The Complex Relationship Between Iraq And Afghanistan: A Historical Perspective

Afghanistan and Iraq are two distinct countries in the Middle East. While both countries have experienced instability and foreign military intervention, they have distinct cultural, economic, and political characteristics. Iraq, for instance, is a middle-income country with a strong national identity, considerable infrastructure, and abundant oil resources. In contrast, Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world, lacking natural resources and human capital. Despite their differences, there are also some similarities between the two countries, particularly in terms of governance issues and the presence of competing militias.

Iraq's fear of a US withdrawal

Iraqs Fear of a US Withdrawal

Iraqis fear that a full withdrawal of US troops from their country could lead to a repeat of what happened in 2011 when the US withdrew and the Islamic State (ISIS) rose to power. This, in turn, would lead to a possible civil war or militia takeover.

A History of US Withdrawal

The US withdrew its troops from Iraq in 2011, but had to return in 2014 to stop the Islamic State's onslaught and slaughter of Iraqis. In 2020, the US began discussing a partial withdrawal of American combat troops from Iraq, and in 2021, President Joe Biden announced that he would end the US combat mission in Iraq by the end of the year.

The Fear of a Repeat

Iraqis fear that a full withdrawal of US troops could lead to a repeat of the rise of ISIS and the subsequent slaughter of thousands of Iraqis. This fear is not unfounded, as even with the presence of US troops, ISIS still poses a serious threat. In addition, a withdrawal could lead to a power vacuum that could be filled by competing sectarian forces, militias, and armed groups, leading to civil war.

The Impact of a Withdrawal

A US withdrawal could also have economic repercussions for Iraq. For example, the Trump administration threatened to freeze Iraq's central bank account held in New York, which could cause the dinar's value to plummet. A withdrawal could also lead to increased Iranian influence in Iraq, as well as a strengthening of Iran's expansionist agenda in the region.

The Way Forward

To assuage Iraqi fears, the US must communicate that its transition from a combat role to an advisory one does not mean a withdrawal of its commitments to Iraq. The US must also focus on investing in building Iraqi security forces' military and institutional capacity and depoliticizing its presence in the country.

The Iraqi government's corruption

Iraq is not in Afghanistan. However, the Iraqi government has been criticised for its corruption.

Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iraq has struggled to establish political stability, safety, and the rule of law. Corruption remains a significant problem in the country and is a core grievance among citizens. The country's governance system, known as muhasasa, is cited as a key challenge, as it has cemented sectarianism, nepotism, and state capture. While consecutive governments have promised to address corruption through economic and political reform, these promises have not been followed by sufficient action. This inaction is partly due to a reluctance to confront the systemic nature of corruption, weak institutions, and opposition from vested interests. As a result, Iraq lacks an adequate legal framework and well-equipped, independent anti-corruption institutions.

The country's recent history of political instability, violence, and authoritarianism have further contributed to weak institutions and rule of law. While sectarianism has decreased in recent years, it remains deeply entrenched in Iraq's governing system, exacerbating corruption challenges. The state's dominant position in the economy, an underdeveloped private sector, overreliance on oil, and the influence of militias have facilitated high levels of state capture.

Citizens' perceptions of corruption have worsened, and trust in the government and its institutions has declined. A powerful protest movement against corruption has emerged, transcending sectarian lines and demanding concrete reforms from the government.

Iraq's corruption is characterised by politically sanctioned corruption, where ruling political parties capture and compromise formal institutions of the state. This type of corruption has led to the abuse of the 'special grades' scheme within the bureaucracy, with political parties appointing officials to senior civil service positions to divert state resources for their benefit. These civil servants, protected by their links to party bosses, become the real decision-makers, free from accountability.

The post-2003 ethno-sectarian power-sharing arrangement, designed to ensure communal stability, has instead sustained an elite pact that enables political parties to capture state institutions and accumulate wealth at the expense of citizens. This has resulted in the misuse of government contracts, with costs inflated and profits shared between contractors and political parties.

Corruption has also infiltrated the police force, the judiciary, public services, land administration, tax administration, customs administration, and natural resources sectors. Bribery and gift-giving are widespread practices, despite being illegal. The lack of effective implementation of anti-corruption laws and the impunity with which public officials engage in corruption further exacerbate the issue.

The consequences of corruption in Iraq are severe, impacting various aspects of Iraqi society. It has led to increased poverty and unemployment, siphoning off billions of dollars from public funds into the pockets of government officials and special interests. It has also crippled the country's health and educational institutions, with inadequate funding allocations and a neglect of these sectors. The sectarian quota system in government employment further contributes to unemployment, as qualified applicants struggle to secure jobs due to a lack of connections or partisan affiliation.

Additionally, corruption has resulted in security instability and deterred international companies from investing in Iraq due to fears of blackmail and forced phony deals. This hinders the country's development, particularly in areas devastated by armed conflict.

While the current Iraqi government has presented a white paper on reforms to address the country's economic and financial problems, it faces an uphill battle against persistent corrupt trends and powerful individuals within the system.

The Iraqi army's ability to fight ISIS

In June 2014, the US started supplying weapons to the Kurdish Peshmerga and dropping food for refugees fleeing from ISIS. In August 2014, the US began airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq. These airstrikes were critical in halting ISIS's momentum and preventing a humanitarian crisis. The US-led coalition played a supporting role, contributing critical airpower to combat operations. For example, airpower halted ISIS's 2014 offensive, saving Baghdad, Erbil, and Kobani. Strategic airstrikes also targeted ISIS's cash reserves and oil business, which weakened their finances.

The Iraqi Army, with close air support from the US, retook the key Haditha Dam and recaptured the town of Barwana, killing 15 ISIS fighters. In July 2015, the US began coordinating airstrikes with a Kurdish-led offensive to retake the city of Mosul. In 2016, the Iraqi Army, with US air support, retook Tikrit, Fallujah, and Ramadi. In July 2017, the Iraqi Army, supported by US airstrikes, liberated Mosul, which was one of the largest urban battles in recent history.

Despite the success of the Iraqi Army in retaking territory from ISIS, the group remains a threat. In 2020, ISIS was contained to a small area and force capability, but it continues to carry out attacks in Iraq.

The US's role in Iraq

The US's relationship with Iraq has been characterised by several military interventions, including the Gulf War in 1991, which was a response to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. The US's most notable involvement in Iraq was the Iraq War, which lasted from 2003 to 2011. The conflict began with a US-led coalition invasion that overthrew the Ba'athist government of Saddam Hussein. The US withdrew its troops in 2011, but re-entered the conflict in 2014 at the head of a new coalition.

Since the Iraq War, the US has continued to provide military aid and training to Iraqi security forces, and has used its military bases in the country. The US has also assisted in the fight against ISIS, helping Iraq to achieve the milestone of liberating the country from ISIS in 2017.

The US has also been involved in attempts to stabilise Iraq's economy and governance. US bilateral assistance to Iraq focuses on economic reform, assistance to vulnerable groups, human rights, and democracy and governance. The US has contributed billions of dollars in humanitarian, demining, and stabilisation aid to conflict-affected and displaced Iraqis.

The US's security assistance to Iraq supports the development of a modern, accountable, and professional Iraqi military. US security programs also promote civilian oversight of the military, adherence to the rule of law, and respect for human rights. The US has also worked to strengthen the capacity of Iraq's civil society organisations and elected representatives.

In addition to military and security assistance, the US is one of Iraq's largest trading partners, and investment by US companies in Iraq has increased significantly in the last decade. The US has designated Iraq as a beneficiary developing country under the Generalized System of Preferences program, and US companies are active in Iraq's energy, defence, information technology, automotive, and transportation sectors.

The US has also supported Iraq's membership in international organisations, including the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the International Organization for Migration, the International Labour Organization, and the Arab League. Iraq is also a candidate for accession to the World Trade Organization.

The future of NATO's mission in Iraq

In February 2021, NATO agreed to increase the size of the NMI and expand its training activities to include more Iraqi security institutions and areas beyond Baghdad. This decision was made in response to a request from the Iraqi government and is intended to enhance the capabilities of Iraq's security forces. The expansion of the NMI will be gradual and based on the consent of the Iraqi government, with all activities conducted in full respect of Iraq's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The NMI coordinates with various international stakeholders, including the Global Coalition Against Daesh, the European Union, and the United Nations, to ensure a comprehensive approach to supporting Iraq. The mission also advises Iraq's professional military education institutions and focuses on areas such as policy and strategy, resource management, leadership development, and good governance in the security sector.

One of the key challenges for the NMI is the relatively short duration of staff deployments, which can make it difficult to establish strong relationships with Iraqis and fully understand their needs. However, the mission has been innovative in its approach by prioritizing high-quality and targeted advising, as well as diverse advisory teams composed of civilians and military experts from different countries. This diversity adds credibility to the mission and reduces the risk of pursuing individual national agendas.

The NMI has also recognized the importance of shared objectives with the Iraqi government, developing a defined set of long-term goals that are publicly available to ensure transparency and minimize friction. Additionally, the NMI has implemented "plans-on-a-page," which outline future activities agreed upon with Iraqi interlocutors, enabling advisors to continue the work of their predecessors and accelerate progress.

Looking ahead, NATO's commitment to increasing its presence in Iraq is expected to be gradual and based on the needs of the Iraqi government. The expansion may include advisory and capacity-building activities with additional ministries, such as the Interior Ministry and Justice Ministry, and extending support beyond Baghdad to other regions, such as the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

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