vehicles, including BM-30 Smerch MLRS, T-72 tanks, and BMP-1 and BMP-2 IFVs. The drones were also used to destroy nine Osa and Strela-10 air defence systems.

The TB2's ability to carry out precise strikes and its small size, which allowed it to evade enemy reconnaissance, were crucial in the conflict. The TB2's high-definition cameras were also used to produce propaganda videos, which were posted online and broadcast on digital billboards in Baku.

The success of the TB2 in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War highlighted the importance of full-spectrum air defence and passive defence strategies. The TB2's vulnerability to air defences that are designed to counter it underscored the need for improved mobile SHORAD systems.

Overall, the Bayraktar TB2 played a pivotal role in Azerbaijan's victory, demonstrating the effectiveness of drone technology in modern warfare.

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